Stock Markets
Guatemala’s Arevalo due to assume presidency with difficult path ahead
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo addresses the media after meeting with Honduras President Xiomara Castro, at the Presidential House, in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, January 4, 2024. REUTERS/Fredy Rodriguez
By Sofia Menchu
GUATEMALA CITY (Reuters) – Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo is due to be sworn in Sunday for a four-year term, pledging to banish deep-rooted corruption, though he will come up against a divided Congress and string of judicial attempts to block him from wielding power.
Vowing to restore democracy in Guatemala, the most populous country in Central America with 17.1 million people, Arevalo, 65, won the August presidential run-off in a sweeping victory.
In the months after, Guatamala’s attorney general – seen as an ally of outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei – has intensified attempts to discredit Arevalo’s victory and hinder his transition.
The attorney general has tried to strip Arevalo and his Vice President-elect Karin Herrera of legal immunity, suspend his Semilla party and annul the election. The “coup” attempt, as Arevalo terms it, has drawn tens of thousands of Guatemalans to the streets and the international community, including the United States, has piled vast pressure on Giammattei’s administration to proceed with the transition of power.
The events leading up to Arevalo’s inauguration underscore Guatemala’s fragile rule of law, with the country pushed to the brink of a governance crisis that could limit his ability to rule and keep campaign pledges to root out bad political actors, fight organized crime and create new jobs.
“Problems are not over for Arevalo,” said Roberto Alejos, former Guatemalan Congressional and political analyst.
“They are not going to let him pass any law in Congress and he will have plenty of difficulties governing,” he added.
Despite its overwhelming victory in the presidential elections, Semilla – a social democratic, environmentalist and progressive party – barely achieved 23 of the 160 seats in the legislature. Giammattei’s conservative Vamos party and UNE, the party of former first lady Sandra Torres who Arevalo defeated in the election hold a combined greater power.
That makes Arevalo more vulnerable to ongoing political attacks, experts said.
“Actions to criminalize Arevalo and other members of the party could continue,” said Ana Maria Mendez, Central America director of the Washington Office on Latin American Affairs (WOLA), a rights group.
“(Attorney General Consuelo) Porras’s altering of the constitutional order is a serious threat to governance, stability and peace,” she added.
The attorney general’s office has denied it is attempting a coup and defended its actions as within the framework of the country’s laws
MIGRATION, POVERTY, CHINA & TAIWAN
Arevalo, a career diplomat, sociologist and son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, will grapple with a country with half its population living in poverty, rising costs of living and violence that is a main driver of Central American migrants to the United States.
His government will likely be “transitional” since poverty, economic and social rights are structural issues difficult to change in four years, analysts said.
“We don’t believe that the people of Guatemala at this moment are waiting for (us) to arrive with a magic wand,” Arevalo said in an interview with Reuters after his election victory in August.
“What they want to see… is authorities that finally assume the commitment to work for development and to work for the people, that is what we are going to do,” he said.
The government of Arevalo and Herrera will have to carefully balance demands by the United States to stem migration amid record-high remittances that keep the local economy afloat.
After winning the presidency, Arevalo said he will expand relations with China, which could imply a change in policy for Guatemala’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a move that could anger the United States. Arevalo, however, has denied that a closer relationship with China means breaking ties with Taiwan.
On Friday, Argus increased its stock price target on Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM) to $13.00, up from the previous $12.00, while reaffirming its Buy rating on the stock. The firm highlighted the company’s ongoing transformation and expansion efforts as the rationale behind the revised target price.
Rithm Capital, which rebranded from New Residential Investment Corp. in August 2022, has since transitioned to internal management after previously being managed by Fortress Investment Group. This change is part of a broader transformation of the company’s business model initiated following the financial crisis in late March 2020.
The company has been actively growing its mortgage servicing operations and seizing new debt-related investment opportunities. In its expansion efforts, Rithm Capital has acquired a 50% interest in GreenBarn Investment Group, a commercial real estate equity and debt investment management firm.
Further bolstering its portfolio, Rithm Capital has also made significant acquisitions, including purchasing $1.4 billion worth of Marcus consumer loans from Goldman Sachs for $145 million. Moreover, the company has completed the acquisition of Computershare Mortgage Services Inc. and its affiliates, including Specialized Loan Servicing LLC (SLS), for an approximate total of $720 million.
Completing its notable transactions, Rithm Capital finalized the acquisition of the $33 billion alternative asset manager Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE:) in the fourth quarter of 2023. These strategic moves have contributed to the firm’s positive outlook on Rithm Capital’s stock and its increased price target.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of Argus’s stock recent price target increase for Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM), InvestingPro data further supports the optimistic outlook. Rithm Capital’s market capitalization stands at a robust $5.55 billion, while maintaining an attractive P/E ratio of 7.41, indicating that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings.
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This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
On Friday, JPMorgan upheld its Overweight rating on CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038:HK) (OTC: CKISY) with a consistent price target of HK$50.00. The firm’s analysis was based on a review of the company’s financial year 2023 results and current operating trends. Adjustments were made to the earnings forecasts for the years 2024 and 2025, with a slight reduction for 2024 by 2% and an increase for 2025 by 2%. These revisions take into account the influence of regulatory changes, inflation, and fluctuating exchange rates on the company’s regulated assets, particularly in the United Kingdom, Australia, and other regions.
The updated model reflects the latest developments and anticipates the potential financial impact on CK Infrastructure. The firm has decided to roll forward its price target to June 2025, while maintaining the previous target of HK$50. The Overweight rating suggests that JPMorgan continues to view the stock favorably in comparison to the sector average.
CK Infrastructure Holdings, which operates a diversified portfolio of infrastructure businesses, has been assessed for its performance and outlook in light of various external factors. The company’s exposure to regulatory resets and economic conditions in different geographies necessitates a nuanced understanding of its earnings potential.
The revised earnings estimates are a direct result of the firm’s comprehensive evaluation of the company’s regulated assets. These assets, which are subject to oversight by regulatory bodies, can be affected by policy changes and economic shifts, such as inflation and currency exchange rates.
JPMorgan’s reaffirmation of the Overweight rating indicates confidence in CK Infrastructure’s ability to navigate the complexities of its operating environment. The price target of HK$50 remains unchanged, signaling the firm’s belief in the company’s value proposition and its prospects for the future.
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This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
On Friday, Argus maintained a Buy rating on Ashland Inc . (NYSE: NYSE:) and increased the stock’s price target to $118 from $109. This adjustment suggests a potential total return of approximately 21%, including dividends, based on the current share prices.
The specialty chemicals and additives provider has experienced underwhelming operational and financial performance over recent quarters, including the second quarter of 2024. This was attributed to slower economic growth in key regions such as China, Europe, and parts of Asia. These areas faced challenges due to soft customer demand and ongoing inventory destocking by suppliers, which adversely affected Ashland’s revenue and profit margins.
Despite these challenges, there have been positive signs in the last quarter indicating a shift in market conditions. Ashland’s management has reported a gradual increase in demand across most of the company’s end markets.
According to Argus, this improvement is a result of the destocking cycle nearing its end and customer demand beginning to rise, which are seen as favorable trends for Ashland’s future growth.
The revised stock price target reflects the analyst’s confidence in Ashland’s recovery trajectory as the market dynamics that previously hindered the company’s performance are starting to reverse. The upward revision in the price target is based on the expectation of a continued recovery in customer demand patterns and the conclusion of inventory destocking.
Investors and market watchers will be monitoring Ashland’s progress closely, as the company aims to capitalize on the improving demand in its various markets and work towards delivering value to its shareholders.
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InvestingPro Insights
As Argus maintains a positive outlook on Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH), highlighting the potential for a 21% total return, InvestingPro data provides additional insights into the company’s financial health and market performance.
Ashland’s management’s aggressive share buyback strategy and a high shareholder yield are noteworthy, as noted by InvestingPro Tips. Furthermore, the company’s consistent dividend growth, with dividends raised for five consecutive years and maintained for 54 years, underscores its commitment to shareholder returns.
From a market perspective, Ashland’s stock is trading near its 52-week high, with analysts predicting profitability for the year. The company’s strong liquidity position, with liquid assets surpassing short-term obligations, is reassuring for investors.
Key financial metrics include a market capitalization of $4.98 billion, a P/E ratio of 26.25, and a dividend yield of 1.64%. Despite a decline in revenue growth over the last twelve months, the stock has experienced a significant price uptick, with a 29.41% total return over the last six months.
For those considering a deeper analysis of Ashland, InvestingPro offers additional insights. There are currently 11 more InvestingPro Tips available for Ashland Inc., which can be accessed by visiting https://www.investing.com/pro/ASH. To enhance your investing strategy with these insights, use coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
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