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Commodities

Oil slips on signs of weak fuel demand, strong dollar

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By Florence Tan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices extended declines on Monday amid signs of weak fuel demand and as comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes of interest rate cuts, which could slow growth and crimp energy use in the world’s biggest economy.

futures slid 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.72 a barrel by 0624 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $78.21 a barrel, down 5 cents.

“Oil markets shrugged off the impact of the Middle East conflicts and shifted (their) attention to the world economic outlook again,” Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng said.

China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, suggesting that business demand remained sluggish, she said, adding that recent U.S. economic data signalled a slowdown as well.

Both benchmarks settled about $1 lower on Friday as Fed officials debated whether U.S. interest rates are high enough to bring inflation back to 2%, offsetting gains earlier last week over concerns of supply disruptions from the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Analysts expect the U.S. central bank to keep its policy rate at the current level for longer, supporting the dollar. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

Oil prices also fell amid signs of weak demand, ANZ analysts said in a note, as U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories rose in the week ahead of the start of the U.S. driving season.

Refiners globally are struggling with slumping profits for diesel as new refineries boost supplies and as mild weather in the northern hemisphere and slow economic activity eat into demand.

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Still, the market remained supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together known as OPEC+, could extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, is committed to voluntary oil production cuts agreed by OPEC and is keen to cooperate with member countries on efforts to achieve more stability in global oil markets, its oil minister told the state news agency on Sunday.

The minister’s comments followed his suggestion on Saturday that Iraq had made enough voluntary reductions and would not agree to any additional cuts proposed by the wider OPEC+ producer group at its meeting in early June.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ called out Iraq for pumping over its output quota by a cumulative 602,000 barrels per day in the first three months of 2024. The group said that Baghdad had agreed to compensate with additional production cuts over the rest of the year.

“Iraq has fallen short of its additional voluntary cuts since the beginning of the year and so the willingness and ability for Iraq to cut more is likely limited,” ING analysts said in a note.

“There will likely be increased noise in the lead-up to the next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled for 1 June.”

In the U.S., the oil rig count fell by three to 496 last week, their lowest since November, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report on Friday.

Commodities

Oil prices settle lower after weak August jobs report adds to demand concerns

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Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand. 

At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.

U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report

The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.

Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.

Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.

U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions 

Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia. 

The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

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Commodities

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ production increases to start in December

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(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.

OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.

However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.

The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.

Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]

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Commodities

Citi, Bank of America see oil prices potentially going to $60

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Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.

While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.

“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.

They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.

“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.

OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.

Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.

The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.

“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.

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