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These Indicators Are Signaling a Possible Correction in BTC’s Price: CryptoQuant

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Some on-chain indicators are flashing signs that Bitcoin (BTC) may be overheating following its rally to the $64,000 price mark, indicating a significant correction could occur soon.

According to a weekly report from market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, the rising traders’ unrealized profit margin and the high cost of opening new long positions in perpetual futures markets suggest the emergence of a pause or correction in BTC’s price.

BTC’s Remarkable Rally

Since the beginning of this week, the bulls have taken charge of the market and driven BTC up by more than 25%, pushing the digital asset to levels not seen since November 2021. Bitcoin has rallied from under $52,000, crossed $60,000, and was trading at $62,600 at writing time after a pullback from $64,000.

CryptoQuant analysts say the price increase is driven by high BTC demand from U.S. investors, evident in a rise in the Coinbase premium index to 0.13%, the highest since mid-February.

The high demand for BTC is coming from larger entities, whose holdings have increased to 3.975 million BTC, a level last seen in July 2022. The current holdings of such investors, which are entities who have accumulated 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, represent a significant growth from December 2022 lows of 3.694 million BTC.

Additionally, fresh capital inflow into the Bitcoin market, measured by the short-term holder realized capitalization, has increased by 10% from the 25% recorded in October 2023. The fresh inflows currently represent 35% of the total money invested in the network.

A Possible Correction

While demand for BTC soars, the asset is prone to correction any moment from now. BTC’s price has surpassed $56,000, a previously identified short-term target based on network activity valuation. The price represents the red Metcalfe Price Valuation Band, which served as a resistance level in April and November 2021 and April 2022. Analysts said a correction could occur around the price.

On top of that, opening new long positions in the perpetual futures markets has become expensive, and traders’ unrealized profit margin is at 32%, a few inches away from 40%, which is known to trigger a price correction.

Meanwhile, the Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability metric suggests that BTC’s price is not overheated as miners are still extremely underpaid, although at a rate lower than in early January when BTC was worth $38,000.

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Cryptocurrency

US Entities’ Bitcoin Holdings Reach Massive Record: Details

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The US entities’ share of global Bitcoin reserves has reached an all-time high amidst increasing confidence in the asset class. The figure is now 65% higher than non-US entities, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

This milestone is based on an analysis of Bitcoin holdings by identifiable US entities – including miners, MicroStrategy (MSTR), ETFs, exchanges, and government accounts – compared to known offshore counterparts.

Institutional Demand Pushes US Bitcoin Reserve Ratio to ATH

As per the infographic shared by the exec, the ratio of US to non-US Bitcoin reserves has seen a sharp increase as it rose from 1.24 in September 2024 to 1.66 by December 16 and maintained a level of 1.65 as of January 6, 2025. This shift follows a period in 2023 when offshore holdings predominated while Bitcoin traded under $30,000.

The recent surge in US-based Bitcoin reserves aligns with key events. This includes pro-crypto Donald Trump’s re-election and his proposal to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, which coincided with the leading crypto asset’s surge to an all-time high above $108,000.

Institutional interest has also surged, as evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing record inflows and trading volumes alongside MicroStrategy’s ongoing accumulation.

The latter currently holds 447,470 BTC after its latest purchase of 1,070 BTC. The company also announced plans to raise $42 billion over three years to expand its Bitcoin portfolio.

Several companies have followed MicroStrategy’s footsteps. Despite the minor slump in the market, small entities in the country remained committed to Bitcoin. For instance, this week, Thumzup Media Corporation, known for its expertise in social media branding and marketing, purchased 9.783 BTC for approximately $1 million.

The company entered the Bitcoin market for the first time in November 2024, shortly after Trump’s election win. During the same period, Solidion Technology, specializing in battery materials, revealed its intention to invest a portion of its cash reserves in Bitcoin. Genius Group quickly followed, rolling out a Bitcoin-focused initiative and committing $120 million to the digital asset.

Global Governments and Corporations Ramp Up Interest

These developments have sparked interest among non-US entities and governments in building their own strategic Bitcoin reserves. The most prominent example of this is the Japanese venture capital fund Metaplanet, which has set a target of 10,000 BTC as part of its 2025 vision.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich recently even predicted a global rush for BTC reserves if Trump establishes a US strategic Bitcoin reserve. The exec said that Japan and other Asian countries would likely follow the US lead, viewing Bitcoin as a strategic national asset.

He highlighted growing corporate and governmental interest in BTC and added that such trends with principles in “The Bitcoin Standard.” Gerovich also noted that Trump’s reserve strategy could also inspire third-world countries to adopt Bitcoin to stabilize their currencies.

Governments around the world are already considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl, for one, proposed acquiring Bitcoin for diversification in a bid to join the likes of Switzerland, Germany, and Hong Kong in exploring crypto reserves.

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These Altcoins Bleed Out as Bitcoin (BTC) Slips Below $93K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin just doesn’t seem to be able to catch a break, as the asset slipped below $93,000 on a couple of occasions in the past 12 hours or so.

Many altcoins are also in dire situations, with notable price losses from the likes of DOGE, ADA, AVAX, LINK, and others.

BTC’s Troubles Keep Mounting

It was just about 48 hours ago when the primary cryptocurrency was charting new yearly peaks. Recall that the asset had climbed above $102,000 after a relatively quiet weekend amid growing ETF inflows, but then the landscape changed after the US announced the latest jobs report.

In a matter of minutes, the cryptocurrency plunged from six-digit territory to under $97,000 on Tuesday afternoon. The situation worsened on Wednesday as the bears kept pushing BTC south, which culminated in a price drop to $92,500 (on Bitstamp). After that weekly low, bitcoin bounced off and touched $95,000, but that was short-lived as the ETF flows turned negative, with nearly $600 million in the red.

As the Thursday Asian trading session progressed, BTC dropped once again to under $93,000. Although it sits just above that line now, the asset has lost nearly ten grand since Tuesday morning.

Its market cap has plummeted below $1.850 trillion but its dominance over the alts stands tall above 54% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 9.1.2025. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 9.1.2025. Source: TradingView

ADA Down 8.5%

The altcoins are in no better shape, especially Cardano’s native token. ADA has plunged by more than 8% in the past 24 hours and has lost the $1 mark. DOGE, AVAX, LINK, and XLM are the other massive losers within the same time frame, with declines of up to 7%.

Nevertheless, the biggest and most painful decreases are evident from AI16Z and WIF. Both assets have tumbled by double digits (19% and $14%, respectively) to $1.47 and $1.62.

The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has lost over $350 billion in two days and is down to $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

Top Cardano (ADA) Price Forecasts: Further Decline or a Rise to a New ATH?

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TL;DR

  • Analysts highlight a potential breakout for ADA, supported by bullish chart patterns and upcoming developments for Cardano.
  • However, recent whale sales of millions of tokens could negatively affect the price.

The Bullish Scenario

Despite the solid start to the year, the past few days have not been kind to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has plummeted by around 9% on a 48-hour scale, while numerous altcoins have suffered even more substantial declines. 

Cardano’s ADA is one of those, with its valuation dumping by 20% since January 7. Currently, it trades at around $0.91 (per CoinGecko’s data), while its market capitalization fell well below $35 billion.

The popular X user Dan Gambardello, though, remains an optimist. Recently, he claimed that ADA has “one of the most bullish weekly pattern setups in crypto,” which represents an “inverse head and shoulders with upward sloping neckline.” Gambradello assumed that a breakout to the upside could result in a price rally to as high as $7.

Altcoin Daily chipped in, too. At the start of the year, they outlined bullish predictions about multiple cryptocurrencies, envisioning ADA’s valuation to hit $6.45 sometime in 2025. It is worth mentioning that the analyst said this target should not be taken for granted, suggesting that “any altcoin can theoretically go to zero at any time. They also warned people to invest only as much as they are ready to lose.

Meanwhile, Cardano is set to undergo some essential developments in the next 12 months that could trigger upward pressure on the price of the native token. Those willing to check what’s on the agenda can take a look at our dedicated video below:

How About a Further Pullback?

Contrary to the aforementioned bullish predictions, some factors signal that ADA could continue plunging in the near future. Earlier this week, the X user Ali Martinez revealed that whales have sold over 70 million tokens in the span of 48 hours.

Such actions from large investors increase the circulating supply of ADA and could be followed by a price decline (assuming demand doesn’t catch up with the pace). Additionally, the move may discourage smaller players and trigger a more substantial selling spree. 

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