Stock Markets
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead
© Reuters
Investing.com — Markets are entering the closing weeks of 2023 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the historic tightening of monetary policy is likely over and discussion of rate cuts is coming “into view”. Investors will get a final update on U.S. inflation for this year, while the Bank of Japan may be inching toward a long-awaited policy pivot. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
1. U.S. data
Investors will get their last update on inflation for this year with Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures report, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge.
Economists are expecting the PCE price index to remain for a second month in November, while the core measure that strips out volatile food and energy costs is seen rising .
There will also be data on , and , while updates on the housing sector include reports on both and home sales.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is due to speak on Tuesday.
2. Santa Claus rally?
The notched another record high close on Friday, and the ended little changed, but registered a seventh straight week of gains in its longest weekly winning streak since 2017.
Some optimism among investors dampened after Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said on Friday it was too soon to be talking about rate cuts.
“What I think we got this week is that (Fed Chair Jerome Powell) doesn’t want to overly punish the economy with (rates) being higher for longer for no good reason,” Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners in Pittsburgh told Reuters.
“I don’t know if we’re going to get whatever is considered a Santa Claus rally, but it looks like all things being considered, we could drift higher from here.”
3. BOJ inching towards pivot
Expectations are mounting that the Bank of Japan could end negative interest rates in the coming months, again making it a global outlier as the focus at the Federal Reserve and other major central banks turns to when to begin cutting rates.
A change is unlikely to come at the BOJ’s upcoming policy on Tuesday, but investors will be scrutinizing the bank’s rate statement for any indications that a pivot could come at its next meeting in January.
That expected pivot, plus the Fed’s dovish tilt, has pushed the back to the stronger side of 141 per dollar for the first time since July.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week the central bank was facing an “even more challenging” situation at year-end and at the start of 2024, jolting markets as speculators ramped up bets that a policy shift was imminent.
4. Gold on track for first annual gain since 2020
is on track to notch up its first annual increase since 2020, fuelled by a weaker dollar and growing expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
Lower interest rates increase the appeal of holding zero-yield bullion.
Real U.S. yields have been rising non-stop since early 2022, but only turned positive in June, knocking gold back from a near-record. They are now at their highest in eight years, but this has been no barrier to gold vaulting above $2,000 an ounce. And yet the price is still some 20% below its inflation-adjusted all-time high above $2,500 in 1980.
Investors are banking on a flurry of rate cuts next year, while political and economic uncertainty are on the rise – potentially heralding a sweet spot for gold investors.
5. U.K. data
U.K. inflation is currently running at more than double the Bank of England’s 2% target and the latest on Wednesday is likely to confirm price pressures remain elevated compared to other major economies.
The hit a three-month high against the euro this month after euro zone inflation dropped sharply, fueling speculation the BoE will take longer to cut rates than the European Central Bank.
But high rates could also tip the U.K. economy, which the BoE expects to flat-line in 2024, into recession, meaning sterling strength is not a one-way bet. The pound’s fate rests on whether the BoE keeps reacting to current inflation trends or takes the longer-term view that economic weakness will dampen wages and prices.
–Reuters contributed to this report
Stock Markets
Palantir, Anduril join forces with tech groups to bid for Pentagon contracts, FT reports
(Reuters) – Data analytics firm Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:) and defense tech company Anduril Industries are in talks with about a dozen competitors to form a consortium that will jointly bid for U.S. government work, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
The consortium, which could announce agreements with other tech groups as early as January, is expected to include SpaceX, OpenAI, autonomous shipbuilder Saronic and artificial intelligence data group Scale AI, the newspaper said, citing several people with knowledge of the matter.
“We are working together to provide a new generation of defence contractors,” a person involved in developing the group told the newspaper.
The consortium will bring together the heft of some of Silicon Valley’s most valuable companies and will leverage their products to provide a more efficient way of supplying the U.S. government with cutting-edge defence and weapons capabilities, the newspaper added.
Palantir, Anduril, OpenAI, Scale AI and Saronic did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. SpaceX could not be immediately reached for a comment.
Reuters reported earlier this month that President-elect Donald Trump’s planned U.S. government efficiency drive involving Elon Musk could lead to more joint projects between big defense contractors and smaller tech firms in areas such as artificial intelligence, drones and uncrewed submarines.
Musk, who was named as a co-leader of a government efficiency initiative in the incoming government, has indicated that Pentagon spending and priorities will be a target of the efficiency push, spreading anxiety at defense heavyweights such as Boeing (NYSE:) , Northrop Grumman (NYSE:) , Lockheed Martin (NYSE:) and General Dynamics (NYSE:) .
Musk and many small defense tech firms have been aligned in criticizing legacy defense programs like Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet while calling for mass production of cheaper AI-powered drones, missiles and submarines.
Such views have given major defense contractors more incentive to partner with emerging defense technology players in these areas.
Stock Markets
Weakened Iran could pursue nuclear weapon, White House’s Sullivan says
By Simon Lewis (JO:)
(Reuters) -The Biden administration is concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, adding that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the risk.
Iran has suffered setbacks to its regional influence after Israel’s assaults on its allies, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, followed by the fall of Iran-aligned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Tehran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN.
“It’s no wonder there are voices (in Iran) saying, ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now … Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine’,” Sullivan said.
Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has expanded uranium enrichment since Trump, in his 2017-2021 presidential term, pulled out of a deal between Tehran and world powers that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
Sullivan said that there was a risk that Iran might abandon its promise not to build nuclear weapons.
“It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on,” Sullivan said, adding that he had also consulted with U.S. ally Israel.
Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, could return to his hardline Iran policy by stepping up sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.
Sullivan said Trump would have an opportunity to pursue diplomacy with Tehran, given Iran’s “weakened state.”
“Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term,” he said.
Stock Markets
Ukraine says Russian general deliberately targeted Reuters staff in August missile strike
(Reuters) -Ukraine’s security service has named a Russian general it suspects of ordering a missile strike on a hotel in eastern Ukraine in August and said he acted “with the motive of deliberately killing employees of” Reuters.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said in a statement on Friday that Colonel General Alexei Kim, a deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, approved the strike that killed Reuters safety adviser Ryan Evans and wounded two of the agency’s journalists on Aug. 24.
In a statement posted on Telegram messenger the SBU said it was notifying Kim in absentia that he was an official suspect in its investigation into the strike on the Sapphire Hotel in Kramatorsk, a step in Ukrainian criminal proceedings that can later lead to charges.
In a separate, 15-page notice of suspicion, in which the SBU set out findings from its investigation, the agency said that the decision to fire the missile was made “with the motive of deliberately killing employees of the international news agency Reuters who were engaged in journalistic activities in Ukraine”.
The document, which was published on the website of the General Prosecutor’s Office on Friday, said that Kim had received intelligence that Reuters staff were staying in Kramatorsk. It added that Kim would have been “fully aware that the individuals were civilians and not participating in the armed conflict”.
The Russian defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the SBU’s findings and has not replied to previous questions about the attack. The Kremlin also did not respond to a request for comment. Kim did not reply to messages sent by Reuters to his mobile telephone seeking comment about the SBU’s statement and whether the strike deliberately targeted Reuters staff.
The SBU did not provide evidence to support its claims, nor say why Russia targeted Reuters. In response to questions from the news agency, the security agency declined to provide further details, saying its criminal investigation was still under way and it was therefore not able to disclose such information.
Reuters has not independently confirmed any of the SBU’s claims.
Reuters said on Friday: “We note the news today from the Ukrainian security services regarding the missile attack on August 24, 2024, on the Sapphire Hotel in Kramatorsk, a civilian target more than 20 km from Russian-occupied territory.”
“The strike had devastating consequences, killing our safety adviser, Ryan Evans, and injuring members of our editorial team. We continue to seek more information about the attack. It is critically important for journalists to be able to report freely and safely,” the statement said.
Reuters declined to comment further on the allegation that its staff were deliberately targeted.
The SBU statement said Kim had been named a suspect under two articles of the Ukrainian criminal code: waging an aggressive war and violating the laws and customs of war.
“It was Kim who signed the directive and gave the combat order to fire on the hotel, where only civilians were staying,” it said.
Evans, a 38-year-old former British soldier who had worked as a safety adviser for Reuters since 2022, was killed instantly in the strike.
The SBU statement gave some details about how the strike had occurred, according to its investigation.
“To carry out the attack, the Russian colonel general involved one of his subordinate missile forces units,” the Ukrainian agency said, adding that the strike was carried out with an Iskander-M ballistic missile.
The SBU did not identify the specific unit.
Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey, a videographer for the news agency who was in a room across the corridor, was seriously wounded. Kyiv-based text correspondent Dan Peleschuk was also injured.
The remaining three members of the Reuters team escaped with minor cuts and scratches.
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