Bitcoin’s upward momentum has weakened as it approaches the key $111K resistance zone, increasing the risk of another rejection.

However, bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants anticipating a breakout, though a renewed influx of demand is essential for any sustained move beyond the all-time high.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Technicals

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

BTC continues to face challenges in surpassing the key $111K resistance level, its current all-time high, after several weeks of consolidation. Despite multiple attempts, intensified selling pressure and profit-taking at this level have repeatedly halted bullish momentum, resulting in sideways price action.

Recently, the cryptocurrency dipped below the $100K support zone, triggering a liquidity sweep and collecting the fuel for a potential new leg up.

However, the subsequent rebound has stalled around the $107K mark, signaling weakening bullish strength. If demand returns and buying pressure increases, a breakout above the $111K ATH could materialize. Otherwise, another rejection is likely, pushing the price back toward the critical $100K support in the coming sessions.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin has been forming a bullish flag just below its all-time high, a pattern typically signaling continuation of the existing uptrend.

Following a liquidity grab beneath the lower boundary of the flag near $100K, Bitcoin rallied toward the upper boundary at $107K. Despite this upward move, the price has entered a low-volatility phase, indicating a loss of momentum as it approaches resistance.

Should a breakout occur early next week, a new all-time high is likely. Conversely, failure to hold above the current level could trigger another drop, sending the price back toward the lower end of the flag. Until then, price action remains confined, with both bulls and bears waiting for confirmation of the next directional move.

Bitcoin On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a sharp decline in Bitcoin reserves held on centralized exchanges, now at their lowest levels in several years.

This ongoing outflow underscores a growing preference for self-custody and accumulation among investors, a pattern typically associated with reduced sell-side pressure and a long-term bullish outlook. A lower supply of readily available BTC on exchanges often sets the stage for potential supply-side shocks during periods of renewed demand.

That said, while dwindling reserves are historically correlated with major bull runs, they should not be viewed as immediate catalysts for short-term price rallies.

Market conditions and liquidity dynamics still play a vital role, and without a corresponding uptick in demand, price corrections remain a possibility. In summary, the exchange reserve trend highlights strong foundational support for Bitcoin, but near-term price action may still be subject to broader macro or technical headwinds.

Ripple has been trading within a prolonged descending wedge pattern, roughly reaching the upper boundary. The bullish momentum apears to be insufficient with expectation pointing toward continued consoldiation within this pattern, until a valid breakout occurs.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Ripple continues to trade inside a long-standing descending wedge pattern, fluctuating between the $1.6 and $3.3 levels.

After briefly dipping below the psychological $2.0 support, XRP tapped into a liquidity pocket filled with sell-side stop orders, prompting a swift bullish rebound. The price has since recovered and is currently attempting to test the $2.4 resistance zone, coinciding with the wedge’s upper trendline.

However, despite the recent rally, bullish momentum remains weak, suggesting that the current move may lack the strength for an immediate breakout. Unless a decisive surge above $2.4 occurs, XRP is likely to remain range-bound within the wedge.

A confirmed breakout above this structure, however, would signal trend reversal and could open the door for a rally toward the $3 resistance zone.

The 4-Hour Chart

In the lower timeframe, XRP is forming a descending channel structure that resembles a potential bullish flag – a continuation pattern often following an uptrend.

The price recently bounced off the channel’s lower boundary and rallied above the midline before pulling back to retest it, an action that suggests increased buyer interest and accumulation at the current levels.

Following this healthy retest, XRP has surged once again and is now approaching the upper boundary around $2.2. Should the price manage to break through this resistance, it would validate the bullish continuation pattern and likely drive XRP higher toward the $2.4 region, where stronger resistance awaits.

This year US corporations have begun stockpiling Bitcoin treasuries in earnest as the race for 21 million BTC tokens continues. This creates enormous structural support for market prices. But is it ideal?

After setting a historic record high around $109,000 on Jan. 21, Bitcoin prices retraced back to $82,000 by mid-April. After that they skyrocketed to another record around $112,000 in May.

Supporting these sea level changes in Bitcoin’s global capitalization is a spree of corporate BTC buys in Q1 and Q2 that signal a paradigm shift in the demand for these highly valued cryptographic hash tokens.

Is it all good news for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?

Here is why it may be good:

1. Institutional Validation

Bitcoin price news headlines and searches for cryptocurrency on Google periodically erupt along with bull runs on the currency. Still, not everyone is sure if it is a good idea to invest.

Many investing and financial authorities like NYU Econ. Professor Nouriel Roubini and EuroPac Chief Peter Schiff are skeptical or highly critical of Bitcoin.

It ROIs are in another league entirely compared to US stocks and private placement investments by accredited investors and high net worth individuals. While that attracts many investors, others don’t understand how it is possible or sustainable.

Institutional validation for Bitcoin investing signals signals to investors with a similar view of the world that BTC markets are really on to something. If corporations are hoarding Bitcoin then it’s probably real and safe.

When public companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, or Square buy Bitcoin, it legitimizes Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Bitcoin is not just a speculative tool for them, but a long-term store of value.

2. Reduced Sell Pressure

In addition to creating a bandwagon effect and fear of missing out among new entrants to crypto markets, the treasury race is locking up supplies and reducing sell pressure.

Basic supply and demand economics dictates this creates price support for the underlying good or commodity. Bitcoin’s brutally deflationary design boosts this effect on token prices.

Corporate treasuries typically buy to hold long-term, not trade. For Bitcoin, Strategy and others have indicated they have no plans to ever sell their holdings.

3. Onboarding Traditional Finance

Corporate adoption creates incentives for developers to build bridges from Bitcoin to TradFi (traditional finance). Because Bitcoin is maintained by software on an open peer network, the field is wide open for app development.

The TradFi layer is excited by the advantages of automating financial services exemplified by Bitcoin’s success. This encourages blockchain developers to build more institutional tools (e.g., ETFs, custody, derivatives), making it easier for others to follow.

Institutional finance has shown some interest in building an Ethereum app layer that offers automated financial services backed by Bitcoin layer tokens.

While this sector is still in its early stages, if it takes off, BTC tokens may be undervalued at current record market prices near historical record highs.

4. Network Effect Growth

In general system theory, network effects describe the growth of ordered phenomena in an organized system along the lines of positive feedback loops.

Meanwhile, in industrial business theory the concept denotes the simple, but powerful tendency of a market, platform, good, or service to increase in value as more participants begin to use it.

Naturally, the more high-profile holders of Bitcoin there are, the more attention and trust Bitcoin gets.

When large, established corporations regularly traded on Wall Street enter the fray, there is more safety and value in numbers.

Bitcoin investment strategist Lyn Alden says that Bitcoin’s network effects support its long term price growth because:

• It resolves hard forks through market capitalism
• Developers build new layers like Lightning Network
• mega companies like Fidelity now serve customer demand with BTC custody services

5. Defensive Hedge Narrative

Corporation are conservative with their finances because they have to make payroll and please investors. If they’re investing in Bitcoin by the half a billion dollars’ worth at a time like GameStop did in May, then it must be a good macro hedge for more conservative investors.

Companies taking a defensive financial posture using BTC reinforces Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat debasement, inflation, and systemic risk. Some leaders in corporate America are beginning to treating it like “digital gold” — a modern reserve asset.

Furthermore, Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) recently said that she has spoken with Defense Department generals who say they agree Bitcoin is critically important as a national strategic advantage for national security.

6. FOMO Effect on Other Institutions

Meanwhile, as more companies add BTC, it pressures others to consider it or risk falling behind (especially in financial returns or treasury innovation).

At some point the network effect of corporate Bitcoin stockpiles could snowball so far that Wall Street companies must hold some cryptocurrency treasuries to avoid a systemic shortfall against other corporate balance sheets.

This is what early Bitcoin promoter Andreas Antonopoulos once referred to in an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience as “infrastructure inversion.” He argued it would be an inevitable feature of Bitcoin’s success if the crypto were to ever become mainstream.

But here is why corporate BTC treasuries may be bad for crypto markets:

1. Centralization of Holdings

As corporations amass large BTC holdings, power and influence concentrate among a few key treasuries like those at Strategy and BlackRock, to back its Bitcoin ETF issuance.

That goes against Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos if a few entities control major stakes.

While, theoretically, it can’t pose a risk to the system, because ownership is not correlated to network validation and security (hashrate is), it can still have a negative effect. Imagine an entity controlling 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply being forced to start liquidating its holdings.

This is especially troublesome if the entity is a centralized corporation, the operation and control of which, at best, fall within a board of directors or, at worst, within a certain executive.

Moreover, centralization of holdings could deter investors from coming in because of the above concerns alone.

2. Speculative Overreach

In addition to over-centralization there’s the risk of speculative overreach. Companies may be buying to chase hype rather than for sound financial strategy.

Bitcoin bubbles are already bad. But the corporate treasury race could make the ride bumpier for smaller investors by causing more bubbles, steeper rides up, and more drastic corrections.

That could lead to more painful liquidations or bankruptcies in serious market downturns, damaging Bitcoin’s image and reputation with investors. In the crypto winter of 2022, the weakest link in the chain was corporations that held Bitcoin like Celsius, FTX, and others.

3. Price Instability Risk

Bitcoin ownership stratification and choppier waters could make its price more volatile.

For example, large corporate holders may be apt to sell massive amounts of BTC during crises just as they have snapped it up during this rally. That could crash the market due to the size of their positions.

This adds systemic volatility to an already volatile asset. Market participants always have to balance in the outlook for their forward valuations the possibility that a large ship in harbor could set sail.

4. Distorted Use Case

Bitcoin may become seen primarily as a corporate hedge or balance sheet gimmick, not as usable money. This is an ongoing debate among the online community of crypto enthusiasts.

Some like Strategy’s Michael Saylor say Bitcoin’s real role in the global financial ecosystem has emerged as an automated and completely democratic platform for final settlement in scarce digital tokens with a bearer instrument quality.

Others say this distracts from Bitcoin’s original mission of being a decentralized peer-to-peer currency. There is no consumer demand for Bitcoin this way as a daily spender, only financial and investment demand.