Commodities
Oil prices rise on US inventories drawdown expectations
By Noah Browning
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Wednesday on expectations for higher demand as the U.S. dollar weakened and a report showed and gasoline inventories fell while the release of inflation data may point to a more supportive economic outlook.
futures were up 39 cents, or 0.5%, at $82.77 a barrel at 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.44 a barrel.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.104 million barrels in the week ended May 10, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
Gasoline inventories fell by 1.269 million barrels and distillates rose by 673,000 barrels.
U.S. government inventory data is due later on Wednesday and are likely to also show a drop in crude stockpiles as refineries increase their runs to meet increased fuel demand heading into the peak northern hemisphere summer driving season.
Still, the International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth on Wednesday by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, largely citing weak demand in developed OECD nations.
“Prices will remain range bound between $80-$90 through 2Q24,” said Macquarie global oil and gas strategist Vikas Dwivedi.
“After 2Q, we expect oil will become bearish as a result of non-OPEC supply growth, decreasing OPEC+ space capacity and softer-than-anticipated demand due to persistent inflation.”
U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data is also due on Wednesday and should give a clearer indication whether the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year, which could spur the economy and boost fuel demand.
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Oil prices also found support from a softer U.S. dollar and concerns around Canadian oil supply.
A large wildfire is approaching Fort McMurray, the hub for Canada’s oil sands industry that produces 3.3 million barrels per day of crude, or two-thirds of the country’s total output.
Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.
The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.
“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.
Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]
Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.
While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.
“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.
They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.
“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.
OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.
Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.
The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.
“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.
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