TL;DR

• Bitcoin kicked off 2024 on a high note, achieving a record high over $73,500, though it later dipped to around $63,000. A new bull run may hinge on factors like technological advances, adoption rates, and global events.
• Key influences on BTC’s future price include potential changes in the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies and the outcome of Ripple’s lawsuit against the SEC, both of which could significantly impact investor sentiment and market dynamics.

The Overall Conditions

Bitcoin (BTC) started 2024 on the right foot, seeing its price gradually rising in the first quarter and even hitting a new all-time high of over $73,500 in mid-March. However, the past two months have not been that successful, with the asset briefly plunging below the $60K mark and currently trading at around $63,000 (per CoinGecko’s data).

As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT whether a new bull run is on the horizon this year. The AI-powered chatbot claimed that predicting Bitcoin’s price behavior is quite speculative and depends on several factors. 

It assumed that a new bull run may be triggered by technological developments, increased adoption, positive investor sentiment, public interest, geopolitical events, and whatnot. 

Diving Into Detail

Besides the aforementioned factors, ChatGPT touched upon two particular elements that could trigger a BTC price resurgence: actions coming from the US Federal Reserve and the outcome of the lawsuit between Ripple and the US SEC. 

Shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic, America’s central bank launched an aggressive anti-inflationary policy to decrease the inflation rate in the world’s largest economy. It introduced multiple rate hikes, which might have halted investments in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

However, there are some indications that the Fed may pivot from that regime later this year, a move that many BTC bulls hope for.

“Lowering interest rates can stimulate the flow of money into Bitcoin by altering investor behavior, adjusting risk appetites. These factors combined can contribute to upward movements in Bitcoin’s price,” ChatGPT estimated.

Furthermore, a decisive triumph for Ripple in its legal case against the SEC may fuel an overall revival for the cryptocurrency market. The companies entered into a trial phase last month, and according to some, Ripple has a better chance to emerge victorious due to the three partial court wins secured throughout 2023.

“A win for Ripple might be seen as a defeat for potential overreach by regulatory bodies like the SEC, boosting investor confidence in the resilience of major cryptocurrencies against regulatory challenges. This could encourage both retail and institutional investors to increase their stakes in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin,” the chatbot concluded.

Founder and former CEO of Digitex Futures Exchange, Adam Todd, has pleaded guilty to willingly leading the firm to fail to establish an Anti-Money Laundering (AML) program.

Notably, the former CEO’s plea was issued in a federal court in the Southern District of Florida on May 7.

Former Digitex CEO Pleads Guilty

The U.S. Attorney’s Office stated that Todd pleaded guilty to “willfully causing” Digitex to violate the Bank Secrecy Act. Indicted earlier this year, Todd was accused of overseeing an unregistered futures platform targeting U.S. customers from 2018 to 2022, allegedly neglecting vital Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols.

In 2020, Todd announced that there would be “no KYC identity verification requirements of any kind” following a data breach at Digitex. It was reported that a former exchange employee stole information from user’s passports and driver’s licenses.

At the time, Digitex claimed to be blocking U.S. IPs and requested users to confirm that they were not based in the United States. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) then filed a lawsuit against Todd and Digitex in 2022. The following year, they won their case, resulting in an order for $16 million in disgorgement and penalties.

According to Todd’s LinkedIn profile, he resigned as Digitex CEO in October 2022 and has been the lead developer at Digitex Games since February 2023.

Todd is facing up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine for his actions. However, the U.S. Attorney’s Office has not yet announced Todd’s sentencing hearing date.

Crypto Exchange CEOs Face Legal Challenges

Digitex’s legal challenges add to the ongoing series of legal issues surrounding exchanges in the crypto industry, which also includes FTX and Binance.

In 2022, Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, was arrested and extradited to the United States. Initially entering a plea of not guilty, he was placed under house arrest but subsequently remanded to jail due to allegations of witness intimidation. After a six-week trial, he was convicted and sentenced to 25 years in prison.

Conversely, Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance, faced charges in 2023. He pleaded guilty and was granted bail, allowing him to remain free. Last month, he was sentenced to four months in prison.

Bankman-Fried faced seven felony charges related to defrauding investors and misusing customer funds. In contrast, Zhao faced one charge related to failing to maintain an effective Anti-Money Laundering program at Binance.

The cryptocurrency market has calmed down considerably in the past 24 hours, halting the bearish assault and finding some consolidation in the process.

Bitcoin’s price is trading at around $61K on Sunday morning, while Ethereum is now firmly below the pivotal $3K level.

Are the Bitcoin Bulls Regrouping?

As CryptoPotato reported yesterday, Bitcoin’s price experienced a sudden correction, dropping below $61K and losing around 3.5% in a single day.

This seemingly had to do with a statement from a representative of the US Federal Reserve, who said that it may be too early to think about rate cuts.

The market has calmed down since then, and it seems that the worst is behind us.

The bulls even attempted a recovery, but it was quickly halted at around $61.4K when sellers stepped in and pushed the price to $61K, where it currently trades.

It’s worth noting that despite the recent declines, the Fear and Greed index is still pointing out that the market is in a state of “greed.”

Altcoins Consolidate, Ethereum Below $3K

None of the major altcoins by means of total market capitalization has recovered from the crash the other day, but at least they are consolidating and charting ever so slight gains, as seen in the heatmap below.

Even though the market seems to be completely painted in green, that’s just the 24-hour heatmap. On a seven-day scale, most of the cryptocurrencies are trading in the red.

It’s worth noting that Ethereum is now consolidating below the critical psychological level of $3K, and it’s very interesting to see if the buyers will be able to reclaim it soon.

Meanwhile, today’s best performers are Immutable (IMX) – up 4.7%, and Ribbon Finance (RBN) – up 3.3%.

On the other hand, the cryptocurrencies that performed the worst are Zebec Protocol (ZBC) – down 7.8%, and Kaspa (KAS) – down 4.8%.