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Oil prices rise after Gaza ceasefire rejection; Weak China data limits gains

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Oil prices rise after Gaza ceasefire rejection; Weak China data limits gains
© Reuters.

Investing.com– Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday as the rejection of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal pointed to continued unrest in the Middle East, although weak economic signals from China put a lid on gains.   

Prices extended gains from Wednesday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire deal proposed by Hamas leaders, dashing hopes for an end to the conflict that has now appeared to have spilled over into more Middle Eastern territories. 

U.S.-led forces continued with their strikes against the Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi group, which in turn gave little indication of ceasing its attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. This heralded more potential supply disruptions in the Suez Canal, which is expected to disrupt Asian and European oil supplies. 

expiring in April rose 0.3% to $79.47 a barrel, while rose 0.4% to $74.19 a barrel by 20:59 ET (01:59 GMT). 

Still, bigger gains in oil prices were held back by weak economic signals from top importer China, as well as mixed cues from U.S. inventory data. 

Markets weigh weak China inflation, mixed US inventories 

Chinese grew less than expected in January, official data showed on Thursday, while remained in contraction for a 16th consecutive month. 

The readings pointed to sustained economic weakness in the world’s largest oil importer, and factored into concerns over sluggish oil demand in the coming months. 

China has remained a key pain point for oil markets, as a post-COVID economic recovery in the country largely failed to materialize over the past year. 

U.S. inventory data also provided middling signals on supply and demand. While and inventories saw modest draws in the week to February 2, overall U.S. grew much more than expected as production recovered from a cold snap through January.

While record-high U.S. production has also served as a pain point for oil prices, the Energy Information Administration forecast a reduction in output through 2024, and that production will only retake record highs in early-2025. The forecast offered some support to oil prices this week. 

But gains in crude were largely held back by a strong , as markets began steadily pricing out the chances of early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. 

The central bank is now only expected to begin cutting rates by June 2024, with a chorus of Fed officials this week downplaying bets on early cuts. 

Recent signs of resilience in the U.S. economy are also expected to give the Fed more headroom to keep rates higher for longer.

Commodities

Oil prices rise; set for second straight weekly gain

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Investing.com–Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain as optimism around China’s economic growth lifted market sentiment.

The were last up 0.8% to $76.6 a barrel, and  expiring in February was up 1.1% to $73.3 a barrel.

Oil had gained sharply in the previous session after data showed growth in Chinese factory activity.

Both contracts were on course for second consecutive weekly gains, with WTI 1.3% and 0.9% higher. 

Chinese stimulus hopes support oil prices

China’s  grew in December, a Caixin/S&P Global survey showed on Thursday, but at a slower pace than expected.

An official survey released on Tuesday also showed that China’s manufacturing activity barely grew in December. However, services and construction fared better, with the data suggesting that policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors.

Beijing has signaled looser monetary policy for 2025 and has doled out a raft of major stimulus measures since late September, in order to boost its sluggish economy.

China’s central bank has indicated that it plans to lower interest rates from the current 1.5% “at an appropriate time” in 2025, the Financial Times reported on Friday.

Traders assess EIA data amid oversupply concerns

{{8849|US crude oil inventories declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks saw significant increases as demand softened during the week ending December 27, the reported on Thursday.

The EIA stated that dropped by 1.2 million barrels last week, falling short of analysts’ expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel decrease.

Latest EIA surveys have shown that U.S. oil production remains near record levels, and the incoming Donald Trump administration is likely to agree to policies that would focus on ramping up domestic fossil fuel production.

This comes amid worries about potential oversupply driven by anticipated production increases from non-OPEC nations, further underscoring an oversupply scenario.

The International Energy Agency recently said that the oil market will remain adequately supplied, despite a rise in demand forecast for 2025.

(Peter Nurse contributed to this article.)

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Biden to ban new oil drilling over vast areas of US Atlantic, Pacific waters, Bloomberg News reports

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(Reuters) – President Joe Biden is set to ban new offshore oil and gas development across 625 million acres (250 million hectares) of U.S. coastal territory, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

The ban, to be announced on Monday, rules out the sale of drilling rights in stretches of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, said the report, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Biden is leaving the possibility open for new oil and leasing in the central and western areas of the Gulf of Mexico, which account for around 14% of the nation’s production of these fuels, the report said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside of business hours.

The ban would solidify Biden’s legacy on addressing climate change and his goal to decarbonize the U.S. economy by 2050.

The New York Times (NYSE:) reported that a section of the law Biden’s decision relies on, the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, gives a president wide leeway to bar drilling and does not include language that would allow President-elect Donald Trump or other future presidents to revoke the ban.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on securing 235 judicial confirmations, at the White House in Washington, U.S., January 2, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

Biden, Trump and Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, all used the law to ban sales of offshore drilling rights in some coastal areas.

Trump tried in 2017 to reverse Arctic and Atlantic Ocean withdrawals Obama had made at the end of his presidency, but a federal judge ruled in 2019 that the law does not give presidents the legal authority to overturn prior bans.

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Russia clears thousands of tons of contaminated sand after Black Sea oil spill

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(Reuters) – Russian rescue workers have cleared more than 86,000 metric tons of contaminated sand and earth on either side of the Kerch Strait following an oil spill in the Black Sea last month, the emergencies ministry said on Saturday.

The oil leaked from two ageing tankers that were hit by a storm on Dec. 15. One sank and the other ran aground.

More than 10,000 people have been working to shovel up viscous, foul-smelling fuel oil from sandy beaches in and around Anapa, a popular summer resort. Environmental groups have reported deaths of dolphins, porpoises and sea birds.

The emergencies ministry said on the Telegram messaging app that oil-tainted soil had been collected in the broader Kuban region in Russia and in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Kyiv in 2014.

The ministry published video footage showing dozens of workers in protective suits loading bags of dirt onto diggers and others skimming dirt off the sand with shovels.

Russia’s transport ministry said this week experts had established that about 2,400 metric tons of oil products had spilled into the sea, a smaller spill than initially feared.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A volunteer works to clear spilled oil on the coastline following an incident involving two tankers damaged in a storm in the Kerch Strait, in the settlement of Blagoveshchenskaya near the Black Sea resort of Anapa in the Krasnodar region, Russia December 21, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov/File Photo

When the disaster struck, state media reported that the stricken tankers, both more than 50-years old, were carrying some 9,200 metric tons (62,000 barrels) of oil products in total.

The spill involved heavy M100-grade fuel oil that solidifies at a temperature of 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) and, unlike other oil products, does not float to the surface but sinks to the bottom or remains suspended in the water column.

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