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Dollar rebounds as Fed’s Williams talks down rate cuts

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Dollar rebounds as Fed's Williams talks down rate cuts
© Reuters. A currency dealer counts U.S. dollars at his shop in Karachi October 8, 2008. REUTERS/Athar Hussain/Files

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By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar rebounded on Friday after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams pushed back against the market’s rate cut expectations, though the remained on track for its worst weekly performance in a month.

The dollar tumbled broadly after updated interest rate projections of Fed officials released on Wednesday showed an expectation for 75 basis points in cuts in 2024.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was also interpreted as striking a more dovish tone at the conclusion of the U.S. central bank’s two day meeting, when he said that the tightening of monetary policy is likely over, with a discussion of cuts coming “into view.”

But Williams said on Friday that “we aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now” at the Fed and it’s “premature” to speculate about them.

“It strikes some of the similar tones that we heard from Powell earlier this week but it kind of reinforces the fact that the Fed is still very much a data dependent bank and not really endorsing what the market’s pricing in to a degree,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Rai also noted that a large part of the move in the dollar this week has been due to rebalancing positions that were heavily tilted towards the greenback and focused in specific currency pairs, such as against the Japanese yen.

“This is a story about the inordinate amount of leverage and skewed positioning in the market that needed to be rebalanced more than any sort of dovish interpretation of what Powell said earlier this week,” he said.

Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts, with the first reduction seen likely in March and 141 basis points in cuts seen by December.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that the U.S. central bank can begin reducing interest rates “sometime in the third quarter” of 2024 if inflation falls as expected.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said that the Fed may soon need to shift its focus to preventing a run-up in unemployment from fighting inflation.

Data on Friday showed that production at U.S. factories rose in November, lifted by a rebound in motor vehicle output following the end of strikes, but activity was weaker elsewhere as manufacturing grapples with higher borrowing and softening demand for goods.

The dollar index was last up 0.56% on the day at 102.52. It fell to 101.76 on Thursday, the lowest since Aug. 10. The index is on track for a weekly loss of 1.39%, the worst weekly performance since Nov. 19.

The euro fell 0.83% to $1.0899. It reached $1.1009 on Thursday, the highest since Nov. 29. Sterling dropped 0.60% to $1.2690, after reaching $1.2793 on Thursday, the highest since Aug. 22.

The euro and sterling were supported on Thursday by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England pushing back against rate cuts.

Investors are nonetheless still betting heavily on rate cuts from both central banks next year.

The ECB has more scope than most to ease, according to Pepperstone strategist Chris Weston, given low euro zone growth and a rapid decline in inflation.

“However, the pushback from (ECB President) Lagarde and co suggests conjecture on the timing of initial easing – perhaps this is a function that it’s desirable to keep one’s currency strong to limit imported inflation.”

The euro was also dented by surveys on Friday showing that the downturn in euro zone business activity surprisingly deepened in December.

The Bank of Japan is the last of the major central banks to meet this month and the question among traders and investors is whether or not it will signal its intention to ditch its policy of keeping interest rates at rock bottom next week.

The dollar was last up 0.24% at 142.18 yen, after dropping to 140.95 on Thursday, the lowest since July 31. The greenback is on track to post its worst week against the Japanese currency since July 14 with a 1.94% fall.

fell 2.1% to $42,130.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (2000 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 102.5200 101.9700 +0.56% -0.937% +102.6400 +101.8300

Euro/Dollar $1.0899 $1.0992 -0.83% +1.73% +$1.1004 +$1.0885

Dollar/Yen 142.1750 141.8450 +0.24% +8.44% +142.4600 +141.4500

Euro/Yen 154.97 155.98 -0.65% +10.46% +156.4900 +154.4200

Dollar/Swiss 0.8700 0.8677 +0.28% -5.90% +0.8707 +0.8654

Sterling/Dollar $1.2690 $1.2767 -0.60% +4.93% +$1.2790 +$1.2669

Dollar/Canadian 1.3371 1.3407 -0.27% -1.32% +1.3415 +1.3350

Aussie/Dollar $0.6706 $0.6698 +0.12% -1.62% +$0.6728 +$0.6664

Euro/Swiss 0.9481 0.9535 -0.57% -4.18% +0.9541 +0.9456

Euro/Sterling 0.8587 0.8610 -0.27% -2.91% +0.8617 +0.8572

NZ $0.6209 $0.6207 +0.03% -2.21% +$0.6229 +$0.6180

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.4570 10.5020 -0.31% +6.67% +10.5610 +10.4340

Euro/Norway 11.4013 11.5451 -1.25% +8.65% +11.5634 +11.3840

Dollar/Sweden 10.2654 10.2330 -0.56% -1.37% +10.3235 +10.2057

Euro/Sweden 11.1897 11.2527 -0.56% +0.36% +11.2789 +11.1810

Forex

British pound slides amidst rising gilt yields and fiscal concerns

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Investing.com — The British pound continued its recent decline against the dollar and the euro on Monday, driven by rising investor worries about the fiscal sustainability of Britain as gilt yields increased for the sixth consecutive day.

Sterling depreciated as much as 0.7% against the dollar, reaching $1.2103, its lowest since November 2023. It later settled with a 0.6% drop at $1.2125. In comparison to the euro, the pound was down 0.2% at 84.10 pence.

The pound has become a focus of global currency traders due to the impact of soaring global bond yields, primarily originating from the United States, on British markets. These rising yields stem from concerns about increasing inflation and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Strong U.S. labor market data released on Friday added fuel to the global bond yields, leading money markets to stop fully pricing in any rate cut from the Fed this year. Although higher yields often bolster the currency, analysts in Britain anticipate that the government may need to cut spending or increase taxes to adhere to its fiscal rules, which could potentially affect future growth.

On Monday, Britain’s 10-year gilt yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.879%, slightly below last week’s 2008 high of 4.925%. It had increased by over 24 basis points last week, marking its largest weekly rise in a year. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship. The 30-year yield in Britain reached its highest level in 27 years on Monday, hitting 5.472%.

This week, attention is also likely to center on British inflation data set to be released on Wednesday, which could influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy in the near term. Consumer prices are projected to have increased by 2.6% annually in December, matching November’s rate, while core CPI is expected to have eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Futures markets are currently pricing in around 16 basis points of easing at the BoE’s February meeting, which suggests approximately a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate cut.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Forex

China boosts support for yuan, increases overseas borrowing limits

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Investing.com — In a bid to bolster its weakening currency, China has unveiled plans to store more dollars in Hong Kong and improve capital flows. The measures, announced on Monday, include allowing companies to increase their overseas borrowing.

The yuan has been struggling, hovering near 16-month lows amid a dominant dollar, falling Chinese bond yields, and the looming threat of higher trade barriers as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency begins next week.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been taking steps to halt the yuan’s decline since late last year, including issuing warnings against speculative moves and taking measures to support yields. On Monday, authorities reiterated their warnings against speculating against the yuan and increased the limits for offshore borrowings by companies, a move aimed at allowing more foreign exchange to flow into the country.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng addressed the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong, stating that the central bank plans to considerably increase the proportion of China’s foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong. However, he did not provide further details. China’s foreign reserves were around $3.2 trillion at the end of December, but little is known about where these reserves are invested.

The currency has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the U.S. election in early November, due to concerns that Trump’s proposed new trade tariffs could put additional pressure on the struggling Chinese economy.

The PBOC has been setting its official midpoint guidance on the stronger side of market projections since mid-November, which analysts interpret as a sign of concern over the yuan’s decline.

The central bank also announced other measures in recent days, including suspending treasury bond purchases and planning to issue large amounts of bills in Hong Kong. These steps aim to prevent yields from falling too much and to control the circulation of yuan offshore.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Forex

Rising dollar pressures peers as further Fed rate cuts questioned

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By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee

LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar rose on Monday, driving its peers to multi-year lows, after Friday’s blowout U.S. jobs report underscored the strength of the economy and muddied the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of currencies, surged to its highest in more than two years on Monday to peak at 110.17, extending the recent rally.

Friday’s data showed U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Markets were now no longer fully pricing in even one rate cut from the Fed in 2025, down from roughly two quarter-point cuts priced at the start of the year.

With Wednesday’s reading on U.S. inflation up next, any upside surprise could further close the door on future easing. A slew of Fed officials are also due to speak this week.

“If you look back at the last year there were worries and signs that there were cracks in the labour market emerging, but they seem to have been fully plastered, not just papered over,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.

“The U.S. economy is resilient enough to justify a strong dollar and justify relatively higher rates.”

Adding to expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle is the view that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions could stoke inflation. He returns to the White House in a week.

The euro hit its weakest level against the dollar since November 2022 at $1.0177, while sterling was one of the biggest losers, sliding as much as 0.7% to a 14-month low of $1.21.

The pound has been under pressure from concerns over rising borrowing costs and growing unease over Britain’s finances. It tumbled 1.8% last week.

“The overriding view remains that the UK government will probably be forced to announce spending cuts on 26 March,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

“This will feed into a tighter fiscal/looser monetary/weaker sterling narrative.”

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar sank to its weakest since April 2020 at $0.6131. The New Zealand dollar last traded at $0.5544, languishing near a more than two-year low.

BEIJING STEPS IN

The yuan meanwhile bucked the global trend and rose slightly on Monday after Beijing stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing and sending verbal warnings.

The rose 0.1% to 7.3576 per dollar.

Monday’s moves by the People’s Bank of China follow its suspension on Friday of treasury bond purchases, which briefly lifted yields and spurred speculation it is stepping up defence of the yuan.

“The PBOC is doing whatever it takes to maintain RMB stability,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money exchange vendor holds U.S. dollar banknotes at his shop in Beirut, Lebanon December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

The Chinese currency has come under renewed pressure in part due to investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus from Beijing to shore up its struggling economy.

Elsewhere, the yen similarly rose 0.2% to 157.37. The yen’s decline was mitigated by news that Bank of Japan policymakers could raise their inflation forecast at a policy meeting this month as a prelude to hiking rates again.

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