Commodities
Oil gains as Gaza ceasefire talks in focus
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Oil rig pumpjacks, also known as thirsty birds, extract crude from the Wilmington Field oil deposits area near Long Beach, California July 30, 2013. REUTERS/David McNew/File Photo
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices maintained upward momentum on Tuesday as investors awaited the result of top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken’s efforts in the Middle East to halt the Gaza war and quell tensions in a major oil-producing region.
futures gained 55 cents to $78.54 a barrel by 1224 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 48 cents to $73.26. Both contracts gained nearly 1% on Monday, rising for the first time in four sessions.
“The signs of de-escalation in the Middle-Eastern crisis are missing and continue to extend some support to ailing oil prices,” said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
As part of his trip to the region, Blinken met Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler on Monday, and on Tuesday landed in Cairo for his meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. Palestinians hope the visit will clinch a truce before a threatened Israeli assault on Rafah, a border city where about half the Gaza Strip population is sheltering.
The ceasefire offer, delivered to Hamas last week by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, awaits a reply from militants who say they want more guarantees it will end the four-month-old war.
At the same time, the United States continued its campaign against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, whose attacks on shipping vessels have disrupted global oil trading routes. The group has described their recent attacks as acts of solidarity with Palestinians.
The U.S. strikes “do not point to an easing of tensions”, said Commerzbank (ETR:) analysts Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch in a note.
Yet souring demand expectations limited oil’s gains.
Analysts said expectations of “higher for longer” interest rates in the U.S. and elsewhere plus China’s shaky economy could cap consumption.
CMC Markets (LON:) analyst Leon Li also said it would be “difficult to return to previous highs” given that the run of strong economic indicators from the U.S. would likely lose steam.
“Layoffs are still increasing. This means that in the long term, the (oil) demand will decline,” Li said.
On the supply side, market participants are awaiting industry data due later on Tuesday on stockpiles. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to Feb. 2.
By Scott DiSavino
(Reuters) – U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and rigs operating for a third week in a row to the lowest since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:) said in its closely followed report on Friday.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by four to 576 in the week to Jan. 24.
Baker Hughes said this week’s decline puts the total rig count down 45, or 7% below this time last year.
Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by six to 472 this week, their lowest since December 2021, while gas rigs rose by one to 99.
In the Permian Basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, the nation’s biggest oil-producing shale basin, the rig count fell by six in the week to 298, the lowest since February 2022.
That six-rig decline in the Permian was the biggest weekly drop since August 2023.
The oil and gas rig count declined by about 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 as lower U.S. oil and gas prices over the past couple of years prompted energy firms to focus more on paying down debt and boosting shareholder returns rather than raising output.
Even though analysts forecast U.S. spot crude prices could decline for a third year in a row in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected crude output would rise from a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to around 13.6 million bpd in 2025.
On the gas side, the EIA projected a 43% increase in spot gas prices in 2025 would prompt producers to boost drilling activity this year after a 14% price drop in 2024 caused several energy firms to cut output for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic reduced demand for the fuel in 2020. [NGAS/POLL]
The EIA projected gas output would rise to 104.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025, up from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 and a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
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