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Analysis-Europe, Africa oil markets tighten, lending support to futures

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Analysis-Europe, Africa oil markets tighten, lending support to futures
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil processing facilities of an PCK oil refinery in Schwedt, Germany October 1, 2022. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse/File Photo

By Alex Lawler, Natalie Grover and Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – Red Sea shipping delays and OPEC+ supply cuts are tightening physical oil markets in Europe and Africa as well as the market structure, lending further support to oil futures prices, according to traders, LSEG data and analysts.

A sustained rise in crude prices would lift energy, transportation and manufacturing costs and threaten to unwind some of the recent falls in global inflation, just as major central banks are expected to begin cutting interest rates.

On Thursday, the benchmark Brent crude futures market structure hit its most bullish since October. The premium of the first-month contract to the six-month contract reached $4.34 a barrel. This structure, called backwardation, indicates a perception of tight prompt supply.

“It looks like there has been a pick-up in (tanker) diversions, which is making the crude balance tighter,” said FGE analyst James Davis. Crude demand is high because of strong refining margins, despite refinery maintenance, he added.

More tankers are avoiding the Red Sea since Yemen’s Houthis began drone and missile attacks against shipping in mid-November, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians as Israel wages war on Hamas.

January average refining margins for diesel and gasoline in Europe rose to multi-month highs of $34.3 and $11.6 a barrel, respectively, Reuters calculations show.

is also in backwardation, with the strength of Brent and WTI taking the trading community by surprise after predictions that supply would outpace demand at the start of the year.  

The stronger market is a bonus for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+. The group has been cutting supply for the past two years but has often struggled to achieve prices above $80 per barrel – the minimum most producers need to balance their budgets.

Brent traded at almost $84 a barrel on Thursday and has risen 9% this year.

OPEC+ leaders have said backwardation is a positive market trend because it discourages traders from holding inventory to resell at a premium later, with low stocks also creating bullish market sentiment.

The world’s onshore crude inventories sit at 4.4 billion barrels, their lowest level since the start of 2017 when intelligence firm Kpler began tracking the data, JPMorgan said in a report.

“The physical sweet crude market is very tight,” said Black Gold Investors CEO Gary Ross, using a term for low-sulphur crude. Libyan outages, a U.S. cold snap that cut output and payment issues for some Russian supplies are among the reasons, he said.

‘FIRMER FOOTING’

OPEC+ sources have said the group will decide in early March whether to extend oil-output cuts into the second quarter of the year or begin returning supply to the market.

“The market has found a firmer footing with Brent trading above $80 for a while now, supported by what looks like a better-than-expected demand outlook together with the…tanker diversions keeping millions of barrels at sea for longer,” said Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy.

“OPEC+ I’m sure will be very pleased.”

In the North Sea crude market, the differential of Forties crude to benchmark dated Brent has reached the highest since late November and the prices of some other grades considered local alternatives to Middle East crude have soared.

In October, about 1.07 million bpd of Middle Eastern crude came to Europe, Kpler data showed, with volumes falling in the following months amid the Red Sea attacks and expected to average about 606,000 bpd in February.

“Delays to shipments from East of Suez…are making crude closer to home more attractive,” a European crude trader said. “The offers for West Africa and North Sea crude reflect that.”

“Refining margins in Europe for Angolan crude are very favourable and Nigeria is selling cargoes faster than it has for months.”

Nigerian Forcados crude was offered this week at dated Brent plus $6.00 a barrel, the highest since October LSEG data showed. Nigerian grades Qua Iboe and Bonny Light have firmed to dated plus $3.80 and $3.00, respectively.

In Asia, Middle East cash crude differentials have stayed pretty stable month on month, suggesting Europe and African crude is seeing the bulk of the strength.

U.S. crude has been mixed. On the light side, there has been some tightness due to a cold snap last month hitting Permian production, while March loadings to Asia are set to pick up after a weak January and February.

An unplanned outage at BP (NYSE:)’s Whiting refinery has pushed some heavy Canadian crude into the Cushing storage hub and so there is currently little tightness.

Commodities

Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.

inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.

The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.

Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook

Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. 

Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook. 

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.

Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals

The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

The  rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.

Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors

Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.

Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories

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Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.

At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.

Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.

Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China. 

China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices. 

China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.

To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.

US crude inventories shrink- API

US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.

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Commodities

Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions

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Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.

rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains. 

The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.

Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.

US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high

The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook

Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.

Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)  rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.

Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.

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