Forex
Dollar surges to 11-week high as Fed rate cut bets diminish
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© Reuters.
By Herbert Lash and Harry Robertson
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar climbed to its highest in almost three months against nine other major currencies on Monday as traders slashed bets the Federal Reserve would aggressively cut interest rates this year after new economic data further diminished those odds.
U.S. services sector growth picked up in January as new orders increased and employment rebounded, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said, suggesting economic growth momentum from the fourth quarter spilled over into the new year.
ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI increased to 53.4 from 50.5 in December, higher than 52.0 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which drives more than two-thirds of the economy.
The data added to Friday’s blockbuster U.S. jobs report that far exceeded expectations and forced the market to readjust its outlook for rate cuts, the dollar’s strength and how high Treasury yields, which act to bolster the U.S. currency, can go.
“The question is, who can keep up with the U.S. in terms of the rates adjustment?” said Steven Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered (OTC:) Bank in New York. “The market’s answer so far is not too many central banks and not too many of their currencies.”
Treasury yields started to rise early on Monday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said over the weekend that the U.S. central bank could “give it some time” before cutting rates. Yields rose further on news of the ISM survey.
The dollar rose against all members of the G10 grouping of currencies that are among the most liquid in the world.
The , which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies, jumped to 104.60, its highest since Nov. 14, and was last up 0.36% at 104.40.
The two-year Treasury yield was last up 9.4 basis points at 4.4638%, after jumping 18 bps on Friday.
The euro fell to its lowest since Nov. 14 at $1.0721 and was last down 0.43% at $1.0744.
In an interview with the CBS News show “60 Minutes” that aired on Sunday but was conducted a day before the jobs report on Thursday, Powell said the Fed could be patient in deciding when to cut its benchmark interest rate.
“The prudent thing to do is … to just give it some time and see that the data confirm that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustainable way,” Powell said.
Japan’s yen fell to its lowest since Nov. 27 at 148.89 per dollar, and was last at 148.68.
Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said a weak euro zone economy was also likely weighing on the euro.
“We have stagnation in Germany,” Foley said. “I think we’re going into a period when it’s going to be really hard for the euro to make significant gains.”
Data on Monday showed that German exports fell more than expected in December due to weak global demand.
RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS
Fed funds futures now show roughly 115 basis points (bps) worth of easing priced in for the Fed this year, down from about 150 bps at the end of last year.
A March cut is now seen as a 14.5% possibility, down sharply from 46.2% a week ago, according to CME Group (NASDAQ:)’ FedWatch Tool.
Sterling was down 0.75% to $1.2537, its lowest since Dec. 13, as the dollar rallied.
The pound showed little reaction to revised data that indicated Britain’s unemployment rate was lower than expected at the end of the year.
slid about 1.4% to 42,355.70 in late trading.
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
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By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
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Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
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Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
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