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Bitcoin HODLers Are Finally Starting To Take Profit: Glassnode

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Bitcoin (BTC)’s meteoric rise over the past few months has many long-term holders starting to cash out their positions, on-chain data suggests.

In a research newsletter published on Tuesday, Glassnode noted that long-term investors have already distributed 480,000 BTC since December 2023, from which time BTC has appreciated 45%.

Bitcoin’s Distribution Phase

According to lead Glassnode analyst James Check, roughly half of the old coins to started changing in the last three months came from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

As the largest Bitcoin fund in the world, Grayscale has suffered nothing but outflows since converting into a Bitcoin spot ETF on January 11, dumping 202,873 BTC on the market.

Overall, long-term holders are distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month. By comparison, HODLers sold BTC at a rate of 319,000 BTC per month and 836,000 BTC per month during major market expansions in mid-2019 and early 2021, respectively.

“Like clockwork, long-term #Bitcoin holders have started their ATH distribution,” wrote Check in a post to X on Monday. “it goes to show that there are HODLers who can and do read the market very well.”

By Glassnode’s terms, a HODLer is anyone who’s held BTC in one wallet for over 155 days. On-chain data shows that the average cost basis for this cohort’s holdings is $20,700. In other words, at BTC’s current price of $64,700, they’re sitting on a ~225% profit.

In its Tuesday report, Glassnode explained:

“Based on the current value, these investors are approaching their Euphoria state with an elevated incentive to spend and take profits. Historically, this cohort ramps up their spending as new market ATHs are reached, with distribution accelerating until they help form the cycle macro top.”

Bitcoin’s Early All-Time High

Bitcoin briefly tapped a new all-time high on Tuesday at $69,200, before quickly descending back to $64,000 amid over $700 million in crypto market liquidations.

Despite the pullback, Glassnode said that BTC new demand may be enough to offset sell pressure from old investors for many months to come, based on historical trends.

Specifically, the average long-term holder has been net-selling BTC over the previous 8 to 15-day period for the past 42 days, while prior bull markets sustained such sell pressure for between 123 and 225 days.

“It may suggest that demand inflows could offset LTH spending for several months ahead, should history be any guide,” wrote Glassnode.

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2 Bullish and 2 Bearish Shiba Inu Signals as the SHIB Price Consolidates

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TL;DR

  • Shiba Inu’s spike in large transactions and increase of investors currently in profit suggest the meme coin could be headed for further gains in the near future.
  • On the other hand, slight drop in network growth and a 50% decline in SHIB’s burn rate indicate potential challenges ahead for price momentum.

Showing Mixed Signals

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been rallying in the past week, witnessing a price jump of around 9% for that period. However, it stalled its progress in the past few days and even flashed red on a daily scale. Currently, it trades at around $0.00001441 (per CoinGecko’s data).

SHIB Price
SHIB Price, Source: CoinGecko

There are two factors hinting that the meme coin may soon head north again. The first is the spike of large SHIB transactions volume (where each transaction exceeds $100,000). According to IntoTheBlock, the figure surpassed $20 million in the past 24 hours, representing a 170% increase compared to the amount observed on September 23.

Such large transactions often indicate the involvement of whales. Increased activity from those investors with significant holdings can be seen as a positive sign from smaller players and encourage them to enter the ecosystem, hence injecting fresh capital.

The next bullish sign is the “In the Money” metric, which is up 4.3%. The technical analysis tool measures the change in the number of SHIB investors currently sitting on paper profits. As of now, 48% of all Shiba Inu investors are in the green, while 51% are underwater. Only 1% of those exposed to the meme coin are break-even.

Conversely, two bearish elements suggest that SHIB’s valuation might be poised for a correction. For instance, Net Network Growth (a momentum signal that gives “a pulse of the true growth of the token’s underlying network”) is down 0.17%.

Shiba Inu’s burning mechanism is also on a downtrend. The burn rate has fallen by almost 50% in the past 24 hours, resulting in less than 8 million tokens sent to a null address.

The program’s ultimate goal is to reduce the huge circulating supply of SHIB and thus propel a price increase (assuming demand keeps its levels or rises). Currently, there are over 583 trillion tokens in circulation, with 410 trillion already destroyed over the past few years.

SHIB Predictions

Some analysts are quite optimistic about Shiba Inu’s future, envisioning somewhat wild targets. JAVON MARKS recently argued that the asset’s uptrend witnessed after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates could be the starting point for a rally to as high as $0.000081.

Another X user, using the handle pepa, was even more bullish, claiming SHIB might erase two zeroes from its valuation in the near future based on the formation of a specific triangular shape on the price chart.

It’s important to note that for this kind of massive surge to happen, the market capitalization of the meme coin would need to hit around $800 billion.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is the only cryptocurrency that exceeds that level, making this prediction very improbable.

 

 

 

 

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This Is Why Bitcoin Surged Above $64K, Can it Go Higher? (Bitfinex)

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Last week, the Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate by 50 basic points, allowing increased cash flow in the United States. Two days after the rate reduction, bitcoin’s price surged past $64,000, reigniting confidence in the market.

According to Bitfinex’s latest weekly report, the jump in BTC price was influenced by increased activities within the futures and perpetual markets rather than the spot market.

What Triggered Bitcoin’s Latest Price Surge?

The report noted that bitcoin’s open interest drove the latest surge instead of spot trading, implying that the futures and perpetual markets saw the most investor engagement. The exchange’s analysts added that the crypto asset’s open interest “outpaced the price gains of BTC itself.”

According to on-chain data from the blockchain analytics platform Coinglass, bitcoin’s open interest recently attained $34.9 billion, the highest seen since early August.

Bitfinex analysts added that an increased engagement with the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could drive the leading cryptocurrency to reclaim prices closer to its peak value of $73,800. Over $397.2 million flowed into the U.S.-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past week, proving that BTC price may follow in the uptrend.

The market report explained that the leading crypto asset could unlock the $65,200 price resistance from late August if this trend of Bitcoin ETF inflows continues.

“Should Bitcoin breach the key resistance levels from late August, this could propel the asset towards new highs, coinciding with the end of summer’s low liquidity. However, without sustained spot buying, consolidation or a partial correction seems the most likely scenario,” the analysts said.

Altcoins See Price Increases

Aside from bitcoin, other crypto assets have seen considerable increment within the past month. Bitfinex referenced SUI and AAVE as altcoins that unlocked a 100% price increase in August and September.

On the other hand, altcoins that do not belong to the top 10 coins by market capitalization have not increased, as revealed in an index showing the data. Still, open interest in these assets has soared from $10.74 billion in August to $11.48 billion.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Eyes $64K, NEAR Protocol (NEAR) Soars 20% in 2 Days (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price tumbled below $63,000 yesterday, but the bulls seem back in control as they have pushed the asset toward $64,000 once again.

Most larger-cap altcoins are sluggish on a daily scale, aside from ADA, which has jumped by over 4%, and DOT, which has added just under 4%.

BTC Aims at $64K

After the slow start to the previous week, when it dropped to $57,600, bitcoin experienced a true rollercoaster by the end of the five-day trading period that ended on Friday, especially during and after the Wednesday FOMC meeting, in which the US Fed announced a 0.5% reduction in the key interest rates.

BTC recorded several substantial price moves before it headed north decisively. In just a few days, it peaked above $64,000 before it lost some ground during the weekend and remained around $63,000.

The bulls went at it again on Monday morning and drove the asset to its highest price level in over four weeks of $64,800. However, it failed to conquer that level and the subsequent rejection pushed it south to under $63,000 yesterday.

Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has gained around a grand since then and is now close to $64,000. Its market cap has neared $1.260 trillion on CG but its dominance over the alts is just shy of 54%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 24.09.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 24.09.2024. Source: TradingView

NEAR Sees Double-Digit Gains

Binance Coin, Solana, and Cardano have emerged as the top performers from the larger-cap alts today. BNB has reclaimed the $600 level after a 2.6% daily increase, SOL is close to $150 after gaining 3%, while ADA has soared by 5% and stands at $0.36.

Although the rest of the larger caps are also in the green, their gains are a lot more modest. NEAR Protocol’s native token has jumped by 8% on a daily scale and 20% since Sunday and now trades above $5.2.

Other impressive gainers from the top 100 alts include AR (16%), TIA (15%), WIF (11%), LDO (9%), ICP (9%), and STX (9%).

The total crypto market cap has added another $20 billion overnight and is at $2.340 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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