Forex
Dollar gains on hawkish Fed, even as inflation cools
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar gained on Thursday despite a soft U.S. producer price inflation report for May, after the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish tone at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday.
Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, with the headline producer price index (PPI) dropping 0.2% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.5% in April. Core prices were flat, after also seeing a 0.5% increase the prior month.
It comes after May’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday was softer than economists had expected, prompting a sharp sell-off in the greenback.
Combined, the CPI and PPI releases make it likely that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will also show softening price pressures.
“Today’s PPI comes on the heels of a softer than expected CPI … which is going to feed into what probably is going to be a somewhat softer core PCE deflator when we get it at the end of the month,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
But optimism over cooling inflation was not enough to keep the dollar down.
The U.S. currency rebounded after Fed officials on Wednesday unexpectedly forecast only one interest rate cut this year and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers were content to leave rates where they are until the economy sends a clear signal that something else is needed – through either a more convincing decline in price pressures or a jump in the unemployment rate.
Other data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a 10-month high last week.
The was last up 0.49% at 105.20. It reached a four-week high of 105.46 on Tuesday, before dropping as much as 1% after Wednesday’s CPI data.
“It was a bit overdone, the reaction (to) that CPI. It was almost a relief that it wasn’t worse. And that’s what sparked such a strong knee-jerk reaction,” said City Index market strategist Fiona Cincotta.
Traders had pared bets that the Fed will cut in September after Friday’s employment report for May showed more jobs growth than expected, while wages also rose more than was anticipated.
Those bets were revived, however, after Wednesday’s CPI report.
Fed funds futures traders now see two cuts this year as likely, with a first cut in September seen as a 68% probability, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
The dollar is likely to remain supported as Fed policy contrasts with more dovish international central banks.
“I’m not convinced that the dollar’s top is in place on this move,” Chandler said. “We might not be yet at the maximum policy divergence.”
The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada have begun cutting rates, and may cut again before the Fed begins easing.
Uncertainty over European elections is also likely to hurt the euro against the greenback.
“This political uncertainty in Europe is sufficient to keep the dollar bid,” Chandler said.
Far-right parties gained ground in European Parliament elections on Sunday, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election in his country.
The euro was last down 0.65% at $1.0739. It fell as low as $1.07195 on Tuesday, the lowest since May 2, before jumping as high as $1.08523 on Wednesday as the dollar weakened.
The yen also fell before the Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Friday when it will consider trimming its bond buying, taking a first key step to reducing its almost $5 trillion balance sheet.
The yen in particular has suffered from the wide divergence between Japanese and U.S. interest rates.
The dollar was last up 0.11% at 156.89 yen.
In cryptocurrencies bitcoin fell 1.86% to $66,801.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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