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Mixed US consumer price revisions leave slowing inflation trend intact

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Mixed US consumer price revisions leave slowing inflation trend intact
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A woman shops for groceries at El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. monthly consumer prices rose less than initially thought in December, but the overall inflation revisions were mixed, and did not shift expectations on the timing of an anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year.

The annual revisions published by the Labor Department on Friday also showed the consumer price index increasing slightly more than previously reported in October and November.

Prices excluding the volatile food and energy components were unrevised, after rounding, from October through December. All told, the revisions did not materially alter the path of inflation, which is moderating after surging in 2022.

The revised CPI data had been eagerly awaited by financial markets and economists after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller last month flagged them as among the key data pieces he would be watching as policymakers try to gauge progress in their fight against inflation.

“The revisions were much ado about nothing,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. “This is becoming a trend where a Fed official mentions a data release once and then everyone waits with bated breath only to find out that it’s a bunch of noise.”

The consumer price index rose 0.2% in December instead of 0.3% as reported last month, the revisions of the CPI data published by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed. But data for November was revised up to show the CPI increasing 0.2% rather than 0.1% as previously estimated.

The CPI gained 0.1% in October. Prices were previously reported to have been unchanged in October. The 3-month annualized increase in the CPI was revised up to a 1.9% rate from a 1.8% pace.

The revisions emanated from the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. This routine procedure, which the BLS undertakes every year, covered data from January 2019 through December 2023. The year-on-year data, which is not seasonally adjusted, was unrevised.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI advanced by 0.275% in December, which was rounded up to 0.3%. That was revised down from 0.309%, rounded to 0.3%. The so-called core CPI was revised up to 0.308% in November, rounded to 0.3%.

It was previously reported to have increased 0.285% in November, rounded up to 0.3%. The 3-month increase in the core CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 3.3%.

Core goods prices fell in the first half, but not as steeply as had been previously estimated, while the increase in the cost of services was revised down for November and December. The increase in services excluding rents was revised lower in November and December.

“This should give more support to the Fed that strong growth and jobs are not causing an acceleration in inflationary pressures,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar was steady versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.

UPDATED WEIGHTS

Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank will start cutting interest rates sometime in the first half of the year. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25% to 5.50% range.

The 2023 data was of interest after revisions last year showed inflation a bit warmer in the second half of 2022 than previously thought. Economists saw a minor impact from the CPI revisions on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes data for the fourth quarter, the inflation measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% inflation target.

“On the whole for October-December, the period that will be subject to revision in the next related report, we look for basically no revision to the monthly changes to the core PCE data on net, with the December change revised down by 0.02 percentage point but offsetting upward revisions to the earlier months,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan.

The core PCE price index gained 0.2% on the month in December and rose 2.9% year-on-year.

The BLS also updated spending weights used to calculate the CPI, effective with January’s report due next Tuesday. Housing now has a higher weighting, while transportation’s share was lowered. It will also introduce changes to the methodology used to calculate used cars and trucks prices.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the CPI likely increased 0.2% in January. That would lower the annual increase in prices to 3.0% from 3.4% in December. The core CPI was forecast advancing 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase slowing to 3.8% from 3.9%.

“Since some Fed officials were apparently worried about a repeat of last year, the lack of any meaningful change this year, at the margin at least, supports an earlier May rate cut,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.”

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Stride rejects short seller’s claims, stands by performance

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RESTON, VA – Stride, Inc. (NYSE: LRN), an education and learning company, today refuted allegations made by Fuzzy Panda Research, a self-proclaimed short seller. Stride claims the assertions presented by Fuzzy Panda are misleading and inaccurate, aimed at affecting the company’s stock price negatively.

Stride emphasized its strong fiscal year-end 2024 performance as evidence of its successful strategy execution. The company also highlighted the confidence expressed by shareholders and sell-side analysts in its team and ongoing initiatives to further the company’s success. Stride plans to provide an update on its progress with the release of its first quarter fiscal 2025 financial results on October 22, 2024.

The company’s leadership remains confident in their strategic plan, which they believe will enable learners of all ages to reach their full potential and increase shareholder value. Stride offers a variety of educational services, including K-12 education, career learning, professional skills training, and talent development, reaching learners across the United States and in over 100 countries.

The press release also contained forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. These statements are based on current expectations and involve numerous known and unknown risks.

Stride’s management and Board of Directors stand by the company’s reported performance and strategic direction, despite the claims by Fuzzy Panda Research. This article is based on a press release statement from Stride, Inc.

In other recent news, Stride Inc (NYSE:). has experienced a series of noteworthy developments. The company has reported robust earnings and revenue performance, particularly in its general education segment. This strong performance led BMO Capital Markets to revise Stride’s price target to $82.00 from $79.00, maintaining an Outperform rating on the company’s stock.

Simultaneously, Citi adjusted Stride’s stock rating from Buy to Neutral, despite raising the price target for Stride’s shares to $90 from $77. This change was influenced by Stride’s elevated near-term multiple compared to its educational technology peers and fiscal uncertainties. However, both BMO Capital and Citi maintain a positive view on Stride’s long-term fundamentals and potential for future growth.

In other company news, Stride’s Audit Committee has appointed KPMG LLP as its new auditor for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. This change follows an evaluation process involving several accounting firms and replaces the company’s previous auditor, BDO USA, P.C. The transition occurred without any disagreements or reportable events between Stride and BDO. These are the recent developments making headlines for Stride Inc.

InvestingPro Insights

Stride, Inc.’s (NYSE: LRN) strong financial performance, as highlighted in their refutation of Fuzzy Panda Research’s allegations, is supported by several key metrics from InvestingPro. The company’s revenue growth of 11.03% over the last twelve months and a 10.49% quarterly growth demonstrate its continued expansion in the education sector.

InvestingPro Tips indicate that Stride holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, suggesting a solid financial position. This aligns with the company’s confidence in its strategic direction and ability to execute its plans effectively. Additionally, the tip that Stride has been profitable over the last twelve months corroborates the company’s claims of strong fiscal year-end 2024 performance.

The market seems to recognize Stride’s potential, as evidenced by its impressive 54.16% price return over the past year. However, with a current price of $70.59, the stock is trading at 74.76% of its 52-week high, potentially indicating room for growth. This is further supported by the InvestingPro Fair Value estimate of $88.47, suggesting the stock may be undervalued.

Investors interested in a deeper analysis of Stride, Inc. can access 12 additional InvestingPro Tips, providing a more comprehensive view of the company’s financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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China won’t renounce use of force over Taiwan; Xi visits frontline island

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By Joe Cash and Ben Blanchard

BEIJING/TAIPEI (Reuters) -China will never commit to renouncing the use of force over Taiwan, the government in Beijing said on Wednesday after another bout of war games and a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the scene of a famous defeat for Taiwanese forces.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, staged a day of large-scale drills around the island on Monday that it said were a warning to “separatist acts” following last week’s national day speech by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te.

“We are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and endeavour,” Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told a regular press briefing in Beijing.

“But we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force,” he said.

That is, however, aimed at the interference of “external forces” and the very small number of Taiwan separatists, not the vast majority of Taiwan’s people, Chen said. Taiwan has close though unofficial relations with the United States, a major arms supplier, and its allies.

“No matter how many troops Taiwan has and how many weapons it acquires, and no matter whether external forces intervene or not, if it (Taiwan) dares to take risks, it will lead to its own destruction,” he added.

“Our actions to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity will not cease for a moment.”

Chinese state media reported on Wednesday that President Xi had arrived the previous day on Dongshan island in China’s Fujian province, which faces Taiwan and where in 1953 China beat off an invasion attempt by Taiwan-based military.

The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao Zedong’s communists. No armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed.

Xi was on the island to learn about efforts to revitalise the countryside and the “passing on of red genes and strengthening the protection of cultural heritage”, the official People’s Daily said, referring to the colour of the Communist Party.

He urged officials from Fujian to promote cross-strait cultural exchanges, and “enhance the ethnic, cultural and national identity of Taiwan compatriots,” according to Xinhua news agency.

‘NEGATIVE EFFECT’

Taiwan’s government rejects China’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s people can decide their future.

Speaking to reporters in Taipei earlier on Wednesday, Taiwan National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said China’s drills had backfired given the international condemnation they generated, especially from Washington.

“The Chinese communists’ military exercise has created a negative effect in that it made the international community more supportive of Taiwan,” he said.

Lai, in his Oct. 10 speech, said China has no right to represent Taiwan, but the island was willing to work with the government in Beijing to combat challenges like climate change, striking both a firm and a conciliatory tone which Taiwan officials said was a show of goodwill.

Chen, the Chinese spokesperson, said Lai had stuck to his “stubborn separatist position”.

“There was no goodwill to speak of,” Chen said.

Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but been rebuffed.

China’s military on Monday held open the possibility of more drills around Taiwan depending on the level of “provocation”.

In a report to lawmakers, a copy of which was reviewed by Reuters, Taiwan’s defence ministry said China was trying to legitimise the use of force against Taiwan, to undermine military morale and to “deplete the military’s combat power”.

“In response to the severity of the enemy threat, the military continues to maintain a high degree of vigilance and make every effort to improve training and preparedness,” it said.

© Reuters. Chinese and Taiwanese flags are seen in this illustration, August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

China has over the past five years sent warships and warplanes in the waters and skies around Taiwan on an almost daily basis.

On Wednesday morning, in its daily update of Chinese activities in the previous 24 hours, Taiwan’s defence ministry said it had detected 22 Chinese military aircraft and five navy ships around Taiwan.

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Boeing closes in on $15 billion financing via stock, hybrid bonds

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By Shankar Ramakrishnan, Echo Wang

(Reuters) -Boeing is closing in on a plan to raise around $15 billion with common shares and a mandatory convertible bond as the jet maker bolsters finances worsened by a crippling strike, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The company on Tuesday said in regulatory filings that it could raise as much as $25 billion in stock and debt with its investment-grade credit rating at risk. One of the sources cautioned that a $15 billion sale may not be enough for Boeing (NYSE:) to fix its ongoing crises.

The aerospace giant has been dealing with increased regulatory scrutiny, production curbs and a loss of confidence from customers ever since a door panel blew off a 737 MAX plane in midair in early January. Shares are down more than 40% this year.

It has been burning through cash all year, leading to its Tuesday announcements that it will raise money in the capital markets and that it had also secured a $10 billion credit agreement with major lenders: Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Boeing declined to comment.    

Four investor and banking sources said representatives from those lenders were inquiring about appetite for a combined offering of new shares and a mandatory convertible bond – a hybrid bond that could convert into equity on or before a predetermined date. 

Roughly $10 billion in new shares are being contemplated to be sold by the company along with nearly $5 billion in mandatory convertible bonds, the sources said.

One of the four sources said the deal was scheduled to be priced shortly after Boeing’s Oct. 23 third-quarter earnings report. But another investor source said the company was trying to avoid a raise during the month-old strike which analysts estimate is costing tens of millions of dollars per day.

“The timing of any equity raise is still unclear but market consensus is that it should be done after the labor strike is resolved and earnings provide some visibility of its impact on current and future cash flows,” said Michael Barr, senior research analyst at Neuberger Berman.

While Boeing burned less free cash than expected during the third quarter, the planemaker may have no choice but to act before the end of the strike to protect its investment grade rating, two of the sources said.

Boeing shares have rallied since its refunding announcement, suggesting some investors think the trough has been reached. The stock was up 1.1% at $154.01 on Wednesday afternoon.

One investor source said a three-year mandatory convertible bond paying 7% to 8% in annual coupon that could convert into shares at a premium of 20% over the current share price could attract strong demand.

The funding is expected to soften the blow for existing shareholders whose equity ownership could decline when a company issues new shares. 

A mandatory convertible option was being pursued because such hybrid bonds can be treated as equity capital by rating agencies, which means issuing them would not add to debt to the same extent as selling bonds. They are friendlier to existing shareholders, as stock conversion is a couple of years away and at a premium.

© Reuters. A Boeing logo is seen on a 777-9 aircraft on display during the 54th International Paris Airshow at Le Bourget Airport near Paris, France, June 18, 2023. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

Raising equity capital is the only funding option for debt-laden Boeing which is intent on protecting its investment-grade ratings. 

The top three rating agencies – S&P, Moody’s and Fitch – have warned they will cut Boeing’s ratings to junk if it raised new debt without retiring some $11 billion of debt maturing through Feb. 1, 2026.

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