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Forex

UBS raises USD/JPY forecast amid strong dollar

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UBS adjusted its forecast for the currency pair, citing the strength of the US dollar as a key factor. The firm increased its quarter-end predictions for the pair to ¥155 for June 2024, followed by ¥152, ¥148, and ¥145 for the subsequent quarters through March 2025. The previous forecasts were set at ¥148, ¥145, ¥143, and ¥141, respectively.

The revision comes as the market adjusts its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have been scaled back significantly. Additionally, UBS noted that short positions in the yen have reached extreme levels. These market dynamics have contributed to the perceived dislocation of the USD/JPY pair due to the robust performance of the US dollar.

UBS also provided guidance for investors who had previously sold USD/JPY, suggesting that those who took positions anticipating an upside risk for the pair at levels between ¥150–¥152 should consider converting back at these initial levels. After this conversion, investors could then look into engaging in additional positions.

The firm’s updated forecast reflects a belief that while ¥155 is not an absolute threshold, it is a level that is informed by current market trends, including the recalibration of interest rate expectations and the positioning in the yen. This guidance is aimed at helping investors navigate the currency markets amid these shifting conditions.

The new targets set by UBS for the USD/JPY currency pair are indicative of the firm’s analysis of the economic indicators and market sentiment at the time of the forecast. Investors and market watchers typically monitor such forecasts from major financial institutions to inform their trading strategies and expectations for currency movements.

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InvestingPro Insights

UBS’s revised forecast for the USD/JPY currency pair is underscored by the robust performance of the US dollar. To provide a broader context on the dollar’s recent strength, InvestingPro data shows a consistent uptrend in the dollar’s value. Over the past year, the dollar has experienced a 4.16% price total return, with a notable year-to-date increase of 4.62%. These figures reflect the currency’s strong position in the market.

Additionally, the previous close price of the dollar was reported at 106.08 USD, reinforcing the currency’s solid performance. This data aligns with UBS’s assessment, which may influence currency traders to consider the firm’s advice on the USD/JPY positions.

InvestingPro Tips suggest that investors should keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and market positioning, as these factors can significantly impact currency pair movements. For those seeking a more in-depth analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips for currency traders. To enhance your trading strategy with these insights, consider subscribing to InvestingPro. Use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription, and access the full list of 15+ InvestingPro Tips that could further inform your investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Forex

Asia FX weakens as dollar recovers amid waning rate cut cheer

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies retreated on Friday as the dollar recovered a measure of recent losses after a string of Federal Reserve officials warned that bets on interest rate cuts may be premature. 

While the greenback was still headed for some weekly losses, it was trading well above a one-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields also rebounded, pressuring risk-driven markets.

Regional factors also weighed on Asian currencies, as economic data from China and Japan underwhelmed.

Chinese yuan weak amid mixed economic prints 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22.

Economic readings from the country continued to offer middling signals on an economic recovery. Data on Friday showed grew more than expected in April.

But other readings showed growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese accelerated last month. 

Chinese also grew less than expected in April, while fell from a seven-month high, but still remained relatively high. 

The readings presented a mixed outlook for Asia’s biggest economy. They also came after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on key Chinese industries, sparking fears of a reignited trade war between Beijing and Washington. 

Concerns over China weighed on other currencies with trade exposure to the country. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2%, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.7%. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1% after the island state’s grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, and also contracted sharply from last year. 

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Weakness in the Japanese yen deepened after weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data for the first quarter. The pair rose 0.3% and was close to breaking above 156, extending sharp overnight gains.

Dollar recoups most weekly losses as Fed downplays rate cuts 

The and rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending an overnight rebound from one-month lows.

The dollar’s recovery came as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

This saw traders scale back bets on a September rate cut, albeit slightly, according to the . 

Still, the dollar was set to lose about 0.7% this week, following some softer-than-expected data for April. The reading, coupled with soft data pushed up hopes that inflation will cool in the coming months.

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Dollar steadies, but on track for sharp weekly loss

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in European trade Friday, but was on track for a hefty weekly fall after cooling inflation and weak retail sales brought Federal Reserve rate cuts back into focus. 

At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 104.580, marginally above a five-week low just below 104 seen earlier this week.

Dollar steadies after hawkish Fed speak

The dollar has recovered to a degree as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

“I now believe that it will take longer to reach our 2% goal than I previously thought,” St. Louis Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester said on Thursday, adding that further monitoring of incoming data will be needed. 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams agreed with this view. 

“I don’t see any indicators now telling me … there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect that, I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term,” Williams said.

However, the dollar is still on course for a weekly loss of around 0.7% after the milder than expected U.S. data raised expectations the will deliver two interest rate cuts this year, probably starting in September.

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U.S. were also flat in April and softer-than-expected, and manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.

“Our view for the near term remains that we could see a further stabilisation in USD crosses as markets await the next key data input: April core PCE on 31 May,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Euro slips ahead of CPI release

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower to 1.0860, having traded as high as 1.0895 in the wake of U.S. inflation release, but the single currency is still up around 0.9% on the dollar this week.

The final reading of the is due later in the session, and is expected to show inflation rose by 2.4% on an annual basis in April.

The is widely expected to cut interest rates in June, but traders remain unsure of how many more cuts, if any, the central bank will agree to over the course of the rest of the year.

Traders have priced in 70 basis points of ECB cuts this year – a lot more than the just under 50 bps of easing priced in for the Fed.

fell 0.1% to 1.2658, but is still on track for gains of around 1% this week.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates from a 16-year high this summer, but volatility is likely to be limited ahead of the release of key U.K. inflation figures next week.

Yen slips after weak Japanese GDP data

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 155.87, close to breaking above 156, after weaker-than-expected Japanese data for the first quarter. 

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traded 0.1% higher at 7.2209, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22 after data earlier Friday showed grew more than expected in April, but growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese house prices accelerated last month.

 

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ING anticipates EUR/GBP rise as BoE rate cut bets increase

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Broker ING noted the potential downside risks for the British pound, noting the currency’s recent decline from its peak against the euro. The GBP’s sensitivity to the performance of US equities was highlighted as a contributing factor to its movement.

The firm also observed a decrease in volatility for the pair as the market anticipates the release of key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the UK scheduled for next week.

ING’s UK economist suggests that there may be a dovish tilt in expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy. The firm maintains a favorable outlook on the possibility of the EUR/GBP pair rising, as market participants might increase their wagers on a potential interest rate cut by the BoE in June.

The British financial markets were focused on a speech delivered by Catherine Mann of the BoE, who is regarded as the most hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

This event followed comments made by Megan Greene, who recently shared a cautiously optimistic perspective on inflation, mirroring sentiments expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the last meeting.

ING’s commentary comes as investors and analysts closely watch the central bank’s moves, which could significantly influence currency valuations. The anticipation of UK CPI data and the BoE’s potential response are key factors in the firm’s analysis of the GBP’s trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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