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If History Repeats, Here’s How High Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Go Post Halving (Analysis)

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With the fourth halving event scheduled for April this year, speculation about Bitcoin’s future trajectory is rampant.

One notable voice in this conversation is Charles Edwards, the founder of hedge fund Capriole Investments, who has made a striking prediction – if Bitcoin’s post-halving returns mimic those of 2020, the market could be witnessing a staggering $280,000 valuation within the next year.

2020: “Worst Bitcoin Bull Market”

Matching the exceptional performance seen in 2020 could be viewed as an overly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. However, Edwards dismissed 2020 as an outlier, labeling it as the worst Bitcoin bull market in history.

He further attributed this underwhelming performance to two significant factors: the substantial decline in the mining network, primarily due to China’s crackdown, and the subsequent aggressive tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve.

In contrast, Edwards pointed to a starkly different landscape in 2024. Quantitative easing has resumed, and the Fed, under Chair Powell’s leadership, is anticipated to implement three interest rate cuts this year alone. This dovish stance suggested a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with a stronger Bitcoin.

Moreover, Edwards also drew attention to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, likening their impact to a “second halving.”

A $300,000 Bitcoin Price Prediction

The crypto analyst highlighted the growth of the gold market following the introduction of the GLD ETF in 2004, suggesting that Bitcoin, with its smaller market cap, could potentially experience even more substantial gains.

The rapid pace of technological adoption further bolstered Edwards’ bullish outlook. He asserted that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory surpassed even that of the Internet, citing the increasing velocity of market movements in today’s digital age.

So, what’s the bottom line, according to Edwards? He predicted a 500% return over the 18 months following the halving, coupled with an additional 300% appreciation over the next 2-5 years from the ETFs alone. Combining these factors led him to a conservative estimate of a $300,000 Bitcoin price within the next couple of years.

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Cryptocurrency

HYPE Shoots Up 9% to $20, BTC Price Returns to $95K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price slipped toward the lower boundary channel of its current consolidation range but managed to bounce off immediately and is now close to the upper one.

Most altcoins continue with sideways action, aside from HYPE and PI from the larger caps, as both have notched impressive gains over the past 24 hours.

BTC Returns to $95K

The primary cryptocurrency broke above $90,000 last Tuesday and hasn’t looked back since. Moreover, it climbed to $96,000 on Friday, which became a two-month high. Thus, it had recovered over $20,000 since the April 7 and 9 lows of under $75,000.

However, the fight between buyers and sellers reached equilibrium at this point as BTC’s price has failed to make a big move in the past week or so. The asset has been stuck in a tight range between $93,000 and $95,000, with very few attempts to break away in either direction.

The past 24 hours saw a price drop to the lower boundary, but that support line held strong, and bitcoin now trades around $95,000 once again. This muted volatility has caused a lot of speculation that BTC is likely to break free soon, with a major move hiding around the corner.

For now, though, BTC’s market cap remains close to $1.890 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is well above 61% on CG.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

HYPE Aims at $20

Most larger-cap alts have mimicked BTC’s performance as of late, with little to no moves in either direction. ETH, SOL, DOGE, TRX, and LINK are with minor gains, while XRP, ADA, BNB, SUI, AVAX, and XLM have seen insignificant losses.

HYPE and PI have notched the biggest gains from the larger caps. HYPE is up to $20 after an 8.5% daily surge, while PI has tapped $0.6 after a 5% increase.

VIRTUAL has exploded by 23% over the past day, followed by CRV and FARTCOIN as both have risen by around 10%.

The total crypto market cap has added over $25 billion since yesterday and is up to $3.075 trillion.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

3 Key Signs That Bitcoin (BTC) Is Preparing For a Big Price Move

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Bitcoin had a volatile and violent start to Q2 as its price tumbled at the beginning of April to a five-month low of under $75,000. This massacre transpired during the darkest days (for now) of US President Trump’s escalating trade war against the rest of the world.

As his policy and intentions became clearer and he paused the tariffs against every single nation except for China, BTC started to recover and gained $20,000 in the next couple of weeks. Since it broke above $90,000, though, over a week ago, the asset has remained sluggish in a tight sideways channel between $93,000 and $95,000.

There was a breakdown attempt yesterday, but the lower boundary held strong, and BTC is back testing the upper one now. According to several key metrics, this consolidation phase could be nearing an end, hinting at an upcoming substantial price move.

Squeezing BBs

Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the reduced volatility as of late, which is shown by the squeezing Bollinger Bands. The momentum indicator, composed of three lines with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the middle, has tightened on the 4-hour BTC chart, and Martinez warned that “a major price move could be just around the corner.”

Although the BBs are a secondary technical tool and do not provide a clear indication of the direction of the move, the analyst said BTC has a notable chance to head north if it remains above the key support of $93,198, which has held its price on a couple of occasions in the past week.

Moreover, BTC could surge toward a new all-time high of around $114,230 if it breaks above $95,870, he added.

Accumulation Skyrockets

The second and third signs hinting at an upcoming big BTC move are somewhat similar, but they are worth differentiating. On one hand, we have the growing accumulation of whales. As reported yesterday, these market participants had acquired $4 billion worth of bitcoin within just two weeks.

On the other hand, there are the BTC ETFs, which broke the previous negative streak and recorded a positive one from April 17 to April 30. Although this trend came to an end yesterday, it was with a minor $56.3 million in outflows, which is far below the billions attracted before that.

Martinez highlighted these substantial purchases and noted that the BTC Accumulation Trend Score has neared 1, which is a clear indication of larger entities going on a shopping spree.

Bonus: The number of bitcoins sitting on exchanges has been gradually declining, reaching a five-year low. While this is another bullish sign for the future price movements of the underlying asset, Swan’s analysts explained why it hasn’t reacted yet.

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Trump’s Crypto Advisor Says There’s A ‘Space Race’ to Build a Bitcoin Reserve

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Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, has said that the country is in a global “space race” to build a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.

Hines also confirmed that the government is moving swiftly to establish a Strategic Bitcoin stockpile.

Bitcoin Stockpile Plans

In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, the White House crypto advisor stated that countries around the world are quietly working to collect Bitcoin as a long-term asset, emphasizing that America aims to take the lead.

According to him, the administration is collaborating with the Treasury Department to audit current Bitcoin holdings and design “budget-neutral” acquisition methods. He also clarified that no single policy approach is being pursued. Instead, multiple strategies are being explored to determine the most practical and efficient path forward.

Hines expressed confidence in the U.S. Treasury Department and the Chamber of Commerce to develop “extremely creative” ways to accumulate the flagship cryptocurrency. The initial objective is to begin the process quickly, prioritizing speed and scalability, with additional steps to be introduced in phases.

The crypto advisor has previously cited tariffs implemented by the president as a potential means for building federal Bitcoin reserves.

When asked about how much Bitcoin the U.S. wants to acquire, Hines referred to it as “a silly question,” implying that the government has plans to hold more of the digital asset.

Milestones and Bitcoin’s Value

Reflecting on the first days of his administration, the 29-year-old highlighted early actions taken under President Trump, including an executive order signed during his first week in office. The directive created an interagency working group, officially ended what is widely known as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” and led to major regulatory reversals.

This included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropping key lawsuits and banking regulators easing restrictions on crypto firms. The Trump administration also hosted the first-ever White House Crypto Summit.

Hines stated that the U.S. is positioning itself to become “the crypto capital of the world,” aligning with the president’s broader vision to make America the most attractive destination for innovation in digital assets.

The former Republican nominee was appointed in January 2025 to the newly formed crypto advisory group and serves alongside crypto czar David Sacks. Although he acknowledged the existence of other digital ecosystems, Hines emphasized that the main focus is on Bitcoin due to its uniqueness.

He also referred to the cryptocurrency as “digital gold,” describing it as a commodity, not a security. Trump’s advisor referenced its origins and the concept of “Immaculate Conception,” a term previously used by David Sacks to show its intrinsic value.

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