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Return of US oil sanctions on Venezuela to hit revenue, fuel imports

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Return of US oil sanctions on Venezuela to hit revenue, fuel imports
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of the headquarters of the Venezuelan oil company PDVSA in Caracas, Venezuela July 21, 2016. Picture taken July 21, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins/File Photo

By Marianna Parraga and Mayela Armas

HOUSTON/CARACAS (Reuters) – A reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors would hurt the OPEC country’s ability to collect cash from its oil exports, crimp new energy investments and raise the risks of domestic fuel scarcity, analysts and executives said.

Washington this week ordered a wind down of all business transactions between U.S entities and Venezuela’s state miner Minerven, and said it would unwind in April its easing of energy sanctions if President Nicolas Maduro’s administration does not stick to an agreement signed last year to accept conditions for a fair presidential election.

The U.S. is increasing its pressure since the South American country’s top court last week upheld a ban blocking the leading opposition hopeful, Maria Corina Machado, from the election.

The U.S., which first imposed oil sanctions on Venezuela in 2019, had granted sanctions relief for the OPEC member country in October in recognition of the election deal.

As a result of easing sanctions, Venezuela was expected to grow its total oil revenue to as much as $20 billion this year from some $12 billion in 2023, according to Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica. Larger exports of crude and petrochemicals to cash-paying customers in countries from the U.S. to India were behind its forecast.

“Price discounts on Venezuela’s crude had reduced a lot and cashing sales proceeds became easier for state company PDVSA. That was helping Maduro,” said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

“If the license is withdrawn in April, the proceeds will be reduced again and the scenarios of strong economic growth and a competitive election will fade,” he added.

Risks of a new bout of acute fuel scarcity also are poised to increase, experts said.

Even if Washington continues authorizations for debt repayment deals to Chevron (NYSE:), Eni, Repsol (OTC:) and Maurel & Prom to avoid a total break with Venezuela, that might not provide sustainable investment to expand output.

“Specific licenses to one or two companies are not going to be very beneficial as a return of investment to Venezuela,” said Ali Moshiri, CEO of Amos Global Energy, which has interests in the South American country.

“That is not really going to move the needle for Venezuela’s oil sector to increase production significantly,” he added.

LOST EFFORT?

The U.S. sanction easing, which began in November 2022 with a special license to Chevron, marked a big change for the South American country’s coffers.

PDVSA since 2019 had been forced to switch most of its oil trading to swaps and funnel sales through intermediaries because customers did not want to be exposed to sanctions.

Oil exports by PDVSA and its joint venture partners rose almost 13% to an average 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year, tanker tracking data showed, while the country’s crude output grew 9% to 783,000 bpd. The company reestablished relationships with some of its former key clients.

The relaxation increased oil revenue, boosting Venezuela’s gross domestic product by 5% in 2023. It also paved the way for Venezuela to plan for an expansion of public spending for the first time in years to woo voters.

Venezuela’s oil minister Pedro Tellechea on Tuesday said the country was prepared to counter a return of sanctions and warned that the U.S. could also suffer from fewer Venezuelan oil exports.

But his message did little to calm companies that were planning purchases of Venezuelan oil and partnerships for energy projects in Venezuela, according to sources.

Commodities

Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.

inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.

The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.

Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook

Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. 

Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook. 

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.

Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals

The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

The  rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.

Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors

Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.

Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories

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Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.

At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.

Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.

Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China. 

China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices. 

China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.

To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.

US crude inventories shrink- API

US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.

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Commodities

Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions

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Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.

rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains. 

The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.

Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.

US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high

The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook

Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.

Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)  rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.

Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.

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