Commodities
What OPEC+ oil output cuts are already in place and what could change
© Reuters. OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) -Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC are scheduled to meet online on Thursday and could make further changes to an agreement that already limits supply into 2024, according to analysts and OPEC+ sources, to support the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, delayed the meeting from Nov. 26. OPEC+ sources said this was because of a disagreement over output levels for African producers, although sources have since said the group has moved closer to a compromise on this issue.
OPEC+ negotiations over production quotas have often been difficult in the past, most recently at their June meeting.
WHAT IS AGREED ALREADY?
OPEC+ after long negotiations in June extended oil output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, until the end of 2024.
In addition, Saudi Arabia is making a 1 million-bpd voluntary reduction in output until the end of December 2023. A Russian cut in oil exports of 300,000 bpd also lasts until the end of 2023.
The group aims to produce a combined 40.58 million bpd next year after adjusting baselines and targets for several countries versus levels used this year.
Targets for several African members were reduced for 2024 to bring them in line with declining production levels. The agreement also allows the United Arab Emirates, which has been boosting its production capacity, to increase output in 2024.
Current OPEC+ production levels as of October 2023 stand at 38.19 million bpd and they include the additional voluntary cuts by Saudi and Russia amounting to 1.3 million bpd. It is not clear if those cuts would be extended into 2024.
WHAT MORE COULD THEY DO ON THURSDAY?
An OPEC+ source said he expected there to be an option for a “collective further reduction” on Thursday, without providing details. OPEC+ sources earlier this month said the group was set to consider additional cuts.
OPEC+ could further revise 2024 targets for Nigeria, Angola and Congo after reviews by outside analysts, it said in June. Angola and Congo are pumping below their 2024 targets due to falling capacity, while Nigeria has moved closer to, or surpassed its 2024 target in recent months according to some assessments.
Some analysts, including Energy Aspects, have said they expect Saudi Arabia to extend its 1 million bpd voluntary cut to at least the first quarter of 2024.
The following table shows OPEC+ production and targets in 2023-2024 in million barrels per day:
Country October May-Dec. May-Dec. 2023 2024 Implied 2024
2023 2023 targets with targets target with
output* targets voluntary cuts** voluntary cuts^
Algeria 0.96 1.007 0.959 1.007 0.959
Angola 1.15 1.455 1.455 1.28 1.28
Congo 0.26 0.31 0.31 0.276 0.276
Equatorial 0.06 0.121 0.121 0.07 0.07
Guinea
Gabon 0.22 0.177 0.169 0.177 0.169
Iraq 4.38 4.431 4.22 4.431 4.22
Kuwait 2.57 2.676 2.548 2.676 2.548
Nigeria 1.35 1.742 1.742 1.38 1.38
Saudi 9.01 10.478 9.978 10.478 9.978
Arabia
UAE 3.25 3.019 2.875 3.219 3.075
Azerbaijan 0.49 0.684 0.684 0.551 0.551
Kazakhstan 1.63 1.628 1.55 1.628 1.55
Mexico 1.67 1.753 1.753 1.753 1.753
Oman 0.8 0.841 0.801 0.841 0.801
Russia*** 9.53 10.478 9.5 9.949 9.449
Bahrain*** 0.85 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.196
*
Brunei 0.097 0.097 0.083 0.083
Malaysia 0.567 0.567 0.401 0.401
South 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124
Sudan
Sudan 0.072 0.072 0.064 0.064
Total 23.21 25.416 24.377 24.994 23.955
OPEC-10
Total 14.98 16.44 15.344 15.59 14.972
Non-OPEC
Total 38.19 41.856 39.721 40.584 38.927
OPEC+
* IEA figures
** Excludes Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 million bpd voluntary cut from July 2023 to December 2023.
. *** Russia’s 500,000 bpd voluntary cut is from March 2023 to December 2024 to around 9.5 million bpd, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Russia’s 2024 target is based on a revision announced by OPEC on June 13.
**** Figure is total for Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan
^ Includes extra voluntary cuts when announced
Commodities
Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed
Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.
inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.
The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.
Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook
Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut.
Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.
Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals
The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
The rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.
Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors
Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.
Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.
Commodities
Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories
Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.
At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.
Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.
Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China.
China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices.
China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.
To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.
US crude inventories shrink- API
US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.
A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions
Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.
rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.
Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.
US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high
The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook
Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.
Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.
Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.
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