Commodities
Oil prices settle lower to start 2024 as supply concerns ease
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. Picture taken November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
By Georgina McCartney
HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices closed the first trading session of 2024 lower as expectations for interest rate cuts waned and on easing concerns that tensions in the Red Sea will disrupt supplies.
settled at $75.89, down by $1.15 or 1.5%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $70.38 a barrel, down by $1.27 or 1.8%.
Prices fell as investors tempered expectations about interest-rate cuts in 2024. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and oil demand.
The dollar also strengthened on Tuesday, while stock prices slipped, further pressuring oil lower. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
Oil prices had climbed around $2 in earlier trading following attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels over the weekend, and the reported arrival of an Iranian warship on Monday.
“The market is correcting itself in so far as there have been no supply disruptions and they think it is unlikely that the Iranian warship will engage with American warships,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
“Clearly, the oil market will move higher if shots are fired,” Lipow added.
On Sunday, U.S. helicopters repelled an attack by Iran-backed Houthi forces on a container vessel operated by Danish shipper Maersk in the Red Sea. On Monday, an Iranian warship had entered the Red Sea, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
Denmark’s Maersk and German rival Hapag-Lloyd said their container ships would keep avoiding the Red Sea route that gives access to the Suez Canal.
A wider conflict could close crucial waterways for oil transportation.
A Reuters survey of economists and analysts predicted Brent crude would average $82.56 a barrel this year, up slightly from the 2023 average of $82.17, with weak global growth expected to cap demand. Geopolitical tensions, however, could support prices.
In China, investor expectations of economic stimulus measures rose after manufacturing activity shrank in December for a third month, government data showed on Sunday.
Any such stimulus could boost oil demand and support crude prices.
Separately, OPEC+ plans to hold a meeting of its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in early February, though an exact date has not been decided, three sources from the alliance said.
Commodities
Citi raises average 2025 oil price forecasts, citing geopolitical risks
(Reuters) – Citi on Wednesday raised its oil price outlook for 2025 due to geopolitical risks centred on Russia and Iran, but noted prices were likely to ease through the second half of the year.
“The oil outlook could see heightened, sustained geopolitical risks in Iran/Russia-Ukraine potentially wipe out the 2025 oil balance surplus, but the Trump administration appears intent on dealmaking,” the bank said in a note.
Citi expects to average $67 a barrel in 2025, up from a previous forecast of $62. It also said it was lifting its average WTI crude forecast to $63/bbl, without giving its former view.
It added that it was revising up its quarterly Brent forecasts to $75/bbl in the first quarter, $68/bbl in the second, $63/bbl in the third, and $60/bbl in the fourth, also without specifying its previous expectations.
The Biden administration on Jan. 10 sanctioned more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers, leading to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a global rush for ship supply as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought unsanctioned tankers.
U.S. President Donald Trump has since laid out a sweeping plan to maximise oil and gas production, including declaring a national energy emergency to speed up permitting, rolling back environmental protections, and withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate pact.
Citi said the timing and nature of President Trump’s actions regarding Iran and Russia could be defining features of the oil market and pricing during 2025. It forecast a surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day for the year.
Commodities
Oil prices steady as investors watch Trump policies
By Arunima Kumar
(Reuters) -Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, with traders closely watching President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and the potential impact of the national energy emergency he declared on his first day in office.
futures inched 4 cents higher, or 0.05%, to $79.33 per barrel at 1246 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged 2 cents lower, or 0.03%, to $75.81.
“As more details emerge regarding energy production and trade agreements, traders will assess the balance between economic growth, energy security, and policy risks,” said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone.
Trump said late on Tuesday that his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%.
He also vowed duties on European imports, without providing further detail.
“The oil market’s attention is slowly turning away from U.S. sanctions against Russia towards President Trump’s potential trade policy,” said ING analysts, adding that the energy complex has come under pressure with the growing threat of tariffs.
The U.S. president had said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela, among the top suppliers of oil to the country.
Trump laid out a sweeping plan to maximise domestic oil and gas production, including declaring a national energy emergency to speed permitting, rolling back environmental protections, and withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate pact.
Trump’s policy is unlikely to spur near-term energy investment or change U.S. production growth, analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) wrote in a note, adding that it could, however, moderate potential erosion of refined product demand.
Meanwhile, a rare winter storm churned across the U.S. Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, North Dakota’s oil production was estimated to be down by between 130,000 and 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to extreme cold weather and related operational challenges, the state’s pipeline authority said on Tuesday.
Commodities
Oil falls as traders digest Trump tariff reprieve, stronger dollar
By Enes Tunagur
LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors assessed U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to apply new tariffs later than expected while boosting oil and gas production in the United States.
futures were down $1.42, or 1.77%, to $78.73 per barrel at 1116 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by $1.97, or 2.53%, at $75.91. There was no settlement in the U.S. market on Monday due to a public holiday.
Pressuring prices on Tuesday was a stronger U.S. dollar, as its strengthening makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
“The current weakness is most probably Trump and dollar-related,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
The dollar rebounded after Trump’s comments on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada, Varga added, noting that the dollar’s strength is negatively impacting oil prices.
Trump said he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from Feb. 1, rather than on his first day in office as previously promised.
“The initial sense of relief that trade measures weren’t an immediate focus on Trump’s ‘Day 1’ was quickly offset by reports of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February, which saw risk sentiments turn,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
Trump did not impose any sweeping new trade measures right after his inauguration on Monday, but told federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices by other countries.
The U.S. president also said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China.
Trump also promised to refill strategic reserves, a move that could be bullish for oil prices by boosting demand for oil.
Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthis on Monday said they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.
“Reopening of the Suez Canal will create a short-term abundance of supply given the shorter journey times, and that may also weigh on prices in the short term,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
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