Connect with us
  • tg

Forex

Dollar in demand on rate cut delay concerns, rising risk aversion

letizo News

Published

on

Dollar in demand on rate cut delay concerns, rising risk aversion
© Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar climbed higher in early European trade Tuesday, with risk sentiment hit by increased tensions in the Middle East as well as concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts .

At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.8% higher at 102.955, after having gained 0.2% overnight in subdued trading during a U.S. public holiday on Monday.

Dollar boosted by risk aversion

Raised tensions in the Middle East have supported the U.S. dollar, after the Houthi group said on Monday it will expand its targets in the Red Sea region to include U.S. ships after the U.S. and British strikes on its sites in Yemen.

However, the main driver of late has been expectations of when the will start cutting interest rates, in effect saying the battle against inflation has been won.

Hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials on Monday have caused traders to push back against the idea of early rate cuts globally.

Attention now turns to a speech by Fed Governor later on Tuesday, an influential member of the central bank’s policy-setting committee.

“Recall that he delivered the definitive and market-moving “something appears to be giving” speech in late November,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “The speech provided an important lead indicator for the Fed’s dovish turn at the December FOMC meeting.”

Sterling retreats after weaker average earnings growth

In Europe, fell 0.5% to 1.2658 after the release of labor data which showed that growth in fell to 6.6% in November, a fall from 7.2% the prior month.

This will be received positively by the Bank of England, as they try to rein in one of the highest inflation rates in the G7, but Wednesday’s release will probably be of more importance.

This is expected to fall to 3.8% on an annual basis, a small fall from 3.9% in November, still way above the central bank’s 2% medium-term target.

dropped 0.5% to 1.0896, with being confirmed at 3.7% on an annual basis in December, a jump from 3.2% the previous month.

“It’s too early to talk about cuts, inflation is too high,” ECB’s Joachim Nagel said on Monday, adding that the mistake of lowering interest rates too early should be avoided.

The euro is struggling to benefit from the hawkish talk though, as the German economy, the eurozone’s largest, is struggling under the weight of the series of interest rate hikes.

The German economy is likely to grow by just 0.3% in 2024, according to the country’s BDI industry association, while forecasting that the global economy will expand by 2.9%.

“The economy is at a standstill in Germany. Compared to most other major industrialised countries, our country is falling further behind,” said BDI president Siegfried Russwurm. “We don’t see any chance of a rapid recovery in 2024.”

Yuan falls to one-month low

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 7.1922, with the yuan retreating to an over one-month low against the dollar, as traders remained largely averse to Chinese assets amid continued concerns over an economic recovery.

Focus was now squarely on fourth-quarter data, due on Wednesday, for more cues on the economy. 

traded 0.5% higher to 146.49, after data showed Japanese inflation remained soft in December, coming just a few days before data, which is also expected to show inflation remaining languid.

 

 

Forex

Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls; sterling slips again

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com – The US dollar edged higher Friday, holding on to recent gains ahead of the release of the highly influential monthly jobs report, while sterling continued to retreat.

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 109.040, on course for a weekly gain of 0.3%.

This would be its sixth consecutive weekly gain, its longest run since an 11-week streak in 2023. 

Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls 

The dollar traded near its strongest levels since November 2022, holding on to recent gains as the US returned from a holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter.

The focus was squarely on data for December, due later in the session, as traders look for more cues on the US economy and the future path of interest rates. 

The of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, showed policy makers remain concerned over the potential for inflation to flare up again, especially given the likely impact of the expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump.

US nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show the economy added 154,000 jobs in December on top of the 227,000 in November, with holding at 4.2%.

Anything stronger would add to the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, boosting the dollar.

“We think the balance of risks is tilted to the upside for the dollar today, as robust jobs figures could prompt markets to price out a March cut and potentially push the first fully-priced move beyond June,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“We would still argue that with inflation concerns back on the rise – although the Fedspeak has been quite heterogeneous on that topic – next Wednesday’s CPI report could have deeper market ramifications.”

Sterling set for hefty weekly loss

In Europe, edged higher to 1.0303, helped by data showing that rose 0.2% on the month in November, an improvement from the prior month’s drop of 0.3% and above the fall of 0.1% expected.

That said, the euro remains weak, with the European Central Bank widely expected to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in 2025, around double the cuts expected by the US central bank, with the regional economy still very weak.

“Markets are pricing a good deal of negatives into the euro at this stage, and perhaps the euro may be penalised less than other G10 currencies should US payrolls come in strong today,” ING added.

traded 0.2% lower to 1.2285, with sterling on course to lose 1% this week after earlier falling to a 14-month low following a selloff in UK government bonds amid concern about British finances.

“We expect higher yields to act as an additional headwind to growth via household remortgaging and weaker investment,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, in a note.

“The rise in gilt yields reinforces our view that UK growth will disappoint in 2025, with our 0.9% real GDP growth forecast notably below consensus (1.4%), the BoE (1.5%) and the OBR (2%).”

Yuan lacks support

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 7.3513, with the Chinese currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December, released earlier in the week. 

The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China. 

dropped 0.1% to 157.85, with the Japanese currency helped by the release of stronger-than-expected data earlier Friday.

This followed on from a bigger-than-expected increase in wage growth on Thursday, and has sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. 

 

 

Continue Reading

Forex

Asia FX weakens with dollar near 2-year peak ahead of payrolls data

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar sat near its strongest level in over two years as traders braced for a potentially strong nonfarm payrolls reading due later in the day. 

Regional sentiment was also undermined by weak inflation data from China, while traders speculated over a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, although this provided only fleeting support to the yen.

The dollar moved little in overnight trade on account of a U.S. market holiday. But the greenback remained upbeat following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve earlier this week. 

Dollar steady near 2-yr high as nonfarm payrolls loom

The index and both firmed slightly in Asian trade, and were just below their strongest levels since November 2022.

Focus was squarely on data for December, due later on Friday, for more cues on the U.S. economy and interest rates. 

The greenback was buoyed by the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, which reiterated the central bank’s warning that rates will fall at a slower pace this year.

The minutes also showed policymakers concerned over expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump, which could underpin inflation in the long term.

Japanese yen weakens despite strong spending data 

The Japanese yen reversed Thursday’s gains and softened on Friday, with the pair rising 0.2% and remaining above the 158 yen level.

Stronger-than-expected data released on Friday sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, especially as data released on Thursday showed a bigger-than-expected increase in .

Analysts expect a virtuous cycle of high wages, steady inflation and improving private consumption to spur more rate hikes by the BOJ in the coming months, potentially as soon as the BOJ’s late-January meeting.

But the yen saw fleeting support on this notion, as it came under pressure from the prospect of higher for longer U.S. interest rates.

Broader Asian currencies weakened on Friday on a similar notion, with traders turning especially averse towards the region before the nonfarm payrolls reading. 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.3%, with the currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December. The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China. 

The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% and was close to a two-year low, as mixed inflation data released earlier in the week fueled bets on earlier interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.

The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4% amid continued political strife in the country, while the Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%.

The Indian rupee’s pair steadied below the 86 rupee level.

Continue Reading

Forex

Time to short dollar as latest surge suggest ‘Trump trade’ now priced in

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com — The surged to multi-year highs on Friday, hitting a level that an expert said would mark the pricing in of the ‘Trump Trade,’ leaving little room for further upside and creating an opportunity to turn bearish on the greenback.

The jumped 0.5% to to 109.67, and had earlier hit 109.91 — its highest level since November 2022.

“Start selling the dollar if our DXY 110 target is breached. Slowing global growth and a relatively more hawkish Fed have been priced in. So is a Donald Trump presidency,” Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange/Global Fixed Income Strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

The firm argues that this level would have fully priced in the “Trump-trade” and would be initiated from significantly overvalued levels.

The call for a weaker dollar comes as the strategist believes that “the bout of strength in US inflation, especially relative to other markets, is in its last innings,” amid expectations for a U.S. slowdown. 

While the latest jobs report for December signaled little sign of a slowdown, Ntonifor sees the risk of the U.S. economy slowing due to “tightening financial conditions in the US.”

Looking ahead, Ntonifor suggested that a potential scenario could unfold later this year where “equity markets correct, the US dollar declines, and bond yields fall.”

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved