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Worrying Pattern Signals Potential Dump in ETH: What to Expect? (Ethereum Price Analysis)

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Ethereum’s recent surge in momentum encountered a significant obstacle upon reaching a pivotal resistance area, encompassing the upper boundary of a multi-month wedge and the static resistance at $2.4K.

Despite this, the emergence of a head and shoulders pattern suggests an impending retracement towards the $2K support zone.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Ethereum witnessed a robust uptrend, achieving an annual peak of $2.4K, underscoring the prevailing influence of buyers in the market. This upward trajectory is further emphasized by a golden cross on the daily chart, signaling an overall bullish sentiment for Ethereum.

However, the ascent was impeded upon encountering a critical resistance zone formed by the upper boundary of the multi-month wedge coinciding with the crucial static support at $2.4K. The resultant heightened selling pressure put a halt to the existing bullish momentum.

Despite these challenges, a potential head and shoulders pattern, a widely recognized bearish reversal formation, has taken shape. The price is teetering on the brink of breaking below the pattern’s neckline, represented by the orange line. Additionally, an extended bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator suggests the potential for downward movement in the coming days.

Considering recent price developments, a breach below the neckline of the pattern could pave the way for a short-term downward movement. The anticipated retracement would likely lead the price back toward the substantial support range at $2K.

eth_price_chart_2612231
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

A closer inspection of the 4-hour chart reveals that amid recent sideways movement, the price found robust support within the critical range between the 0.5 ($2,211) and 0.618 ($2,166) levels of the Fibonacci retracement indicator. It acted as a barrier, preventing further downward attempts.

Notably, this essential support range aligns with a dynamic, supportive trendline, adding additional strength against Ethereum sellers. Nevertheless, a scenario in which sellers gain control and push the price below these crucial support levels could trigger a notable cascade, prompting a retracement towards the $2K support region.

eth_price_chart_2612232
Source: TradingView

By Shayan

In the realm of on-chain data analysis, delving into the sentiment reflected in the futures market provides valuable insights into Ethereum’s overall outlook. The accompanying chart depicts Ethereum’s open interest metric. Traditionally, heightened values signify increased volatility and the potential for market reversals, whereas lower values indicate a more sustainable trend.

The chart underscores that bullish market movements often coincide with a gradual uptick in the Open Interest metric. However, reaching elevated levels or experiencing steep surges could signal the potential for a significant market reversal, often attributed to long/short squeeze events.

The open interest has been trending upward, albeit not yet reaching the values witnessed during the market’s significant highs. Consequently, while corrections remain a plausible scenario, the futures market is yet to reach a point of overheating. The ongoing bullish trend is likely to endure in the long term, given the moderate levels of open interest. It becomes imperative to closely monitor this metric to discern any potential shifts in market sentiment.

eth_open_interest_chart_2612231
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin, Ethereum ETF Recap: What Was US Investors’ Strategy During Fed’s Rate-Cut Week?

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It was a big week for financial markets and the global economy as the central bank of the world’s strongest economy pivoted from its monetary policy and reduced the key interest rates by 0.5%.

As such, it’s worth reviewing how local investors behaved when it comes down to their interactions with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

BTC ETFs on the Inflow Side

CryptoPotato reported on Wednesday that US investors were on a shopping spree for the spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the four trading days leading to the FOMC meeting, the net inflows to the 11 financial vehicles were just over $500 million.

Their behavior changed on the day of the rate cuts as the numbers turned red, with $52.7 million in net outflows. However, they reversed their strategy once again on Thursday and Friday, with $158.3 million and $92 million in net inflows, respectively.

On a weekly scale, this means that there were more withdrawals only on Wednesday. Overall, the total net inflows for the week stood at $397.2 million.

What’s particularly interesting about the past few weeks is the lack of actual interest in the largest Bitcoin ETF – BlackRock’s IBIT. It has seen only one day of positive flows since August 26, which occurred on September 15. There have been two days of net outflows within the same timeframe, while all other trading days saw no reportable action, according to FarSide.

In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC has attracted impressive amounts on September 17 ($56.6 million), September 19 ($49.9 million), and September 20 (26.1 million). Ark Invest’s ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB have also seen impressive flows in the past few weeks.

Ethereum ETFs See Positive Streak

The spot Ethereum ETFs have failed to attract investors’ attention in the two months they have traded on US exchanges. However, there have been some minor positive signs in the past couple of days.

FarSide shows two consecutive days of net inflows – $5.2 million on Thursday and $2.9 million on Friday. Nevertheless, these numbers are still quite insignificant and the overall weekly figure is in the red.

The net outflows stood at $9.4 million on Monday, $15.1 million on Tuesday, and $9.8 million on Wednesday. As such, the Fed’s rate-cut week ended with $26.2 million in net outflows for the Ethereum ETFs.

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Gold Hit New ATH on Friday, Bitcoin Did Not: Which Has Performed Better in 2024?

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The precious metal has had a highly impressive year, having surged by about 27% and tapping a new all-time high just on Friday.

However, does this impressive YTD increase mean that it has done better than bitcoin, which is far from its ATH?

Gold Dominates 2024

Perhaps driven by the overall macroeconomic situation, with a few wars breaking out, uncertainty about numerous election cycles, purchases from emerging market central banks, or other reasons, the yellow metal has been at the forefront of price rallies in 2024. It entered the year at $2,065/oz, but it quickly started appreciating against the greenback.

The culmination came yesterday when it skyrocketed to $2,622 to tap a new all-time high, which meant that it had gained 27% of value since January 1. Its price movements against other currencies like the euro or the British pound are quite similar.

XAUUSD Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView
XAUUSD Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView

But that’s not all. Experts believe its climb is far from over. Goldman Sachs’ recent research reads that gold could go further, to about $2,700 in the next few months, especially if the US imposes new financial sanctions against other countries following the elections. The US debt burden is another factor that could boost its price.

Gold is our strategists’ preferred near-term long (the commodity they most expect to go up in the short term), and it’s also their preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.” – reads Goldman’s memo.

Citing several other experts, CBS reported that gold is poised to have a bullish October due to the recent interest rate cut by the US Fed.

What About Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has a controversial stand in global economics. Believers see it as the natural replacement of gold, since it has many of its merits but operates in the digital world. Critics claim that it’s too volatile and its short history puts it more toward the side of riskier assets rather than gold, which has existed since the dinosaurs. Or maybe it’s something in the middle.

Nevertheless, BTC has also been on a bull run this year. It traded at approximately $42,200 on January 1 and shot up to a new all-time high less than three months later of nearly $74,000.

Although it lost a lot of ground in the following months, even dipping below $50,000 on a few occasions, it now trades at $63,000. This means that even though it’s more than ten grand away from its ATH in March, its 2024 rally has posted gains of roughly 50% – or nearly double those of gold. So, despite the yellow metal’s highly impressive year, perhaps its best yet, BTC has still performed better, for now at least.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView
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BTC Price Retraces to $63K, WIF Dumps by 10% Daily (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price run after the Fed’s rate cut was halted at $64,000 and the asset was pushed down by around a grand.

The altcoins are also in the red on a daily scale, with the biggest corrections coming from the likes of TON, AVAX, and NEAR from the larger caps.

BTC Down to $63K

Bitcoin started the business week with a correction that drove it from over $60,000 to under $58,000 on Monday. It was expected to be a highly volatile week for the asset as the US Federal Reserve had a meeting on Wednesday to discuss a reduction in the key interest rates.

In the hours ahead of the event, BTC skyrocketed to over $61,000 but went on a rollercoaster once the US central bank indeed cut the rates by 0.5% on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the bulls prevailed and initiated another massive leg-up that drove the cryptocurrency to just over $64,000 yesterday, which became its highest price tag in over three weeks.

However, the asset failed to maintain its run and has declined by a grand since then, currently trading around $63,000. Additionally, there are other signs that the run could be over for now, and BTC could drop even further.

Its market capitalization has retraced to just under $1.250 trillion, and its dominance over the alts, which shot up to 55% at one point, is now down to 54.3% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 21.09.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 21.09.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts in Retracement Mode

The alternative coins registered impressive gains since Wednesday as well but have calmed on a daily scale. ETH, XRP, BNB, TRX, and SHIB have seen price movements of less than 1%. Others, such as SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, and BCH, have declined by 1-2%.

More notable price drops have come from the likes of Toncoin, Avalance, and NEAR Protocol. TON has tanked by 5% and now sits at $5.5, AVAX is down by 4% to $27, and NEAR (-4%) sits at $4.3.

WIF is the biggest loser from the top 100 alts, having dumped by almost 10%. NOT, BRETT, POPCAT, and AR follow suit.

The total crypto market cap has shed about $40 billion since yesterday and is below $2.3 trillion now.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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