Forex
Dollar gains as jobless claims affirm resilient US labor market
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
By Herbert Lash and Samuel Indyk
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar rose on Thursday after data on unemployment benefits again pointed to a resilient U.S. labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s message that interest rates are unlikely to be cut in the near term.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, the latest sign of labor market strength despite a recent spike in layoffs.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended Feb. 3, the Labor Department said, less than the 220,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
The initial claims data still points to a robust U.S. labor market that has kept the dollar strong, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and interest rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.
“The problem here is that we continue to get positive surprises in the U.S. and we’re not getting enough positive surprises in the rest of the world, and certainly not in China,” he said.
“If the dollar is going to weaken, we’re going to need to see some attenuation of the robustness in the U.S. data and some improvement in the data in Europe and China,” he said. “When’s that going to happen? Very, very hard to say.”
The next major scheduled U.S. data release is January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of inflation on Feb. 13.
Expectations for U.S. central bank rate cuts by year end have been slashed to 115 basis points (bps) from 140 bps just before the release of last Friday’s blowout jobs report, trading in Fed funds futures show.
The likelihood of a rate cut in March slipped one-half percentage point from Wednesday to 18.5%, but was about half expectations of 36.5% a week ago, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
The was last up 0.14% at 104.16, after hitting 104.43 following the initial claims report. The euro rebounded from a low of 1.074, gaining 0.02% to $1.0773.
Higher Treasury yields also have bolstered the dollar, particularly against lower-yielding currencies, such as the yen.
The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 3.4 basis points to 4.456% and the 10-year yield was up 7 basis points at 4.168%.
The yen was down about 0.82% versus the greenback at 149.380. It slipped to 149.46 after the initial claims data, its weakest level since Nov. 27.
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said overnight that the central bank was unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively, even after exiting negative interest rates.
Sterling was down 0.11% at $1.2613.
The yuan held steady despite data that showed China’s consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years in January.
CPI fell 0.8% from a year earlier, but rose 0.3% month-on-month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% fall year-on-year and a 0.4% gain month-on-month.
The offshore Chinese yuan rose 0.05% to $7.2159 per dollar, while the rose 0.03% to $7.1965.
rose 2.73% to $45,396.44, the first time it has risen above $45,000 since Jan. 12.
Investing.com – The US dollar has gained more ground as the US presidential election draws near, UBS noted, with the market seeing rising odds of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
A new USD-positive over the past week has been media reports of somewhat better outlook for Donald Trump in the latest polls, as outcomes that allow for policies such as more aggressive tariffs are viewed as more USD positive.
“Higher odds of a Trump presidency are likely to be associated with a stronger USD near term,” said analysts at UBS, in a note dated Oct. 16.
Where does this leave us now with our USD views?
Our expected ranges between Sep–Dec 2024 incorporated the possibility of a material USD rebound between now and year end, even if our year-end forecasts see a modestly lower USD from current levels.
Last week, with an eye to our year end forecast, we entered a long call reverse knockout, but we are not willing to implement a similar trade yet for and .
The spot is still far enough from our range extremes and high JPY implied volatility and negative carry make long JPY positions unattractive so close to US elections.
Turning to this week’s ECB meeting, the market is very confident that another 25bp rate cut will be delivered and we do not have a strong reason to disagree.
Market expectations are very muted for any form of surprise, and risk reversal skews bid again for EUR puts point to a market that is already primed for the risk of EUR softness.
With market pricing in line with our economists’ terminal rate expectations, we see EUR/USD as more exposed to US developments near-term, leaving us reluctant to fade recent softness on ECB reasons alone.
At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0894, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 149.34 and AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6685.
Investing.com – The European Central Bank holds its latest policy-setting meeting later this week, and Citigroup advises selling any rallies in the euro around this key event.
Markets are pricing in around 49 basis points of easing over the remaining two ECB meetings this year, which could limit dovish repricing around Thursday’s event, according to analysts at Citi, in a note dated Oct. 15.
“We see scope for a tactical bounce in EUR around this Thursday’s ECB meeting, which we like fading into November as US election risk premium materializes,” Citi said.
That said, “we like fading any subsequent rallies in EUR as we approach November and US election risk premium gets better priced.”
There is some evidence of this unfolding, the bank added, as EUR looks undervalued on its short-term fair value model and as Citi’s FX Positioning data suggests adding to EUR shorts.
“But our broader FX election basket still screens as undervalued relative to Trump betting markets, and we remain short EURUSD in both spot and options,” says Citi. “We would look to sell any retest of the 1.10 double top neckline — any break above there risks a move towards our adjusted stop of 1.1050, but if that resistance holds, we have higher conviction of a move towards our (and the double top) target of 1.08, with potential overshoot towards 1.07.”
At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), traded largely flat at 1.0892, almost 2% lower over the last month.
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher Wednesday, trading near two-month peaks on expectations of modest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while sterling slumped after benign inflation data.
At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 103.180, remaining close to Monday’s two-month peak.
Dollar helped by trimmed rate cut expectations
Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction.
Adding to these expectations were comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President on Tuesday, who said he had penciled in just one more interest rate reduction of 25 basis points this year when he updated his projections for last month’s U.S. central bank meeting.
Most market participants see two more cuts this year, totaling 50 bps, and traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
Sterling slumps after inflation release
In Europe, slumped 0.5% to 1.3003, after data showed British inflation fell more than expected in September, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
The UK’s fell to 1.7% on an annual basis, below the forecast 1.9% and the 2.2% recorded a month earlier.
This was the first time it had fallen below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021, and added to data seen earlier in the week that showed British pay grew at its slowest pace in more than two years.
“The data is unequivocally dovish for the Bank of England and paves the way for rate cuts at the two remaining meetings this year (November and December),” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“Given the comments by Governor Andrew Bailey earlier this month suggesting the BoE could increase the pace of easing, markets may be tempted to price in some chance of a 50bp rate cut in November.”
traded 0.1% lower to 1.0882, ahead of Thursday’s policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank.
The has already lowered rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate this week is almost fully priced in by financial markets.
“EUR/USD is predominantly driven by external factors. The substantial drop in oil prices has narrowed the scope for a further drop based on market factors, but we continue to suspect that pre-US election positioning should favor a weaker EUR/USD,” said ING.
Yuan nurses weekly losses
fell slightly to 7.1179, with the yuan nursing losses this week as sentiment soured over the country’s plans for more stimulus.
China’s Ministry of Finance said it will enact a slew of fiscal measures to boost growth, but did not specify the timing or size of the planned measures, spurring uncertainty over its effectiveness.
rose 0.2% to 149.43, with the pair climbing closer to the 150 resistance level.
data due later this week is expected to offer more cues on the Bank of Japan’s plans to hike rates further.
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