Forex
Dollar trades in tight range ahead of key U.S. inflation release
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged lower Wednesday, trading in a tight range with traders on edge before key U.S. inflation data that could influence the future path of interest rates.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 102.147, after gaining 0.2% on Tuesday.
U.S. CPI set to drive dollar sentiment
The dollar has rebounded from December’s 2% fall as the traders have chosen the new year to reassess the likely speed and magnitude of the interest rate cuts most expect the Federal Reserve to deliver in 2024.
The Fed’s surprising dovish tilt in December has resulted in the market projecting around 150 basis points of cuts this year, but this is reliant on inflation continuing to retreat.
This brings Thursday’s December release firmly into focus, as it is likely to drive market sentiment until the next Fed meeting at the end of this month.
The headline figure is expected to rise 0.2% on the month, an annual rise of 3.2%, just up from 3.1% the prior month. However, the core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to fall to 3.8% on an annual basis, the lowest since mid-2021.
A speech by New York Fed President will also be studied carefully later in the session, as the influential policy maker has been on the hawkish side of the rate cut debate.
Euro helped by French industrial production
In Europe, traded 0.2% higher at 1.0947, with the single currency helped by data showing that rose 0.5% on the month in November, an improvement from the fall of 0.3% in the prior month.
That said, this presented a rare piece of good news from the region, with European Central Bank Vice President saying earlier Wednesday that the eurozone may have been in recession last quarter and prospects remain weak.
The European Central Bank has tried to make the case for keeping interest rates at record highs for some time, but is likely to come under pressure to ease monetary policy in the near future.
rose 0.1% to 1.2721, with Bank of England Governor set to testify before the U.K. Parliament later in the session on the financial stability report published in December.
“Any reference to the future path of monetary policy may follow the tone of the latest BoE meeting, where Bailey focused on pouring cold water on rate cut bets,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
Yen weakens close to 145 mark
Elsewhere, traded 0.3% higher to 144.94, inching closer to the 145 mark as traders grew more convinced that the will delay a pivot away from its ultra-dovish policies, particularly in the wake of the recent devastating earthquake in central Japan.
traded largely flat at 7.1682 ahead of key and later this week, which is expected to show little improvement in Asia’s largest economy.
rose 0.4% to 0.6710, as data showed eased in November, but still remained well above the Reserve Bank’s 2% to 3% annual target.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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