Forex
Dollar index slips to 1-week low; traders eye Friday’s U.S. inflation report
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar hit a one-week low against a basket of major currencies on Thursday as U.S. equities rebounded from the prior day’s sell-off and investors braced for Friday’s U.S. inflation data for clues to the path of future Federal Reserve policy.
Data earlier Thursday showed gross domestic product increased at a 4.9% annualized rate last quarter, revised down from the previously reported 5.2%. The consumer spending element of third-quarter GDP was revised downward to 3.1% from 3.6% in the previous estimate.
“The GDP number wasn’t very helpful,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. “We had a little bit less growth than we thought.”
“But there is nothing (in the day’s action) that says the market is having second thoughts about how aggressive it’s anticipating rate cuts in the year ahead,” he said. “The dollar has been generally soft … so I think we’re just churning for the most part.”
The U.S. currency rose on Wednesday in a safe-haven bid after U.S. stocks’ abrupt afternoon sell-off.
The Fed held interest rates steady last week and policymakers signaled in new economic projections that the historic monetary policy tightening engineered over the last two years is at an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024.
A separate report on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose just marginally last week, suggesting underlying strength in the economy as the year winds down.
Investor now await Friday’s reading on U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index. A November rise of 0.1% would slow the six-month annualized pace of inflation to just 2.1%, almost at the Fed’s 2% target.
Some investors expect slower inflation will prompt the Fed to ease policy to stop real rates from rising, and are wagering on early and aggressive action.
The dollar fell 0.93% against the Japanese yen. Japan’s government on Thursday slightly raised its economic growth projections for this fiscal year from its previous estimates.
The yen is down roughly 8% against the dollar for the year as the Bank of Japan has steadfastly kept short-term rates negative, against 300 basis points of U.S. interest rate hikes.
Sterling was up 0.4% at $1.2689 against the dollar on Thursday, a day after suffering its sharpest drop in two months on news that British inflation dived below forecasts to an annual 3.9% in October, a two-year low. Traders priced in Bank of England rate cuts as soon as May.
The , which tracks the U.S. currency against six peers, was last down 0.596% at 101.8. It hit its lowest level in a week.
Some analysts said month-end rebalancing in thin trade could weigh on the dollar in the near term.
“U.S. equity market outperformance through December rather suggests that passive hedge rebalancing flows will run against the USD through month end,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.
The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars traded higher on the day. The was last up 1.04% at $0.68005, after touching $0.68035. The traded up 0.74% at $0.6294.
was 0.29% higher at $43,791.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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