Cryptocurrency
Will Markets Move With $2.2B in Crypto Options Expiring?
Around $2.25 billion in notional value cryptocurrency options contracts will expire on June 7. Roughly 18,000 Bitcoin options contracts are among them, and these have a notional value of $1.25 billion.
Today’s crypto options expiry event is a lot smaller than last week’s end-of-month contract expiry so impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
Today’s batch of Bitcoin contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.67, with around a third more long contracts expiring than shorts. Moreover, the max pain point, or the price at which most losses will be made, is $70,000. This is currently slightly lower than spot prices, which are just over $71,000 at the time of writing.
According to Deribit, there is almost a billion dollars in open interest (OI) at the $75,000 strike price. OI refers to the number or value of open contracts that have yet to be settled. Bullish derivatives traders are also aiming at $80,000 and $100,000 strike prices, with OI at $890 million and $969 million, respectively.
With the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank initiating interest rate cuts this week and the market performing better driven by both BTC and ETH ETFs, there is a “more optimistic market atmosphere as macro and news diverge significantly,” commented crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live.
It added that Bitcoin’s major term implied volatility is around 50%, and Ethereum is around 55%, “both of which have fallen to a reasonable level.” IV is a measure of future expected volatility derived from expiring contracts.
June 7 Options Data
18,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.67, a Maxpain point of $70,000 and a notional value of $1.25 billion.
260,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.64, Maxpain point of $3,650 and notional value of $1 billion.
With the BOC and… pic.twitter.com/tsSENca8Pu— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) June 7, 2024
Ethereum Options Expiry
In addition to today’s expiring BTC contracts, there are 260,000 Ethereum options expiring with a notional value of $1 billion. These have a put/call ratio of 0.64 and a max pain point of $3,650, slightly lower than the current spot price of $3,820.
Greeks Live observed that this month’s Bitcoin market volatility will be strongly correlated with the macro news of the Fed’s interest rate decision while Ethereum is driven by news of the ETF approvals.
Crypto market capitalization was flat on the day at $2.78 trillion at the time of writing, but it has gained 4% over the past seven days. There has been very little movement for the majority of digital assets over the past 24 hours.
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Cryptocurrency
Top Ripple (XRP) Price Predictions as of Late
TL;DR
- XRP recovered to $2.18 after dropping below $2 last week, with analysts predicting a potential rally.
- While some foresee the asset reaching $100 in the future, achieving this would require an unrealistic market cap exceeding $5 trillion.
XRP Rally Incoming?
The cryptocurrency market correction, which started last week, negatively affected numerous leading digital assets. Ripple’s XRP is one of those, with its price plunging from $2.70 on December 17 to under $2 a few days later. Recently, the bulls recovered some lost ground, pushing the asset’s valuation to the current $2.18.
Despite the fluctuations, multiple analysts on crypto X continue to predict new peaks for XRP in the short term. Mikybull Crypto, for instance, claimed that XRP’s chart “is looking spicy on its current retest,” expecting a rise to a new all-time high of $4.
For their part, EGRAG CRYPTO presented two possible scenarios. The analyst assumed XRP could head toward lower targets if it tumbled below $2. On the other hand, breaking above $2.65 could mean that “fireworks will ignite.”
The X user with moniker Coach, JV also chipped in. Several days ago, they claimed that XRP would be one of those cryptocurrencies that investors will regret not buying now:
“XRP will be one of these assets where people will say, “I could have bought XRP at $2, $5, or $7, and will FOMO in at $100.” The beauty in this. Everyone will win in the long run! It’s the short-term mindset that destroys portfolios!”
It is important to note that reaching a whopping target of $100 will require XRP’s market cap to skyrocket above $5 trillion. As of this writing, the entire capitalization of the crypto sector is less than $3.5 trillion, making the forecast quite unplausible (to say the least).
Previous Predictions
Other industry participants who weighed in recently include the X users Crypto Bitlord and CrediBULL Crypto. The former believes “the final pump for 2024 is loading,” speculating that the price might rally to as high as $12 next month.
CrediBULL Crypto told his 450,000 followers on X that “the XRP/BTC chart looks absolutely fantastic” and “the most bullish-looking chart in the entire space.” As such, the analyst said they will look to open a long position in the coming days.
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Cryptocurrency
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive Asset Management Files for Bitcoin Bond ETF with SEC
Strive Asset Management, led by billionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, has filed a request with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on Bitcoin-linked convertible bonds.
The proposed Strive Bitcoin Bond ETF is designed to offer exposure to bonds issued by corporations that use the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategies.
The Bitcoin Bond ETF
In a December 27 post on X, the firm stated, “Strive’s first of many planned Bitcoin solutions will democratize access to Bitcoin bonds, which are bonds issued by corporations to purchase Bitcoin.”
The announcement further noted that these bonds offer attractive risk-return characteristics associated with Bitcoin but are currently out of reach for most investors. The ETF aims to bridge this gap by providing everyday Americans and institutional investors with easier access to BTC-related financial instruments.
According to the filing submitted on December 26, the proposed ETF will invest in securities from companies like MicroStrategy, which has become a prominent player in corporate Bitcoin adoption.
Since 2020, under the leadership of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has invested approximately $27 billion in the coin. These purchases were financed through equity offerings and convertible bonds, which typically carry low or no interest but can be converted into shares under specified conditions.
The Strive Bitcoin Bond ETF will be actively managed and will achieve its exposure to BTC-linked bonds either directly or through derivatives such as swaps and options. To maintain liquidity and collateral for these instruments, the fund will invest in high-quality, short-term assets like U.S. Treasuries and money market instruments.
While details regarding the management fee have not been disclosed, actively managed funds often come with higher fees compared to passive alternatives.
Strategic Context
Since its start in 2022, Strive Asset Management has focused on addressing long-term economic risks, including the global fiat debt crisis, inflation, and geopolitical tensions.
The company stated, “We strongly believe there is no better long-term investment to hedge against these risks than thoughtful exposure to Bitcoin.”
The asset manager views the flagship cryptocurrency as an important part of a diversified investment portfolio, encouraging both individual and institutional investors to allocate funds directly to Bitcoin, BTC bonds, and companies focused on the cryptocurrency.
Ramaswamy, who launched Strive with a focus on capitalism-driven strategies, has maintained a high-profile presence in both business and politics.
Although he briefly ran against Donald Trump in the 2023 Republican presidential primary, he later endorsed the President-elect. Upon winning, Trump appointed Ramaswamy to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), an initiative aimed at reducing government waste, with X owner Elon Musk.
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Cryptocurrency
Binance’s Bitcoin Taker Buy Volume Hits $8.3 Billion: What It Means for the Market
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling below the $100,000 mark despite a modest 2% surge over the past day.
However, a popular trading metric used to gauge buyer interest in Binance suggests that the cryptocurrency could revisit this crucial price level before the end of the year.
Strengthening Buying Pressure on Binance
Over the past 60 days, Binance’s Bitcoin Taker Buy Volume has reached $8.3 billion and formed three higher lows, indicative of strengthening buying pressure. This metric, which measures the total volume of buy transactions executed by market participants at current order book prices, reflects increasing investor interest in Bitcoin.
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the rise in Taker Buy Volume on Binance has been steady despite occasional market corrections.
This growing buying pressure often correlates with potential price increases, as it indicates that buyers are actively consuming available liquidity at market prices. While the market may appear overheated, the persistence of this trend points to a possible upward price movement in the near term.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have reached their lowest levels since early 2024, following a decline that started in August. This mirrors January’s low, which preceded a 90% rally in BTC’s price. Coupled with a 40,000 BTC drop in OTC desk inventories since November, this trend could potentially indicate rising demand and investor confidence ahead of a much-anticipated bullish reversal.
Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin has remained below the $100,000 mark since December 19, following its initial breakthrough on December 5. With its current value hovering around $96,000, the crypto asset has dropped over 12% from its record high of $108,300 reached on December 17. However, several experts foresee a bullish breakout.
The pseudonymous “xoom,” for one, recently highlighted a bullish engulfing candle with rising volume, indicating a potential price target of $110K to $130K by January’s end, with $120K as a realistic target. Despite possible short-term volatility, the trend suggests BTC could climb to $135K or higher in the coming months.
Another pseudonymous crypto analyst, “Titan of Crypto,” said that Bitcoin’s current price action appears to be similar to the correction fractal from late 2023. Interestingly, 2024’s movements are roughly three weeks ahead in the timeline. While the analyst does not guarantee the same scenario will unfold, the similarities highlight potential bullish momentum, as the cryptocurrency may replicate its previous trajectory and break toward new highs if the pattern persists.
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