Connect with us
  • tg

Forex

Egyptian pound steadies after devaluation, IMF deal

letizo News

Published

on

Egyptian pound steadies after devaluation, IMF deal
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People wait on line to withdraw money from ATM machines at Banque Misr in Cairo, Egypt, March 6, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo

By Nafisa Eltahir

CAIRO (Reuters) -Egyptian officials said they expected more inflows and the pound held steady on Thursday, a day after the central bank announced a shift to a more flexible exchange rate and let the currency plunge as Egypt secured an expanded $8 billion IMF programme.

The pound hovered just under 49.5 to the dollar, similar to the price near closing on Wednesday, LSEG data showed. Before Wednesday’s de-facto devaluation, steep interest rate hike, the central bank had held the currency for about a year at just under 31 pounds to the dollar.

A more flexible exchange rate, long a key demand from the International Monetary Fund, is seen as crucial for restoring investor confidence in an economy hobbled for the last two years by a foreign currency shortage.

In one sign of improved sentiment, foreign investors resumed purchases of Egyptian treasury bills after a long absence, three bankers said.

The shortage has curbed local business activity and led to backlogs at ports and delays in the government’s payments for commodities including wheat.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Egypt was planning on big deals to ensure liquidity and would work with merchants to stabilise prices and prioritise foreign currency access for basic commodity importers as the currency shift takes effect.

Egypt expected a total of $20 billion from multilateral and other partners including the IMF, the World Bank and the European Union, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said.

The government was also committed to a programme to sell state assets and encourage private sector investment.

“We are expecting to execute several deals in the various strategic sectors for an amount close to $3.5 billion,” Maait told the American Chamber of Commerce in Cairo. “We are expecting more financing to come through over the short term.”

Egypt’s international bonds, which had soared on Wednesday before falling back, declined further on Thursday, with the 2033 note down 1.62 cents on the dollar at 81.81 cents, Tradeweb data showed.

Overall, Egypt’s sovereign bond prices were trading at early March levels.

‘ENOUGH AND MORE’

Egypt has promised a move to a more flexible exchange rate system in the past, only to resume holding the currency at a fixed rate, while much of the economy depended on a black market rate that fell as low as 70 pounds.

Central bank Governor Hassan Abdalla described the black market trading as a “disease” that reflected a lack of trust in the financial system.

“Thankfully, I can stand here today and say we have enough to fulfil our obligations and more,” he told reporters at a rare press conference late on Wednesday.

The central bank would still have the ability to intervene, as in other countries, in the case of excess volatility, Abdalla said.

The IMF, which agreed to add $5 billion to its existing $3 billion loan programme with Egypt, has said it is looking for a sustainable and unified exchange rate determined by the market.

Under the programme, Egypt has committed to undertake structural reforms to stabilise prices, manage the debt burden and encourage private-sector growth.

Abdalla said that following a 600 basis point hike on Wednesday, Egyptian interest rates, long among the highest globally, would now be on a “downward track.”

‘IRON FIST’

Two weeks ago, Egypt signed an investment deal with Emirati sovereign fund ADQ that includes $24 billion payment for rights to develop a prime stretch of Mediterranean coastline.

It also includes the conversion of $11 billion in existing deposits to be used for unspecified projects across Egypt. The Egyptian government said the total of $35 billion would be transferred within two months.

Since early 2022, when the foreign currency shortage worsened, the pound has now lost more than two-thirds of its value against the dollar in a series of staggered devaluations.

The war in Gaza and attacks on Red Sea shipping have put at risk receipts from tourism and Suez Canal traffic, two other main sources of hard currency. Suez Canal revenues had dropped by more than 50%, Maait said, though Egypt’s tourism minister said visitor numbers rose at the start of this year.

Remittances from Egyptians working abroad, the country’s top single source of foreign currency, slowed sharply last year amid expectations that the pound would fall.

Madbouly said on Thursday that the interior ministry would use an “iron fist” against traders who were channelling remittances outside the banking system.

Forex

Asia FX weakens as dollar recovers amid waning rate cut cheer

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com– Most Asian currencies retreated on Friday as the dollar recovered a measure of recent losses after a string of Federal Reserve officials warned that bets on interest rate cuts may be premature. 

While the greenback was still headed for some weekly losses, it was trading well above a one-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields also rebounded, pressuring risk-driven markets.

Regional factors also weighed on Asian currencies, as economic data from China and Japan underwhelmed.

Chinese yuan weak amid mixed economic prints 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22.

Economic readings from the country continued to offer middling signals on an economic recovery. Data on Friday showed grew more than expected in April.

But other readings showed growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese accelerated last month. 

Chinese also grew less than expected in April, while fell from a seven-month high, but still remained relatively high. 

The readings presented a mixed outlook for Asia’s biggest economy. They also came after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on key Chinese industries, sparking fears of a reignited trade war between Beijing and Washington. 

Concerns over China weighed on other currencies with trade exposure to the country. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2%, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.7%. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1% after the island state’s grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, and also contracted sharply from last year. 

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or
remove ads
.

Weakness in the Japanese yen deepened after weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data for the first quarter. The pair rose 0.3% and was close to breaking above 156, extending sharp overnight gains.

Dollar recoups most weekly losses as Fed downplays rate cuts 

The and rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending an overnight rebound from one-month lows.

The dollar’s recovery came as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

This saw traders scale back bets on a September rate cut, albeit slightly, according to the . 

Still, the dollar was set to lose about 0.7% this week, following some softer-than-expected data for April. The reading, coupled with soft data pushed up hopes that inflation will cool in the coming months.

Continue Reading

Forex

Dollar steadies, but on track for sharp weekly loss

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in European trade Friday, but was on track for a hefty weekly fall after cooling inflation and weak retail sales brought Federal Reserve rate cuts back into focus. 

At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 104.580, marginally above a five-week low just below 104 seen earlier this week.

Dollar steadies after hawkish Fed speak

The dollar has recovered to a degree as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

“I now believe that it will take longer to reach our 2% goal than I previously thought,” St. Louis Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester said on Thursday, adding that further monitoring of incoming data will be needed. 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams agreed with this view. 

“I don’t see any indicators now telling me … there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect that, I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term,” Williams said.

However, the dollar is still on course for a weekly loss of around 0.7% after the milder than expected U.S. data raised expectations the will deliver two interest rate cuts this year, probably starting in September.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or
remove ads
.

U.S. were also flat in April and softer-than-expected, and manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.

“Our view for the near term remains that we could see a further stabilisation in USD crosses as markets await the next key data input: April core PCE on 31 May,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Euro slips ahead of CPI release

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower to 1.0860, having traded as high as 1.0895 in the wake of U.S. inflation release, but the single currency is still up around 0.9% on the dollar this week.

The final reading of the is due later in the session, and is expected to show inflation rose by 2.4% on an annual basis in April.

The is widely expected to cut interest rates in June, but traders remain unsure of how many more cuts, if any, the central bank will agree to over the course of the rest of the year.

Traders have priced in 70 basis points of ECB cuts this year – a lot more than the just under 50 bps of easing priced in for the Fed.

fell 0.1% to 1.2658, but is still on track for gains of around 1% this week.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates from a 16-year high this summer, but volatility is likely to be limited ahead of the release of key U.K. inflation figures next week.

Yen slips after weak Japanese GDP data

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 155.87, close to breaking above 156, after weaker-than-expected Japanese data for the first quarter. 

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or
remove ads
.

traded 0.1% higher at 7.2209, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22 after data earlier Friday showed grew more than expected in April, but growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese house prices accelerated last month.

 

Continue Reading

Forex

ING anticipates EUR/GBP rise as BoE rate cut bets increase

letizo News

Published

on

Broker ING noted the potential downside risks for the British pound, noting the currency’s recent decline from its peak against the euro. The GBP’s sensitivity to the performance of US equities was highlighted as a contributing factor to its movement.

The firm also observed a decrease in volatility for the pair as the market anticipates the release of key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the UK scheduled for next week.

ING’s UK economist suggests that there may be a dovish tilt in expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy. The firm maintains a favorable outlook on the possibility of the EUR/GBP pair rising, as market participants might increase their wagers on a potential interest rate cut by the BoE in June.

The British financial markets were focused on a speech delivered by Catherine Mann of the BoE, who is regarded as the most hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

This event followed comments made by Megan Greene, who recently shared a cautiously optimistic perspective on inflation, mirroring sentiments expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the last meeting.

ING’s commentary comes as investors and analysts closely watch the central bank’s moves, which could significantly influence currency valuations. The anticipation of UK CPI data and the BoE’s potential response are key factors in the firm’s analysis of the GBP’s trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved