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Analysis-Pasta makers cheer Turkey as its durum wheat flows abroad

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By Ceyda Caglayan and Gus Trompiz

ISTANBUL/PARIS (Reuters) – Turkey’s spectacular breakthrough as an exporter of durum wheat has spared pasta fans another year of price pain and the country is poised to remain a crucial source of the ingredient prized in Mediterranean cuisine.

On track to be the world’s second-largest durum exporter in 2023/24, Turkey has helped fill a supply gap caused by a second drought in three years in top supplier Canada and stifled a price surge seen at the season’s start.

Global stocks of durum are still forecast to hit a three-decade low this season, according to the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental body. But Turkish shipments have averted an immediate shortfall and kept durum in line with easing world prices of staple grains.

Previously a net importer of the hard wheat whose milled flour is used to make pasta, couscous and certain types of bread in the Mediterranean region, Turkey has taken the market by surprise by exporting around 1.5 million metric tons of durum so far in the 2023/24 season ending in June.

“Turkey, by entering global markets as an exporter, changed the game,” Aykut Goymen, chairman of Turkey’s pasta industry association, said.

“I can say that it was not a one-off thing and it is sustainable for Turkey to be a durum exporter in the coming years.”

Turkey’s better-than-anticipated crop last year left stocks brimming following hefty imports made in response to high inflation and earlier drought.

Attractive prices for farmers, including a near 30% rise in the state’s purchase price last year, as well as investment in irrigation, have boosted sowing and yields. Weakness in the lira during an economic crisis also made Turkish durum more competitive overseas.

With growers planting more and weather staying clement so far, Turkish production is widely expected to set a second straight record this year above 4 million tons.

That comfortably surpasses the country’s annual domestic consumption of up to 3 million tons. Demand from its large export-focused pasta industry has been curbed by a shift to using cheaper soft wheat for cost-conscious markets in Africa and Latin America.

Analysts anticipate another year of substantial exports, even if Canadian output recovers, with the 2024/25 volume seen potentially exceeding 1 million tons again.

Turkish shipments, along with sizeable flows from Russia and Kazakhstan, have been a boon for importers in Italy.

“Pasta producers bought durum from Turkey because it was offered to us at competitive prices,” said Vincenzo Divella, co-CEO of the eponymous Italian pasta company.

“We had a big problem in Canada … In our country, the season was disastrous because of the weather and rains.”

The Turkish crop is seen in Italy as a good-quality option, though Canadian durum remains the benchmark for many processors.

Lower durum prices, which have fallen by at least one-fifth to return to where they were before last summer’s panic over Canada’s drought, are bringing relief for shoppers. Retail pasta prices in Italy in the two months to Feb. 25 were down 3.5% year on year, compared with a 7.4% rise over 2023, market data specialist Nielsen said.

With Europe now planning to use tariffs to shut out grain from Russia, in further fallout from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkish trade could become even more crucial.

“For durum, this could have major consequences, particularly for Italian imports,” Severine Omnes-Maisons, analyst at Strategie Grains, said of the proposed tariffs on Russia, which has supplied a fifth of EU durum imports so far in 2023/24.

Dwindling cultivation in the durum consumption heartlands of Europe and North Africa may also make the market more reliant on imported supply from Turkey.

Drought has gripped parts of the Maghreb and southern Europe in what analysts see as a sign that the zone is becoming too arid even for a crop that likes dry, warm conditions. Morocco’s cereal harvest is set to shrink by half this year.

In France, a regular supplier to EU neighbours, torrential rain could reduce this year’s durum area to a new 21st century low.

Importers have responded by scooping up crop from Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan, a trio that Argus Media analyst Alexandre Marie sees as a potential “Canada on Europe’s doorstep”.

But some are cautious about Turkey’s long-term role given its state-managed grain supply and its own climate risks.

© Reuters. A person grates parmesan cheese over a plate of fettuccine with ragu at a restaurant in Rome, Italy, March 25, 2024. REUTERS/Remo Casilli

This season’s export campaign has been marked by uncertainty over how much exports the authorities will allow. State grain agency TMO this month cancelled an export tender.

“This season we were living day to day with Turkey. It remains a very political process,” one European durum trader said.

Commodities

Russia is shipping oil to North Korea above UN mandated levels – US official

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(This May 2 story corrects U.S. official’s quote to say annual cap is 500,000 barrels, not 500, in paragraph 3 and to say Ukraine, not North Korea, in paragraph 8)

By Steve Holland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Russia has been quietly shipping refined petroleum to North Korea at levels that appear to violate the mandates of the United Nations Security Council, a U.S. official said on Thursday, adding the U.S. is planning new sanctions in response.

The disclosure came on the first day after a U.N. panel of experts monitoring enforcement of longstanding U.N. sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear weapons and missile programs was disbanded after a Russian veto.

“At the same time that Moscow vetoed the panel’s mandate renewal, Russia has been shipping refined petroleum from Port Vostochny to the DPRK (North Korea). Russian shipments have already pushed DPRK imports above the 500,000-barrel annual cap mandated by the U.N. Security Council,” the U.S. official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official said that in March alone, Russia shipped more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea and that given the close proximity of Russian and North Korean commercial ports, Russia could sustain these shipments indefinitely.

Russia blocked the annual renewal of the panel in late March in what the U.S. official described as a calculated move by Moscow to hide its own violations of UN Security Council resolutions.

The official said the United States will continue to impose sanctions “against those working to facilitate arms and refined petroleum transfers between Russia and the DPRK.”

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“We have previously worked to coordinate autonomous sanctions designations with our partners — including Australia, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom — and we will continue to do so,” the official said.

North Korea has been helping Russia in its war against Ukraine by supplying ballistic missiles.

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Oil settles lower on signs of easing supply tightness

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By Shariq Khan

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices closed slightly lower on Tuesday on signs of easing supply concerns, while market participants shifted their focus to U.S. stockpiles data due later today and Wednesday.

futures settled 17 cents lower at $83.16 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed 10 cents lower at $78.38.

Prices fell further in thin post-settlement trading after market sources said that data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a jump in and fuel stocks last week. Rising inventories, typically a sign of weak demand, have defied analysts’ expectations in recent weeks.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast a decrease in U.S. oil and fuel stockpiles, and official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. [API/S] [EIA/S]

Brent crude futures traded at $82.98 a barrel by 4:48 p.m. ET, 35 cents lower than Monday’s closing price, and WTI futures were down 23 cents to $78.26 a barrel. U.S. gasoline futures and ultra-low sulfur diesel futures also fell in extended trading.

“If EIA shows less barrels are going into the refineries, then that is a problem for crude oil here,” Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger said. “Heading into peak summer driving season we should be drawing, not building,” he added.

Current global inventory data shows crude oil and petroleum supplies are running 1.1 million barrel per day above forecasts in developed economies, according to an analysis by energy brokerage StoneX.

“Global inventories remain in a building phase and has accelerated recently,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes wrote to clients on Tuesday.

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The EIA on Tuesday raised its forecasts for this year’s world oil and liquid fuels output and lowered its demand expectations, pointing to a well-supplied market as opposed to prior forecasts that showed under-supply.

The premium of the first-month Brent contract to the six-month contract slipped to $2.90 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest since mid-February, another sign of market participants betting on easing supply tightness.

Last week, Brent and WTI had their steepest weekly losses in three months as weak U.S. jobs data fueled hopes for interest rate cuts.

Oil prices found some support in Tuesday’s session from a U.S. government solicitation to buy more than 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Oil traders largely looked past escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the Israeli military seized control of the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt and its tanks pushed into the southern Gazan town of Rafah, as mediators struggled to secure a ceasefire agreement.

“Instead, their focus appears directed towards the uncertainties surrounding global economic growth prospects and the anticipated impact of sluggish growth on oil demand,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at financial brokerage ActivTrades.

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Oil prices fall as US stockpiles increase; OPEC+ output levels eyed

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Investing.co — Oil prices fell Wednesday as industry data pointed to a sustained increase in U.S. inventories, implying demand from the world’s largest consumer is coming under pressure.

At 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT),  fell 1.2% to $82.12 a barrel, while fell 1.3% to $77.37 a barrel.

US oil inventories clock unexpected build – API

Data from the showed that U.S. oil inventories grew 0.5 million barrels in the week to May 3, confounding expectations for a draw of 1.4 million barrels.

“API numbers released overnight were moderately bearish due to stock builds in both crude and products,” analysts at ING said, in a note.

“While US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased by only 500k barrels over the week, gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 1.5m barrels and 1.7m barrels respectively.  In addition, stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, grew by  1.3m barrels over the week.”

The data comes after U.S. inventories saw an unexpected, outsized build in the prior week, which spurred speculation that global oil markets were not as tight as initially expected.

The API data usually heralds a similar reading from , which is due later on Wednesday.

Strong U.S. supplies have undermined expectations of tighter global oil markets, especially as recent data also showed U.S. oil production raced back to record highs in February. 

OPEC+ to roll over supply output cuts? 

Cautious expectations on supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ahead of a June 1 policy meeting also weighed on markets.

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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that there had been no discussions about an oil output increase by OPEC+, a day after he was reported saying the group had the option of increasing production.

“Our oil balance suggests that there is no need for a full rollover of the 2.2m b/d of cuts. Instead, a partial rollover should be enough to keep the market balanced for the remainder of the year,” ING added. “However, recent price action increases the risk that full cuts are rolled over, which in turn increases the risk of OPEC+ overtightening the oil market later in the year.”

Middle East tensions persist, Israel-Hamas ceasefire uncertain 

Israel kept up its offensive against Rafah on Tuesday, while also seizing a key main border crossing in the city. 

The move came even as Hamas officials reportedly accepted a new ceasefire proposal for Gaza – one that Israel rejected. Hamas also expressed ire over Israel’s attacks on Rafah, and that the strikes largely undermined any progress towards a truce.

Still, U.S. officials said a ceasefire could still be reached, as delegates from both sides met in Cairo for negotiations.

The prospect of continued geopolitical unrest in the Middle East presented some support to oil prices, amid bets that the unrest will disrupt supplies in the oil-rich region.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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