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2023 Aftermath: By How Much Did Bitcoin Outperform S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and Gold?

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It was another challenging year as one war continued without an evident conclusion (Russia-Ukraine), and another one broke out in the Middle East. Numerous countries are trying to fight off the increasing inflation, some with bigger success than others.

With just hours left of 2023, it’s interesting to compare the performance of the world’s largest stock market indexes, gold, which typically performs better during uncertain times, and Bitcoin – an asset that has been proclaimed dead numerous times in the past but still keeps coming back.

How Did Traditional Assets Perform in 2023

Starting with perhaps the most well-known US stock market index – the Standard and Poor’s 500. It tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the US and is typically regarded as the benchmark that shows the health of the country’s financial state, at least in terms of large corporations.

It began the year at just over 3,820 points and quickly soared to 4,200 before returning to its starting position by March. The bulls stepped up on the gas in the following months, and the index jumped to 4,600 at the end of July. After another retracement, the S&P 500 finished the year strong and ended the last trading day of 2023 on December 29 at 4,769 – close to its all-time high.

In terms of percentages, the S&P 500 finished 2023 with a notable increase of roughly 25%. Although that seems quite impressive, one can easily see that most of the gains came from a few tech-related companies, such as Nvidia (245%).

Taking into consideration the aforementioned tech stocks, it’s logical that the Nasdaq Composite, which tracks mainly such assets, has soared the most from the indexes. In fact, the Nasdaq has outperformed almost all of its competitors with a 44.5% yearly surge that drove it from 10,386 at the start of 2023 to 15,011 at the end of it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, averts from tech-related stocks. The index that follows just 30 large US behemoths has increased by 13.74% in 2023 – from 33,136 to 37,689.

Wall_Street

What About Gold?

The yellow metal is regarded as the most prominent safe haven asset that tends to outperform the more riskier stocks during turbulent times. The past few years indeed fall into such a category, which has affected gold’s performance and resulted in untypical volatility.

One ounce of gold cost $1,813 on the financial markets at the start of 2023. Similar to most assets, the bullion had a strong spring and soared past $2,000 in April and May. The trend reversed after the summer, and the precious metal found itself dumping hard to its 2023 starting price at the beginning of October.

After the Hamas-Israel war broke out, though, gold went on a tear. Its price against the dollar exploded by over $300 in less than two months and marked an all-time high of $2,150/oz on December 5.

Since then, the precious metal has lost some traction but still ended 2023 above $2,060, charting a yearly increase of 13.73%.

XAUUSD Yearly (2023). Source: TradingView
XAUUSD Yearly (2023). Source: TradingView

And Then, There’s Bitcoin

Bitcoin, alongside the rest of the crypto market, had a catastrophic 2022 due to industry collapses and adverse global events. As such, it entered 2023 at around $16,600. It didn’t take long before the asset broke out of its late-2022 nosedive. By January 13, it had soared past $20,000 and hadn’t looked back since, despite a few retracements along the way.

Then came reclaiming the $30,000 level, which was harder than anticipated. In fact, it took BTC several attempts to decisively overcome that level, which finally happened in late October.

Bitcoin kept climbing in the following weeks, which culminated in a price surge to nearly $45,000 in early December. It has lost some ground since then, and even though there’re still some hours left in 2023, it’s safe to assume that BTC will finish the year in a range between $42,000 and $43,000 unless something cataclysmic happens.

As such, Bitcoin’s YTD gains will be somewhere between 150% and 160%. This means that the cryptocurrency will trump all other large traditional finance assets mentioned above by a massive margin.

2024 has all the ingredients to be an even better year for Bitcoin, given the upcoming halving (usually serving as a catalyst for a bull market) and the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF in the States. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that such an approval could serve as a sell-the-news moment, and history is no indication of future price performances.

BTCUSD 2023 Chart. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD 2023 Chart. Source: TradingView
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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin, Ethereum ETF Recap: What Was US Investors’ Strategy During Fed’s Rate-Cut Week?

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It was a big week for financial markets and the global economy as the central bank of the world’s strongest economy pivoted from its monetary policy and reduced the key interest rates by 0.5%.

As such, it’s worth reviewing how local investors behaved when it comes down to their interactions with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

BTC ETFs on the Inflow Side

CryptoPotato reported on Wednesday that US investors were on a shopping spree for the spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the four trading days leading to the FOMC meeting, the net inflows to the 11 financial vehicles were just over $500 million.

Their behavior changed on the day of the rate cuts as the numbers turned red, with $52.7 million in net outflows. However, they reversed their strategy once again on Thursday and Friday, with $158.3 million and $92 million in net inflows, respectively.

On a weekly scale, this means that there were more withdrawals only on Wednesday. Overall, the total net inflows for the week stood at $397.2 million.

What’s particularly interesting about the past few weeks is the lack of actual interest in the largest Bitcoin ETF – BlackRock’s IBIT. It has seen only one day of positive flows since August 26, which occurred on September 15. There have been two days of net outflows within the same timeframe, while all other trading days saw no reportable action, according to FarSide.

In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC has attracted impressive amounts on September 17 ($56.6 million), September 19 ($49.9 million), and September 20 (26.1 million). Ark Invest’s ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB have also seen impressive flows in the past few weeks.

Ethereum ETFs See Positive Streak

The spot Ethereum ETFs have failed to attract investors’ attention in the two months they have traded on US exchanges. However, there have been some minor positive signs in the past couple of days.

FarSide shows two consecutive days of net inflows – $5.2 million on Thursday and $2.9 million on Friday. Nevertheless, these numbers are still quite insignificant and the overall weekly figure is in the red.

The net outflows stood at $9.4 million on Monday, $15.1 million on Tuesday, and $9.8 million on Wednesday. As such, the Fed’s rate-cut week ended with $26.2 million in net outflows for the Ethereum ETFs.

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Gold Hit New ATH on Friday, Bitcoin Did Not: Which Has Performed Better in 2024?

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The precious metal has had a highly impressive year, having surged by about 27% and tapping a new all-time high just on Friday.

However, does this impressive YTD increase mean that it has done better than bitcoin, which is far from its ATH?

Gold Dominates 2024

Perhaps driven by the overall macroeconomic situation, with a few wars breaking out, uncertainty about numerous election cycles, purchases from emerging market central banks, or other reasons, the yellow metal has been at the forefront of price rallies in 2024. It entered the year at $2,065/oz, but it quickly started appreciating against the greenback.

The culmination came yesterday when it skyrocketed to $2,622 to tap a new all-time high, which meant that it had gained 27% of value since January 1. Its price movements against other currencies like the euro or the British pound are quite similar.

XAUUSD Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView
XAUUSD Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView

But that’s not all. Experts believe its climb is far from over. Goldman Sachs’ recent research reads that gold could go further, to about $2,700 in the next few months, especially if the US imposes new financial sanctions against other countries following the elections. The US debt burden is another factor that could boost its price.

Gold is our strategists’ preferred near-term long (the commodity they most expect to go up in the short term), and it’s also their preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.” – reads Goldman’s memo.

Citing several other experts, CBS reported that gold is poised to have a bullish October due to the recent interest rate cut by the US Fed.

What About Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has a controversial stand in global economics. Believers see it as the natural replacement of gold, since it has many of its merits but operates in the digital world. Critics claim that it’s too volatile and its short history puts it more toward the side of riskier assets rather than gold, which has existed since the dinosaurs. Or maybe it’s something in the middle.

Nevertheless, BTC has also been on a bull run this year. It traded at approximately $42,200 on January 1 and shot up to a new all-time high less than three months later of nearly $74,000.

Although it lost a lot of ground in the following months, even dipping below $50,000 on a few occasions, it now trades at $63,000. This means that even though it’s more than ten grand away from its ATH in March, its 2024 rally has posted gains of roughly 50% – or nearly double those of gold. So, despite the yellow metal’s highly impressive year, perhaps its best yet, BTC has still performed better, for now at least.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart Year-to-Date. Source: TradingView
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BTC Price Retraces to $63K, WIF Dumps by 10% Daily (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price run after the Fed’s rate cut was halted at $64,000 and the asset was pushed down by around a grand.

The altcoins are also in the red on a daily scale, with the biggest corrections coming from the likes of TON, AVAX, and NEAR from the larger caps.

BTC Down to $63K

Bitcoin started the business week with a correction that drove it from over $60,000 to under $58,000 on Monday. It was expected to be a highly volatile week for the asset as the US Federal Reserve had a meeting on Wednesday to discuss a reduction in the key interest rates.

In the hours ahead of the event, BTC skyrocketed to over $61,000 but went on a rollercoaster once the US central bank indeed cut the rates by 0.5% on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the bulls prevailed and initiated another massive leg-up that drove the cryptocurrency to just over $64,000 yesterday, which became its highest price tag in over three weeks.

However, the asset failed to maintain its run and has declined by a grand since then, currently trading around $63,000. Additionally, there are other signs that the run could be over for now, and BTC could drop even further.

Its market capitalization has retraced to just under $1.250 trillion, and its dominance over the alts, which shot up to 55% at one point, is now down to 54.3% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 21.09.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 21.09.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts in Retracement Mode

The alternative coins registered impressive gains since Wednesday as well but have calmed on a daily scale. ETH, XRP, BNB, TRX, and SHIB have seen price movements of less than 1%. Others, such as SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, and BCH, have declined by 1-2%.

More notable price drops have come from the likes of Toncoin, Avalance, and NEAR Protocol. TON has tanked by 5% and now sits at $5.5, AVAX is down by 4% to $27, and NEAR (-4%) sits at $4.3.

WIF is the biggest loser from the top 100 alts, having dumped by almost 10%. NOT, BRETT, POPCAT, and AR follow suit.

The total crypto market cap has shed about $40 billion since yesterday and is below $2.3 trillion now.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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