Forex
Dollar falls to two-month lows; Fed minutes loom large
© Reuters.
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar fell to a more than two-month low in early European trade Monday, adding to last week’s sharp losses on increased expectations that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate-hiking cycle.
At 03:20 ET (07:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.3% to 103.505, just above its lowest level since late August, extending its nearly 2% decline from last week – the sharpest weekly fall since July.
Dollar on back foot
The dollar has been on the back foot for the majority of the last week, after a string of soft labor market and inflation readings saw traders pricing in an even greater chance that the Fed was done raising interest rates, and that the central bank could begin trimming rates by as soon as March next year.
“The dollar’s decline has been broad-based, meaning that even the unloved Japanese yen has found a few friends,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
The focus is now largely on the of the Fed’s late-October meeting for more cues on monetary policy, due for release on Tuesday.
“This was the meeting where the Fed retained its tightening bias but included an acknowledgement that tighter financial conditions were doing some of the Fed’s work,” ING added. “The market seems in the mood to look out for some dovish headlines here, and this can prove a negative dollar event risk.”
Euro gains despite falling German producer prices
In Europe, rose 0.2% to 1.0926, benefiting from the weak dollar even after fell 11.0% on an annual basis in October, helped by a 27.9% yearly fall in energy prices.
This followed on from being confirmed at 2.9% on an annual basis last week, down from 4.3% the previous month.
Yet a number of ECB policymakers have been keen to emphasise the need to keep interest rates at relatively elevated levels as inflation remains high.
“It would be unwise to start cutting interest rates too soon,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech on Friday. “We must not loosen policy until we are absolutely certain of returning to price stability on a lasting basis.”
rose 0.3% to 1.2492, near a two-month peak, with Bank of England Governor set to speak later in the session.
plunged to 4.6% on an annual basis in October, from 6.7% in September, the largest fall in the annual CPI rate from one month to the next since April 1992.
However, U.K. inflation remains among the highest in the developed world, and the Bank of England has sought to stress that it is nowhere near cutting interest rates.
Yuan, yen benefit from dollar weakness
In Asia, fell 0.6% to 7.1712, with the yuan climbing to its strongest level against the dollar since early-August.
The People’s Bank of China held its benchmark near record lows on Monday, while also injecting about 80 billion yuan of liquidity into the economy.
Separately, Chinese officials vowed more policy support for the country’s beleaguered property sector – a move that helped shore up confidence over one of China’s biggest industries.
traded 0.8% lower at 148.41, strengthening below the 150 level to the dollar for the first time in nearly three weeks, with traders becoming less fearful of more U.S. rate hikes.
Forex
Japanese yen subdued despite BOJ deputy governor’s rate hike hint
Investing.com– The Japanese yen exhibited minimal movement on Tuesday, despite Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino indicating a potential hike in the upcoming policy meeting.
Himino suggested that the central bank might consider raising rates, citing sustained wage growth and expectations of a clearer U.S. policy landscape following President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural address later this month.
The yen’s pair edged 0.1% higher to 157.62 yen on Tuesday.
In recent months, the BOJ has been adjusting its monetary policy to address rising inflation. In March last year, it ended its negative interest rate policy, and by July, it had increased the short-term policy rate to 0.25%.
These measures aim to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, supported by robust wage growth and a weakening yen, which have contributed to higher import costs.
Despite these developments, the yen’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable, reflecting market skepticism about the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
Analysts suggest that while the BOJ is signaling a shift towards policy normalization, uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions and domestic wage dynamics may lead to a cautious approach.
Barclays (LON:) expects the central bank to implement rate hikes in March and October, with a terminal rate of 0.75%.
The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for January 23-24, where new growth and price projections will be discussed.
Forex
UBS notes hedge funds sell GBP amid UK fiscal worries
Forex
US dollar to stay stronger for longer, UBS says
Investing.com — UBS strategists expect the US dollar “to stay stronger for longer,” citing robust US economic activity and ongoing tariff concerns impacting other regions.
Monday saw the (DXY) soar to its highest level since November 2022, trading above the 110 mark during the session. This represents a roughly 9% appreciation since late September.
The US dollar’s recent strength has been bolstered by better-than-expected domestic data, including nonfarm payrolls and the services sector purchasing managers’ index. These positive indicators have led to a decrease in the anticipated number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the consequent rise in US yields lending broad support to the USD.
While US economic data is expected to remain solid in the near term, the outlook for Europe is less optimistic, with subdued growth prospects.
Although growth in China is forecasted to accelerate to 5% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, the threat of US tariffs poses a significant risk. Political and economic uncertainties in South Korea, the European Union, and the UK have been linked to weakness in their respective currencies.
According to UBS, potential monetary policy divergence is among the key factors that could further propel the dollar upward in the near term.
While the Fed is expected to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in the second and third quarters, the European Central Bank is projected to reduce rates by 100 basis points in the first half of the year.
“Policy divergence is a powerful driver of currencies, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates,” strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote.
The firm also points out that tariff risks may not be fully accounted for in the current USD valuation. Despite the dollar’s recent rally being largely attributed to solid US macroeconomic data, the introduction of new tariffs could drive the dollar even higher.
UBS suggests that if tariffs are implemented, the DXY could trade between 110 and 115, with significant impacts on other major currency pairs.
“If tariffs were to materialize, DXY could trade in a 110-115 range, could drop below parity, could slide below 1.20, and could move toward 0.94, in our view,” strategists noted.
However, the investment bank believes that the story of 2025 could be a tale of two halves, with the dollar strength in the first half of the year potentially reversing in the second half.
The current trading position of the USD, which is considered strongly overvalued and shows the highest level of dollar net length since 2015, supports this view.
UBS’s revised forecasts for the EUR/USD pair reflect this expected trajectory. Strategists expect the pair to trade at 1.00 in March, 1.02 in June, and 1.06 in December 2025.
In the case of China, despite the possibility of dramatically higher effective tariff rates, the CNY has only partially priced in this risk, with UBS reiterating its forecast for the to reach 7.50 by June.
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