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Sell Orders Dominate Perpetual Futures Markets Ahead of Spot Bitcoin ETF Decision: CryptoQuant

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Crypto market participants are moving to the sidelines, leading to low activity in the derivatives market as the date for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) approaches.

According to a weekly report from market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, the decline in derivatives market activity is due to the rising costs of opening long positions and the spike in profit-taking among investors.

Sell Orders Dominate Perpetual Futures Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) began the year trading around $42,400, rallied to $45,800 on January 2, and fell back to $41,800 the next day. The price fluctuations have been accompanied by relatively low activity in the derivative markets.

CryptoQuant’s analysts said open interests in perpetual futures markets are still at low levels, showing that BTC investors and traders stepped back from opening long positions after the December 2023 price rally and have even begun to take profits. This is evident in market leverage falling to its lowest since January 2022.

The soaring costs of opening long positions also caused traders to refrain from buying in the perpetual futures markets. Prices are currently as high as they were when BTC and Ether reached their all-time highs in November 2021.

The Taker Buy Sell volume ratio staying below one indicates that sell volume is dominating the perpetual futures markets as investors focus on realizing profits from the recent rallies. Although there is an increase in sell orders, short-term unrealized profits are still high, and this has preceded price corrections.

High Short-term Unrealized Profits

Last week, CryptoPotato reported that market participants like miners and short-term holders were sitting on unrealized profits with margins as high as 30%, adding that while they spent BTC at a profit, rallies usually came after short-term losses have been realized.

The development came as traders began to pay too much to open long positions, threatening to push BTC to $32,000, the short-term holder realized price.

The crypto community expects BTC to rally after the SEC approves the ETFs between January 8 and 10, but CryptoQuant has warned that the asset may plummet due to current market occurrences, turning the widely anticipated announcement into a sell-the-news event.

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Cryptocurrency

Can Ripple (XRP) Hit $10 in 2025? ChatGPT Answers

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TL;DR

  • The cryptocurrency space is full of bullish and sometimes relatively ridiculous price predictions for members’ favorite assets, so we decided to ask ChatGPT for its opinion on whether XRP has the legs to make a mind-blowing surge to double-digit territory.
  • It believes such a whopping 320% pump from current levels will require some “substantial developments.”

$10 Mission Possible?

The XRP Army, one of the most vocal communities in crypto, has outlined some massive predictions for the underlying asset, ranging from describing it as a modern-day Manhattan real estate opportunity to putting a future price tag of $100.

While these might sound a bit far-fetched at the moment, given XRP’s price of $2.38, we asked ChatGPT for another popular target – $10. After all, it would require a more modest 320% surge by the end of the year, something that Ripple’s token has done in the past – the last time was in late 2024/early 2025, when it shot up by even bigger percentages.

The AI solution noted that the lawsuit resolution against the SEC, which is not officially over yet, even though both parties agreed to a $50 million settlement, has opened the door for XRP to gain further traction as it has “removed a significant uncertainty, potentially boosting investor confidence and institutional interest.”

In terms of that institutional adoption, ChatGPT said a potential approval of a spot Ripple ETF in the States could skyrocket the underlying token’s price. The odds are relatively high, with Polymarket predicting a 79% chance for such a product to hit the US markets by the end of the year.

Lastly, the AI chatbot outlined the overall crypto market dynamics. The arrival of the much-anticipated altseason, which has been highly speculated in the past few weeks, could be among the biggest gain drivers for the second-largest non-stablecoin alt.

But These Challenges…

ChatGPT believes reaching a $10 price tag is not an easy task and comes with its own set of challenges. One of them is the actual size of XRP in terms of market cap, as it would require the metric to shoot up to $580 billion or even more, given the billion tokens released every month. This would put it at levels almost twice as high as ETH’s current one.

XRP also faces a lot of competition not only in the cryptocurrency space where investors can choose from thousands of altcoins, but in the traditional payment system where it serves as a cross-border token. As such, ChatGPT concluded:

“While reaching $10 is within the realm of possibility, it would require a confluence of favorable factors, including increased adoption, positive market sentiment, and supportive regulatory developments. Investors should consider these factors and conduct thorough research when evaluating XRP’s potential.”

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Metaplanet Hits All-Time High $6M Q1 Revenue as BTC Holdings Surge 3.9x

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The Japanese hospitality firm Metaplanet has disclosed record-breaking earnings for the first quarter of the year, primarily attributing the success to its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

According to the firm’s Q1 Earnings Report, its Bitcoin strategy contributed 88% to its revenue of 877 million Japanese yen ($6 million). Metaplanet’s consistent BTC accumulation has also earned it the spot of the 11th-largest public company by bitcoin holdings globally and number one in Asia.

Metaplanet Posts Record Q1 Financials

From January 1 to date, Metaplanet has added 5,034 BTC to its balance sheet, increasing its holdings by 3.9x to 6,796 BTC. These purchases were funded by a moving-strike warrant program, which enabled the company to issue equity without setting a fixed discount or strike.

As of May 10, the hospitality entity had executed 87% of the program, raising 76.6 billion yen ($524.8 million) and becoming the largest public equity issuer in the country. With the funds raised, Metaplanet has achieved approximately 68% of its near-term 10,000 BTC goal at a cost basis of 13.27 million yen ($90,929) per BTC.

Although the company recorded a 7.4 billion yen ($50.7 million) unrealized loss on its BTC position by the end of the quarter due to market prices, bitcoin’s recent rally has fully reversed the losses. The firm reported unrealized BTC gains of 13.5 billion yen ($92.5 million) as of May 12.

Evaluating its treasury performance, Metaplanet reported a BTC yield of 170% and a BTC gain of 2,996 BTC. These metrics measure the growth in BTC per diluted share and the BTC per shareholder unit.

Embracing a Bitcoin Treasury

Metaplanet said last quarter’s report posted the strongest financial result in its 20-year corporate history. The company’s core operating metrics and Bitcoin treasury key performance indicators (KPIs) also broke its records for the first time.

The entity recorded an operating profit of 593 million yen (over $4 million) after an 11% uptick quarter-on-quarter. Revenue rose 8%, while total assets surged 81% to 55 billion yen (more than $376.8 million) within the same time frame.

Due to the success of its Bitcoin treasury strategy, Metaplanet is urging other companies to consider adopting Bitcoin, offering its capital strategy as a blueprint.

“Our results speak for themselves: we don’t set targets to feel safe—we set them to exceed them, quarter after quarter. The global feedback loop between capital markets and Bitcoin is just beginning. Metaplanet intends to be its premier conduit,” the company said.

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Bitcoin Dominance Dives in May as Altcoins Form Golden Cross

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It’s a sign of a bullish market for all crypto assets that are not called BTC. Last time this happened in 2021, a bevy of popular altcoins returned cryptocurrency buyers 28,000% by the end of the market cycle.

Bitcoin Dominance Takes 4% Spill

Bitcoin’s market share fell from 65% to 61% between May 7 and May 13, according to TradingView. Markets haven’t seen that 65% level of BTC dominance over altcoins since 2021.

That year was the altseason, as crypto veterans like to call it, that launched Dogecoin’s price tens of thousands of percent upward in under 12 months.

Meanwhile, in 2021, a $100 Shiba Inu investment went from Jan. 1, 2021, to over $14 million by Mar. 2023. Two unemployed Millennial brothers from Westchester, NY, invested $8,000 in Shiba Inu that year after a family friend told them about it.

As Bitcoin boosters like to say: Do the math.

While a 4% dip in Bitcoin dominance may seem like a small fraction, the numerator here is a global Internet currency with a two trillion dollar market cap on May 7.

That’s something like an $80 billion dip in market share against altcoins over six days in May. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price and market cap grew by 7% during those six days, even as its wedge on the pie chart shrank.

Altcoins Form Bullish Golden Cross

Meanwhile, an index of altcoin prices formed a golden cross in May, potentially signaling bullish momentum into a prolonged bull run.

As one popular crypto YouTube analyst reported on May 13, the total altcoin market cap for major currencies has formed a golden cross. That’s when a shorter-term moving average crosses from below to above a longer-term moving average.

The moving average for a cryptocurrency is the periodically updated average of all its prices over a previous period. Traders use that to get a sense of the market’s inertia.

If the last market cycle’s performance repeats on this round, the total altcoin market cap could exceed $5 trillion sometime by 2026. Here are five more signals that altseason may soon commence.

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