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Fed hawks, doves, and centrists: Tracking US central bankers’ views
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo
(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
Now, as Fed policymakers note an improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a look at how officials view the outlook for Fed policy and how best to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances – for an accounting of how our counts have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Raphael Jerome Loretta Michelle
Bostic, Powell, Fed Mester, Bowman,
Atlanta Chair, Cleveland Governor,
Fed permanent Fed permanent
President, voter: “Decl President voter:”Whi
2024 aring , 2024 le the
voter: “If victory voter: current
we would be “March is stance of
continue premature probably monetary
to see a … But of too early policy
further course the in my appears to
accumulati question is estimatio be
on of when will it n for a sufficient
downside become rate ly
surprises appropriate decline.” restrictiv
in the to begin Jan. 11, e … I
data it’s dialing 2024 remain
possible back?” Dec. willing to
for me to 13, 2023 raise the
get federal
comfortabl funds rate
e to further at
advocate a future
normalizat meeting.”
ion sooner Jan. 8,
than the 2024
third
quarter.
But the
evidence
would need
to be
convincing
.” Jan.
18, 2024
Patrick John Thomas
Harker, Williams, Barkin,
Philadelph New York Fed Richmond
ia Fed President, Fed
President, permanent President
2026 voter: “It , 2024
voter: will only be voter: “G
“It’s appropriate etting
important to dial back inflation
that we the degree under
start to of policy control
move rates restraint is
down … when we are criticall
we don’t confident y
have to do that important
it too inflation is .” Jan.
fast, moving 5, 2024
we’re not toward 2% on
going to a sustained
do it basis.” Jan.
right 10, 2024
away, it’s
going to
take some
time.”
Dec. 20,
2023
Philip Lorie
Jefferson, Logan,
Vice Chair: Dallas
“We are in a Fed
sensitive President
period of , 2026
risk voter:
management, “We
where we shouldn’t
have to take the
balance the possibili
risk of not ty of
having another
tightened rate
enough, increase
against the off the
risk of table
policy being just
too yet.”
restrictive. Jan. 6,
” Oct. 9, 2024
2023
Christopher Neel
Waller, Kashkari,
Governor, Minneapol
permanent is Fed
voter: “The President
key thing is , 2026
the economy voter:
is doing “When
well. It is activity
giving us continues
the to run
flexibility this hot,
to move that
carefully makes me
and question
methodically if policy
.” Jan. 16, is as
2024 tight as
we assume
it
currently
is.” Nov.
7, 2023
Michael
Barr, Vice
Chair of
Supervision,
permanent
voter: The
Fed is “at
or near the
peak” of
interest
rates.” Nov.
17, 2023
Lisa Cook,
Governor,
permanent
voter: “I
see risks as
two-sided,
requiring us
to balance
the risk of
not
tightening
enough
against the
risk of
tightening
too much.”
Nov. 16,
2023
Mary Daly,
San
Francisco
Fed
President,
2024
voter: “It
takes
patience. It
takes
gradualism.”
Jan. 19,
2024
Austan
Goolsbee,
Chicago Fed
President,
2025
voter: “If
we continue
to make
surprising
progress,
faster than
was
forecast, on
inflation,
then we have
to take that
into account
in
determining
the level of
restrictiven
ess … but
we don’t
want to
commit
ourselves
before the
job is
done.” Jan.
19, 2024
Susan
Collins,
Boston Fed
President,
2025 voter:
The Fed
should be
“patient and
resolute,
and I
wouldn’t
take
additional
firming off
the table.”
Nov. 17,
2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred last July. Projections released on Dec. 13 showed no policymakers believe rates should go any higher this year, and a majority see them dropping by at least 75 basis points. Three policymakers – Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, and Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2 – have not made any substantive policy remarks and are not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2
Stock Markets
Palantir, Anduril join forces with tech groups to bid for Pentagon contracts, FT reports
(Reuters) – Data analytics firm Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:) and defense tech company Anduril Industries are in talks with about a dozen competitors to form a consortium that will jointly bid for U.S. government work, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
The consortium, which could announce agreements with other tech groups as early as January, is expected to include SpaceX, OpenAI, autonomous shipbuilder Saronic and artificial intelligence data group Scale AI, the newspaper said, citing several people with knowledge of the matter.
“We are working together to provide a new generation of defence contractors,” a person involved in developing the group told the newspaper.
The consortium will bring together the heft of some of Silicon Valley’s most valuable companies and will leverage their products to provide a more efficient way of supplying the U.S. government with cutting-edge defence and weapons capabilities, the newspaper added.
Palantir, Anduril, OpenAI, Scale AI and Saronic did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. SpaceX could not be immediately reached for a comment.
Reuters reported earlier this month that President-elect Donald Trump’s planned U.S. government efficiency drive involving Elon Musk could lead to more joint projects between big defense contractors and smaller tech firms in areas such as artificial intelligence, drones and uncrewed submarines.
Musk, who was named as a co-leader of a government efficiency initiative in the incoming government, has indicated that Pentagon spending and priorities will be a target of the efficiency push, spreading anxiety at defense heavyweights such as Boeing (NYSE:) , Northrop Grumman (NYSE:) , Lockheed Martin (NYSE:) and General Dynamics (NYSE:) .
Musk and many small defense tech firms have been aligned in criticizing legacy defense programs like Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet while calling for mass production of cheaper AI-powered drones, missiles and submarines.
Such views have given major defense contractors more incentive to partner with emerging defense technology players in these areas.
Stock Markets
Weakened Iran could pursue nuclear weapon, White House’s Sullivan says
By Simon Lewis (JO:)
(Reuters) -The Biden administration is concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, adding that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the risk.
Iran has suffered setbacks to its regional influence after Israel’s assaults on its allies, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, followed by the fall of Iran-aligned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Tehran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN.
“It’s no wonder there are voices (in Iran) saying, ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now … Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine’,” Sullivan said.
Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has expanded uranium enrichment since Trump, in his 2017-2021 presidential term, pulled out of a deal between Tehran and world powers that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
Sullivan said that there was a risk that Iran might abandon its promise not to build nuclear weapons.
“It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on,” Sullivan said, adding that he had also consulted with U.S. ally Israel.
Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, could return to his hardline Iran policy by stepping up sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.
Sullivan said Trump would have an opportunity to pursue diplomacy with Tehran, given Iran’s “weakened state.”
“Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term,” he said.
Stock Markets
Ukraine says Russian general deliberately targeted Reuters staff in August missile strike
(Reuters) -Ukraine’s security service has named a Russian general it suspects of ordering a missile strike on a hotel in eastern Ukraine in August and said he acted “with the motive of deliberately killing employees of” Reuters.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said in a statement on Friday that Colonel General Alexei Kim, a deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, approved the strike that killed Reuters safety adviser Ryan Evans and wounded two of the agency’s journalists on Aug. 24.
In a statement posted on Telegram messenger the SBU said it was notifying Kim in absentia that he was an official suspect in its investigation into the strike on the Sapphire Hotel in Kramatorsk, a step in Ukrainian criminal proceedings that can later lead to charges.
In a separate, 15-page notice of suspicion, in which the SBU set out findings from its investigation, the agency said that the decision to fire the missile was made “with the motive of deliberately killing employees of the international news agency Reuters who were engaged in journalistic activities in Ukraine”.
The document, which was published on the website of the General Prosecutor’s Office on Friday, said that Kim had received intelligence that Reuters staff were staying in Kramatorsk. It added that Kim would have been “fully aware that the individuals were civilians and not participating in the armed conflict”.
The Russian defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the SBU’s findings and has not replied to previous questions about the attack. The Kremlin also did not respond to a request for comment. Kim did not reply to messages sent by Reuters to his mobile telephone seeking comment about the SBU’s statement and whether the strike deliberately targeted Reuters staff.
The SBU did not provide evidence to support its claims, nor say why Russia targeted Reuters. In response to questions from the news agency, the security agency declined to provide further details, saying its criminal investigation was still under way and it was therefore not able to disclose such information.
Reuters has not independently confirmed any of the SBU’s claims.
Reuters said on Friday: “We note the news today from the Ukrainian security services regarding the missile attack on August 24, 2024, on the Sapphire Hotel in Kramatorsk, a civilian target more than 20 km from Russian-occupied territory.”
“The strike had devastating consequences, killing our safety adviser, Ryan Evans, and injuring members of our editorial team. We continue to seek more information about the attack. It is critically important for journalists to be able to report freely and safely,” the statement said.
Reuters declined to comment further on the allegation that its staff were deliberately targeted.
The SBU statement said Kim had been named a suspect under two articles of the Ukrainian criminal code: waging an aggressive war and violating the laws and customs of war.
“It was Kim who signed the directive and gave the combat order to fire on the hotel, where only civilians were staying,” it said.
Evans, a 38-year-old former British soldier who had worked as a safety adviser for Reuters since 2022, was killed instantly in the strike.
The SBU statement gave some details about how the strike had occurred, according to its investigation.
“To carry out the attack, the Russian colonel general involved one of his subordinate missile forces units,” the Ukrainian agency said, adding that the strike was carried out with an Iskander-M ballistic missile.
The SBU did not identify the specific unit.
Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey, a videographer for the news agency who was in a room across the corridor, was seriously wounded. Kyiv-based text correspondent Dan Peleschuk was also injured.
The remaining three members of the Reuters team escaped with minor cuts and scratches.
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