Ethereum’s price metrics are flashing signals that suggest that the long-awaited altcoin season (altseason) may be around the corner.

According to a report by the market analytics platform CryptoQuant, the relative price of ether (ETH) compared to bitcoin (BTC) may have seen the bottom for this cycle. Previously, such low levels have been followed by periods where ETH significantly outperformed BTC, triggering a broader altcoin rally.

ETH Recovers From Undervalued Zone

In the last seven days, the ETH/BTC price ratio has surged 38% from its lowest level since January 2020. The current price ratio has been historically associated with ETH price bottoms, which have preceded altseasons. Still, the metric needs to rally above its 365-day moving average before ETH can record a new and sustainable leg against BTC.

To substantiate the possibility of a strong mean-reversion potential, CryptoQuant pointed out that ETH recently dipped into an extreme undervalued zone relative to BTC. This was evident in the ETH/BTC Market Value to Realized Value ratio, which plunged to its lowest level for the first time since 2019.

Similar cases of an MVRV ratio dip recorded in 2017, 2018, and 2019 were followed by periods where ETH outperformed BTC.

ETH Sees Bullish Signals

Recently, ether’s price has been on a positive trajectory, and this performance has coincided with higher spot trading volume relative to BTC. The ratio of ether’s spot trading volume relative to BTC rose last week to 0.89, a level not seen since August 2024. This signalled that market participants increased their exposure to ETH compared to Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant mentioned that traders’ increased exposure to ETH compared to BTC has also happened from 2019 to 2021, during which ETH outperformed BTC by 4x. Ether’s spot trading volume has also begun to grow faster than bitcoin’s, indicating higher demand for the second-largest crypto asset.

Furthermore, investors also favor ETH through their allocations to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Higher ETH purchases have triggered a spike in the ETF holdings ratio since late April.

“The growing ETH allocation likely reflects expectations of relative outperformance, possibly driven by catalysts such as recent scaling upgrades or a more favorable macro environment,” CryptoQuant explained.

Additionally, ETH is seeing lower sell pressure relative to BTC, as seen in exchange inflow data. The exchange inflow ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2020, indicating that ETH is facing significantly lower selling pressure than BTC. This has always been a bullish signal for ETH, supporting further gains for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady at around $103,000, but the calm could be the eye of the storm.

With volatility compressing and the CME gap still looming like a ghost at $91,970, crypto analysts are torn on whether BTC is headed for glory at $175,000 or prepping for a brutal fakeout.

The Bull Case: $175K or Bust?

Egrag Crypto isn’t mincing words. In a recent X post, the analyst, more well-known for his takes on XRP, proclaimed that Bitcoin going to $175,000 was “Solid as a Rock!” According to him, that price region is BTC’s “cycle top,” referencing historical EMA breakouts and a 10X extension from 2017’s $20,000 peak.

The crypto trader pointed out that, in the past, Bitcoin pumped hard whenever it closed above the 21-week EMA. His breakdown: Pump 1, 60%; pump 2, 170%; pump 3, 75%. That’s an average jump of 101%, which Egrag applied directly to the market’s post-April 21 momentum to reach the $175,000 price level. “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t,” he quipped.

However, not everyone is dancing. Investor Daan Crypto Trades is painting a sobering picture of weekend stagnation and low volatility, with BTC locked in a tight $101,000 to $105,000 range. “We won’t see that much action from Bitcoin for now,” he shrugged, citing low liquidity over the weekend and a possible breakout looming.

The Bearish Wrinkles

Still, an unfilled CME gap between $91,970 and $92,520 feels like the real twist. Some traders believe BTC must revisit this zone before any meaningful climb can happen.

“From the current price, BTC would need to drop around 12% to close this gap,” Egrag Crypto wrote. However, he predicted there was more likelihood of a rally through the $130,000 to $140,000 Fibonacci levels before a 33% correction, followed by a final push to his fabled $175,000.

At the time of this writing, BTC was still 4.9% below its all-time high set in January. Its latest price represents a slight 0.4% dip in the last seven days, but it has still outperformed the broader crypto market’s 1.6% drop in the same period.

The next move is critical: will the flagship crypto blast off to $175,000 as the permabulls promise, or will the CME gap drag it down first?

The on-chain intelligence platform CryptoQuant has unveiled a framework for monitoring the revenues of leading public Bitcoin mining companies. This methodology tells whether the companies are undervalued or overvalued in real time.

CryptoQuant revealed in its latest weekly report that the framework tracks miners’ addresses on the Bitcoin blockchain and their BTC production. This enables analysts to derive revenue metrics not disclosed via traditional corporate procedures.

The Valuation Methodology

The Bitcoin mining companies monitored through CryptoQuant’s framework include Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Blockchain (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ). The analytics firm also tracked the revenue metrics of Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), CleanSpark (CLSK), Bitfarms (BITF), TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Cipher Mining (CIPHER), and IREN (IREN), formerly Iris Energy.

According to the report, CryptoQuant analysts estimated daily mining revenues directly from block rewards and transaction fees by tracking miner addresses. The revenue estimates are annualized and compared to the mining firms’ market cap. From there, the analysts offer a forward-looking valuation framework similar to a price-to-sales ratio. CryptoQuant calls this the Market Cap to Annualized Daily Revenues (MCAR) ratio.

The MCAR ratio tells whether a miner’s underlying Bitcoin production or USD-denominated revenue supports the company’s valuation.

“By comparing each company’s market capitalization to its annualized revenue on a daily basis, investors can identify which firms are potentially overvalued or undervalued. This enables more informed portfolio allocation—favoring companies whose market valuations lag behind their revenue generation while reducing exposure to those trading at excessive premiums,” CryptoQuant stated.

WULF and MARA Valued at Relative Premiums

From CryptoQuant’s analysis, the MCAR ratios for WULF, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, HIVE, and IREN are 5.1, 4.4, 3.7, 3.3, 1.9, and 1.8, respectively. These numbers reflect how much investors pay for every dollar of estimated annual revenue in real time.

WULF and MARA have the highest valuation multiples, so CryptoQuant believes they are priced at a significant premium compared to the other firms. RIOT, CLSK, and HIVE are not as overvalued, so their market valuations hover within the same range as their revenue generation.

CryptoQuant found that IREN has the lowest valuation despite posting strong growth in its BTC production. This suggests that the company is likely undervalued by the market. On the brighter side, the firm faces a potential upside if it becomes repriced in the market.

“The current valuation dispersion opens opportunities for relative value strategies by identifying firms like IREN that may be lagging in market recognition despite solid operational performance,” the analytics firm added.