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Here’s The Exact Top Of The Next Bitcoin Cycle, Power Law Says

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The creator of the popular ‘Bitcoin Power Law’ has unveiled a chart detailing his price model’s exact BTC price targets for the next several market cycles.

The model predicts that Bitcoin will reach $218,875 at its cycle peak in November 2025, before descending to $96,677 at its bottom in December 2026.

What Is The Bitcoin Power Law?

The Bitcoin Power Law is a long-term price model that forecasts Bitcoin’s future market value as if it were bound by the laws of physics. The man behind the model – Giovanni Santostasi – is a former physics professor, who believes Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory follows a “power law” relationship with time.

“Price is a power law, hash rate is a power law, adoption is a power law,” wrote Santostasi to Twitter on Monday. “We even understand why and have a full Theory about it.”

A power law is a perfect relationship between two quantities such that one is proportional to a fixed power of the other. One example is the law of planetary motion, which states that a planet’s distance from the sun is directly proportional to the time it takes to fully orbit around the sun.

Power laws have even been discovered in the financial realm, having been used to predict the average waiting time for a stock price’s directional change.

Because such laws maintain themselves at any scale, the Bitcoin Power Law Theory is supposed to stay relevant across any span of time, and can forecast the asset’s price range indefinitely. For example, the model expects BTC to peak at $1,212,799 in November 2033, before retracing back to $802,399 in December 2034.

Santostasi insists that the Power Law model is no “model” at all, but a “ full and coherent theory of what Bitcoin is and how it works.” For instance, the price floor of the power law is not based on technical analysis, but instead on the “physics of mining” and a point of “miner capitulation.”

“We actually put a lot of time in developing meaningful indicators that use both the power law and the cyclic nature of Bitcoin using the Bitcoin clock,” the physicist wrote on Tuesday.

What About the Stock to Flow Model?

Santostasi is a non-believer in other popular price models, such as Plan B’s “stock-to-flow” model, which predicts exponential gains for Bitcoin in the future without diminishing returns. The model attempts to forecast Bitcoin’s price as a function of its diminishing supply inflation following each Bitcoin halving.

Technical indicators, such as Bitcoin’s “Pi Cycle Top” indicator for identifying market peaks, have been “lucky” in achieving historical accuracy, he claims.

“S2F is deeply wrong conceptually, logically, mathematically, from a construction point of view,” Santostasi said on Tuesday. “it is almost poison because gives really the wrong information about Bitcoin, basically a magic trick and a lie.”

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BTC Records Best Week Since March Amid US CPI Announcement and Big Names Buying Bitcoin ETFs: This Week’s Crypto Recap

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A lot can change in the cryptocurrency market within the span of a week and it indeed did in the past seven days. It was just last Friday when bitcoin was struggling to remain above $60,000 after another leg down, but the landscape is quite different now.

The changes started to happen during the weekend when BTC remained above the aforementioned level and even increased slightly to around $61,000. However, the first big move came on Monday when the cryptocurrency pumped to just over $63,000.

It failed to sustain that rally and retraced hard on Tuesday amid some Coinbase issues and perhaps due to pressure from the upcoming US CPI announcement on Wednesday. Once that came out, though, and the reality met expectations, bitcoin started climbing rapidly.

It jumped by several grand and shot above $66,500 as the inflows to the ETFs accelerated as well. The asset retraced slightly yesterday to just under $65,000 but went back on the offensive today. As a result, BTC returned to over $66,000, marking its best week since the early days of March and making investors greedy again.

Speaking of a weekly scale, some of the most impressive gainers from the larger-cap alts include Solana, which skyrocketed earlier this week, and Chainlink, which tapped a multi-month peak of over $16.

Market Data

Market Cap: $2.533T | 24H Vol: $78B | BTC Dominance: 51.6%

BTC: $66,455 (+5.35%) | ETH: $3,086 (+2.1%) | BNB: $580 (-2.61%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Strong Amid Market Volatility: Bitfinex, Despite bitcoin’s retracement from the end of last week, Bitfinex highlighted in a report from Monday that all the network’s fundamentals have remained strong, even though the difficulty had declined slightly.

The Floppening: Ethereum Can’t Stop Losing Ground To Bitcoin. The graph above shows that ETH has failed to produce gains similar to those of BTC. In fact, the second-largest cryptocurrency has declined in value a lot compared to bitcoin in the past several months, making the so-called ‘flippening’ more of a distant dream than a potential reality.

Morgan Stanley Reveals $269 Million Investment in Grayscale’s GBTC. Publicly listed US giants had to disclose their financial activities during the first quarter of the year in separate filings to the US SEC. As such, several big names, such as Morgan Stanley, outlined multi-million dollar investments in different Bitcoin ETFs.

Wisconsin State BTC Investment Could Cause Chain Reaction From Other States. One of the other notable and perhaps surprising names on the BTC bandwagon list was the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB). Its $164 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs raises the question of whether other similar entities will follow suit.

CME Group Plans Spot Bitcoin Trading Amid Rising Wall Street Demand. CME Group, a traditional finance giant that has a rich history with the cryptocurrency industry, is reportedly looking into entering the spot Bitcoin trading market, something that the firm has avoided in the past. This could create lots of competition for established names like Coinbase and Binance.

ShibaSwap 2.0 Goes Live On Shiba Inu’s Layer 2 Blockchain. Shiba Inu’s ecosystem has been among the most active in the past year or so, and this week marked the migration of the native decentralized exchange to Shibarium in the form of ShibaSwap 2.0.

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Senator Lummis Posts Bitcoin Laser Eyes After Passed Crypto Legislation

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U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis recently posted “Bitcoin laser eyes” on X, showing her support for laws supporting the cryptocurrency.

The move follows the passing of legislation H.J.Res. 109 in the Senate, which aims to overturn the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 121.

Senator Lummis Advocates for Bitcoin Legislation

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, representing Wyoming, is well-known for her advocacy of Bitcoin. She views the asset as a dependable store of value and a safeguard against inflation. Serving on the Senate Banking Committee, she aims to enforce a regulatory framework that fosters crypto innovation while safeguarding consumers.

The Senate recently passed legislation targeting the dismantling of SAB 121, which imposes stringent restrictions on financial institutions, preventing them from acting as custodians for digital assets like Bitcoin. Under the Congressional Review Act, H.J.Res. 109 aims to eliminate these barriers, allowing regulated financial firms to provide custody services for cryptocurrencies.

Prior to the legislation’s passage, Senator Lummis vocalized her support for overturning SAB 121. She denounced it as a rule disguised as accounting guidance crafted and implemented by SEC staff without majority commission approval.

Recently, Senator Lummis, along with Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, penned a letter to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland expressing concerns over the perceived divergence in the Department of Justice’s interpretation of “money transmission” regulations. They argued that this deviation from FinCEN’s established definition could criminalize fundamental aspects of crypto networks, affecting responsible financial innovation in the U.S.

White House Cites Investor Protection Concerns

Meanwhile, the White House has clearly stated its opposition to the passed legislation. A recent statement indicated that President Biden would veto the bill if it reached his desk. He might argue that overturning SAB 121 would undermine the SEC’s efforts to protect investors in the crypto-asset markets and safeguard the broader financial system.

Critics of SAB 121 believe that the rule is excessively restrictive and limits financial institutions’ ability to meet the growing demand for Bitcoin services. They argue that these institutions, with their established compliance frameworks and security protocols, are well-equipped to manage the risks associated with digital asset custody.

Despite the Senate’s approval, the future of H.J.Res. 109 remains uncertain due to the potential presidential veto. If President Biden follows through on his veto promise, it would stop the resolution’s progress, maintaining the current restrictions on financial institutions’ custody of digital assets. Biden has the option to sign the bill into law, veto it, or take no action, in which case the bill would become law without his signature.

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LINK Explodes 18% Daily, BTC Maintains $66K as Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price tapped a multi-week high yesterday at around $66,600 before it was pushed down by about a grand but has reclaimed the $66,000 level as of now.

Several altcoins have continued their recent rally, with LINK taking the main stage following a massive 18% surge.

BTC Back to $66K

The primary cryptocurrency had a tough end of the previous business week when it was brought down to just inches above $60,000. Instead of going below that coveted round-numbered milestone, though, the asset bounced off during the weekend and especially on Monday.

The bulls initiated an impressive leg-up at the start of the current week that drove bitcoin to just over $63,000. It failed there at first, dropping to $61,200 amid some Coinbase issues, but went back on the offensive on Wednesday after the US announced the CPI numbers for April.

As the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows kept increasing on Wednesday and Thursday, BTC’s price soared to a three-week high of just over $66,500. The asset retraced slightly yesterday evening but has jumped back above $66,000 as of now amid the fourth consecutive day of positive flows into those ETFs.

Its market cap remains slightly above $1.3 trillion, but its dominance over the alts has taken a hit and is down to 51.7%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 17.05.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 17.05.2024. Source: TradingView

LINK Skyrockets

Most alternative coins turned green yesterday in a similar fashion to bitcoin. While some, such as BNB, DOGE, TON, TRX, and SHIB, are slightly in the red now, most others have kept climbing.

Ethereum and Ripple are up by 0.5-1%, which has helped the former maintain $3,000 and the latter $0.5. More gains come from the likes of SOL, ADA, AVAX, DOT, BCH, HBAR, and ICP.

However, Chainlink has stolen the show from the larger-cap alts. LINK has skyrocketed by more than 18% in the past day and now trades above $16.

The total crypto market cap has remained relatively still on a daily scale at just over $2.5 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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