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Dollar unloved ahead of key US inflation data; euro near eight-week high

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Dollar unloved ahead of key US inflation data; euro near eight-week high
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower in early European trade Monday, trading near two-month lows ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data for more clues over the timing of the start of the anticipated Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle. 

At 04:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 102.287, after registering a hefty weekly loss of over 1% last, falling to levels last seen in mid January.

Dollar still weak ahead of U.S. CPI

The dollar was hit hard last week after comments from Fed chief , during his two-day testimony in front of Congress, were seen as dovish by the markets, suggesting the U.S. central bank was preparing to start cutting interest rates in the summer.

Mixed jobs data on Friday–with increasing by 275,000 but the rising to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months–kept an anticipated June interest rate cut from the Fed on the table.

And now traders will be looking to Tuesday’s data as they try to gauge how soon the Fed could start cutting interest rates.

Economists are expecting February’s consumer price index to rise 0.4% after a faster than expected increase of 0.3% in January.

“We expect inflation figures to put a stop to the dollar decline this week,” said analysts at ING, in a note. 

“The shifts in FX positioning last week no longer justify an exacerbation in USD downward pressure unless key data starts to turn in favour of Fed easing. There is a non-negligible risk that part of the USD losses driven by Powell’s testimony are unwound this week.”

Euro near eight-week high

In Europe, edged 0.1% higher to 1.0944, with the euro retaining strength after hitting an eight-week high against the dollar last week in the process of recording its best weekly performance against the buck since the week ended Dec. 22.

The ECB kept rates at record highs of 4% last week, while hinting that June could be the month to start cutting interest rates to support the region’s stuttering economy.

Traders will also be looking to the eurozone January print, due later in the week.

December’s report showed a large increase in production which erased a full year of declines. Another strong reading would be an encouraging sign for first quarter GDP growth.

“We see some downside risks this week for EUR/USD, and a correction could take it back to the 1.0850-1.0900 area,” said ING. 

“However, our call for a first rate cut in June by both the ECB and the Fed can still argue for a higher EUR/USD, as the Fed should ultimately deliver a larger easing package.”

traded 0.1% lower at 1.2841, ahead of Tuesday’s release of the latest U.K. report, with traders and the Bank of England alike focusing on wage growth amid speculation over the timing of a first rate cut.

Yen in demand ahead of BOJ meeting

In Asia, traded 0.3% lower to 146.70, with the yen surging sharply in the past two sessions to an over one-month high, supported by growing conviction that the was close to ending its ultra-easy monetary policy.

An upward revision in GDP data showed the Japanese economy dodging a technical recession in the fourth quarter, giving the BOJ more headroom to tighten policy sooner, potentially as soon as next week’s meeting.

edged lower to 7.1840, while fell 0.2% to 0.6614 amid waning bets over more rate hikes by the .

 

Forex

Asia FX weakens as dollar recovers amid waning rate cut cheer

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies retreated on Friday as the dollar recovered a measure of recent losses after a string of Federal Reserve officials warned that bets on interest rate cuts may be premature. 

While the greenback was still headed for some weekly losses, it was trading well above a one-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields also rebounded, pressuring risk-driven markets.

Regional factors also weighed on Asian currencies, as economic data from China and Japan underwhelmed.

Chinese yuan weak amid mixed economic prints 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22.

Economic readings from the country continued to offer middling signals on an economic recovery. Data on Friday showed grew more than expected in April.

But other readings showed growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese accelerated last month. 

Chinese also grew less than expected in April, while fell from a seven-month high, but still remained relatively high. 

The readings presented a mixed outlook for Asia’s biggest economy. They also came after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on key Chinese industries, sparking fears of a reignited trade war between Beijing and Washington. 

Concerns over China weighed on other currencies with trade exposure to the country. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2%, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.7%. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1% after the island state’s grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, and also contracted sharply from last year. 

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Weakness in the Japanese yen deepened after weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data for the first quarter. The pair rose 0.3% and was close to breaking above 156, extending sharp overnight gains.

Dollar recoups most weekly losses as Fed downplays rate cuts 

The and rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending an overnight rebound from one-month lows.

The dollar’s recovery came as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

This saw traders scale back bets on a September rate cut, albeit slightly, according to the . 

Still, the dollar was set to lose about 0.7% this week, following some softer-than-expected data for April. The reading, coupled with soft data pushed up hopes that inflation will cool in the coming months.

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Dollar steadies, but on track for sharp weekly loss

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in European trade Friday, but was on track for a hefty weekly fall after cooling inflation and weak retail sales brought Federal Reserve rate cuts back into focus. 

At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 104.580, marginally above a five-week low just below 104 seen earlier this week.

Dollar steadies after hawkish Fed speak

The dollar has recovered to a degree as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

“I now believe that it will take longer to reach our 2% goal than I previously thought,” St. Louis Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester said on Thursday, adding that further monitoring of incoming data will be needed. 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams agreed with this view. 

“I don’t see any indicators now telling me … there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect that, I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term,” Williams said.

However, the dollar is still on course for a weekly loss of around 0.7% after the milder than expected U.S. data raised expectations the will deliver two interest rate cuts this year, probably starting in September.

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U.S. were also flat in April and softer-than-expected, and manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.

“Our view for the near term remains that we could see a further stabilisation in USD crosses as markets await the next key data input: April core PCE on 31 May,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Euro slips ahead of CPI release

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower to 1.0860, having traded as high as 1.0895 in the wake of U.S. inflation release, but the single currency is still up around 0.9% on the dollar this week.

The final reading of the is due later in the session, and is expected to show inflation rose by 2.4% on an annual basis in April.

The is widely expected to cut interest rates in June, but traders remain unsure of how many more cuts, if any, the central bank will agree to over the course of the rest of the year.

Traders have priced in 70 basis points of ECB cuts this year – a lot more than the just under 50 bps of easing priced in for the Fed.

fell 0.1% to 1.2658, but is still on track for gains of around 1% this week.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates from a 16-year high this summer, but volatility is likely to be limited ahead of the release of key U.K. inflation figures next week.

Yen slips after weak Japanese GDP data

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 155.87, close to breaking above 156, after weaker-than-expected Japanese data for the first quarter. 

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traded 0.1% higher at 7.2209, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22 after data earlier Friday showed grew more than expected in April, but growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese house prices accelerated last month.

 

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ING anticipates EUR/GBP rise as BoE rate cut bets increase

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Broker ING noted the potential downside risks for the British pound, noting the currency’s recent decline from its peak against the euro. The GBP’s sensitivity to the performance of US equities was highlighted as a contributing factor to its movement.

The firm also observed a decrease in volatility for the pair as the market anticipates the release of key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the UK scheduled for next week.

ING’s UK economist suggests that there may be a dovish tilt in expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy. The firm maintains a favorable outlook on the possibility of the EUR/GBP pair rising, as market participants might increase their wagers on a potential interest rate cut by the BoE in June.

The British financial markets were focused on a speech delivered by Catherine Mann of the BoE, who is regarded as the most hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

This event followed comments made by Megan Greene, who recently shared a cautiously optimistic perspective on inflation, mirroring sentiments expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the last meeting.

ING’s commentary comes as investors and analysts closely watch the central bank’s moves, which could significantly influence currency valuations. The anticipation of UK CPI data and the BoE’s potential response are key factors in the firm’s analysis of the GBP’s trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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