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Forex

China’s cycle of dollar hoarding and weakening yuan gets vicious

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(Corrects to delete quote in paragraph 6 following post publication review)

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -Chinese businesses are hoarding dollars because they expect their own currency to weaken, and that in turn is exacerbating a slide in the yuan that has been driven by wobbly stock markets and feeble growth in the world’s second largest economy.

This feedback loop has been playing out for months in mainland currency markets, spurred on by the dollar’s rising yield. Foreign exchange deposits have climbed $53.7 billion since September to $832.6 billion, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) data shows.

Analysts say one of two things needs to happen to end the downward spiral: the Federal Reserve needs to make deep rate cuts or the yuan needs to hit some form of a trough. Both seem distant.

is at five-month lows and has lost 1.9% to the dollar this year as foreign investors pull more money out of its struggling markets. The currency has fallen from around 6.7 per dollar at the start of 2023 to around 7.24 currently, a 5% drop.

Regular inflows from domestic exporters have dried up, as businesses choose to park their dollars offshore in deposits that earn them 6%, compared to 1.5% on yuan deposits at home, and just wait for better exchange rates.

“The rate differential between U.S. and China is the most positive since 2007, and I think this powerful fundamental fact is enough to explain why Chinese exporters are reluctant to exchange dollars for yuan,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “This huge positive yield spread is not evaporating anytime soon.”

Even for companies that choose to bring their dollars home, while authorities have capped dollar deposit rates at major lenders at 2.8% since the middle of last year, there are other dollar-based wealth-management products that invest in overseas funds offering as much as 4.4% for 7-day investments.

Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered (OTC:), says a “confirmation of the Fed rate cut including a clearer dollar softening trend” could be a catalyst for corporates to convert their foreign exchange into yuan.

However, if the recent string of robust inflation and economic data in the United States is anything to go by, Fed rate cuts are being pushed out to the end of 2024 and the dollar is on a tear.

That means it is more likely the yuan may hit 7.3, at which level exporters may bring dollars home, sensing authorities may shield it at that level. It was roughly the trough for the yuan in both October 2022 and July 2023.

Several investment banks also predict the yuan will weaken to 7.3 per dollar by the third quarter of this year, but no further. A Shanghai-based banker who deals with corporates said some of his clients are now eyeing 7.3 as the level to sell their dollars.

TERMS OF TRADE

Chinese authorities do not seem unduly perturbed by this accumulation of dollars by businesses and citizens. State banks that normally act on behalf of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have been buying the yuan to stem its slide.

The PBOC did not respond to a Reuters request for comments.

Lemon Zhang, a strategist at Barclays, says exporters’ “reluctance to convert their FX receipts will likely continue for the next two quarters”.

She does not expect Chinese regulators to force exporters to settle their FX receipts, but says there could instead be smaller macro prudential or tax relief measures to encourage conversion.

Despite the decline, the yuan has not fallen as far and fast as currencies of some of its trading partners, notably Japan whose yen is down 9% this year, which has eroded China’s trade competitiveness and dented its trade surplus.

© Reuters. U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photo

China’s goods trade surplus fell 11% to $593.9 billion in 2023 from a year earlier.

Analysts at China Construction Bank (OTC:) estimate the FX settlement ratio, which measures conversion of export receipts to yuan, was just 51% in February as corporate clients placed dollars in deposits.

Forex

Asia FX weakens as dollar recovers amid waning rate cut cheer

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies retreated on Friday as the dollar recovered a measure of recent losses after a string of Federal Reserve officials warned that bets on interest rate cuts may be premature. 

While the greenback was still headed for some weekly losses, it was trading well above a one-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields also rebounded, pressuring risk-driven markets.

Regional factors also weighed on Asian currencies, as economic data from China and Japan underwhelmed.

Chinese yuan weak amid mixed economic prints 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22.

Economic readings from the country continued to offer middling signals on an economic recovery. Data on Friday showed grew more than expected in April.

But other readings showed growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese accelerated last month. 

Chinese also grew less than expected in April, while fell from a seven-month high, but still remained relatively high. 

The readings presented a mixed outlook for Asia’s biggest economy. They also came after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on key Chinese industries, sparking fears of a reignited trade war between Beijing and Washington. 

Concerns over China weighed on other currencies with trade exposure to the country. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2%, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.7%. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1% after the island state’s grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, and also contracted sharply from last year. 

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Weakness in the Japanese yen deepened after weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data for the first quarter. The pair rose 0.3% and was close to breaking above 156, extending sharp overnight gains.

Dollar recoups most weekly losses as Fed downplays rate cuts 

The and rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending an overnight rebound from one-month lows.

The dollar’s recovery came as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

This saw traders scale back bets on a September rate cut, albeit slightly, according to the . 

Still, the dollar was set to lose about 0.7% this week, following some softer-than-expected data for April. The reading, coupled with soft data pushed up hopes that inflation will cool in the coming months.

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Dollar steadies, but on track for sharp weekly loss

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in European trade Friday, but was on track for a hefty weekly fall after cooling inflation and weak retail sales brought Federal Reserve rate cuts back into focus. 

At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 104.580, marginally above a five-week low just below 104 seen earlier this week.

Dollar steadies after hawkish Fed speak

The dollar has recovered to a degree as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

“I now believe that it will take longer to reach our 2% goal than I previously thought,” St. Louis Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester said on Thursday, adding that further monitoring of incoming data will be needed. 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams agreed with this view. 

“I don’t see any indicators now telling me … there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect that, I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term,” Williams said.

However, the dollar is still on course for a weekly loss of around 0.7% after the milder than expected U.S. data raised expectations the will deliver two interest rate cuts this year, probably starting in September.

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U.S. were also flat in April and softer-than-expected, and manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.

“Our view for the near term remains that we could see a further stabilisation in USD crosses as markets await the next key data input: April core PCE on 31 May,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Euro slips ahead of CPI release

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower to 1.0860, having traded as high as 1.0895 in the wake of U.S. inflation release, but the single currency is still up around 0.9% on the dollar this week.

The final reading of the is due later in the session, and is expected to show inflation rose by 2.4% on an annual basis in April.

The is widely expected to cut interest rates in June, but traders remain unsure of how many more cuts, if any, the central bank will agree to over the course of the rest of the year.

Traders have priced in 70 basis points of ECB cuts this year – a lot more than the just under 50 bps of easing priced in for the Fed.

fell 0.1% to 1.2658, but is still on track for gains of around 1% this week.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates from a 16-year high this summer, but volatility is likely to be limited ahead of the release of key U.K. inflation figures next week.

Yen slips after weak Japanese GDP data

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 155.87, close to breaking above 156, after weaker-than-expected Japanese data for the first quarter. 

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traded 0.1% higher at 7.2209, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22 after data earlier Friday showed grew more than expected in April, but growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese house prices accelerated last month.

 

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ING anticipates EUR/GBP rise as BoE rate cut bets increase

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Broker ING noted the potential downside risks for the British pound, noting the currency’s recent decline from its peak against the euro. The GBP’s sensitivity to the performance of US equities was highlighted as a contributing factor to its movement.

The firm also observed a decrease in volatility for the pair as the market anticipates the release of key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the UK scheduled for next week.

ING’s UK economist suggests that there may be a dovish tilt in expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy. The firm maintains a favorable outlook on the possibility of the EUR/GBP pair rising, as market participants might increase their wagers on a potential interest rate cut by the BoE in June.

The British financial markets were focused on a speech delivered by Catherine Mann of the BoE, who is regarded as the most hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

This event followed comments made by Megan Greene, who recently shared a cautiously optimistic perspective on inflation, mirroring sentiments expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the last meeting.

ING’s commentary comes as investors and analysts closely watch the central bank’s moves, which could significantly influence currency valuations. The anticipation of UK CPI data and the BoE’s potential response are key factors in the firm’s analysis of the GBP’s trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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