Forex
Dollar holds steady as investors wait for Fed guidance
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/dollar-holds-steady-as-investors-wait-for-fedguidance_664b66102b920.jpeg)
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar was firm against the euro on Monday as investors awaited further clues to help them figure out the path of U.S. interest rates in the wake of cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, even as inflation showed signs of cooling.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday it will take a while for the U.S. central bank to be confident that inflation is on track back to the central bank’s 2% goal.
“The issue right now is when are we going to be certain that inflation is clearly on a path back to 2%. I think it’s going to take a while before we know that for sure,” Bostic said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Besides Bostic, several other Fed speakers are due to speak on Monday and later in the week. Markets will also focus on minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, which are due on Wednesday.
The euro was 0.05% down against the dollar at $1.0836. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.3% to 156.15 yen.
Data last week showed U.S. consumer prices rose less-than-expected in April, leading to markets pricing in 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year. Still, various Fed officials have expressed caution about when rates may fall.
With little in the way of economic data on the calendar for the day, most major currency pairs clung to tight trading ranges on Monday.
“I think after CPI passed last week the FX market is rather lacking a catalyst at this stage,” said Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London.
“While the FOMC calendar is, again, stupendously busy, it seems there’s little fresh information that speakers can add at this stage, especially with the reaction function so well-signposted, another hike all but ruled out, and a couple more promising inflation figures, at least, needed to provide the requisite confidence of inflation returning towards 2% before the first cut can be delivered,” Brown said.
Survey-based gauges of the economy for the euro zone, Germany, the UK and the U.S. are due this week.
The euro remained not far from the nearly two-month high of $1.0895 it touched last week. It is up 1.8% so far in May, boosted by a fall in the dollar on the back of softer U.S. growth and inflation data, as well as a pickup in the euro zone economy.
With the Japanese yen weaker on the day, traders remained on alert for signs of government intervention. The currency has moved in tight ranges in the past couple of trading days after a tumultuous start to May in the wake of suspected rounds of currency interventions by Tokyo to prop up the yen.
Sterling was about flat on the day after touching a two-month high of $1.2711, and was last just below that level, ahead of a UK inflation report due on Wednesday.
The Australian dollar was down 0.3% at $0.6671. The has risen 3.1% this month amid high Australian inflation. Monday’s weakness in the commodity-linked currency despite strength in commodity prices bodes ill for the near-term outlook for the Australian dollar, Pepperstone’s Brown said.
“(The weakness) on a day with commodities rallying and equities solid enough, (is) perhaps a canary in the coal mine for antipodean bulls,” Brown said.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was little changed on the day at $67,027, just shy of the five-week high of $67,712 touched in the previous session.
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
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By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
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Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
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Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
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