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Cryptocurrency

Post-FTX Era: Bitcoin Whale Wallets Reclaim Correlation with Market Value

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Bitcoin has declined over the past several days as bears remained vigilant near $70,000. As a result, the premier cryptocurrency has shed more than 4% over the past week and was trading near $66,000 at the time of writing.

Interestingly, wallets with 10 or more BTCs have collectively reached their highest holding level in two years. Data suggests that the absence of FTX’s influence may have potentially allowed the market to reflect demand more accurately.

Whale Wallets Mirror Pre-FTX Collapse Levels

According to the latest findings by Santiment, this period has seen bitcoin’s price surge by approximately 226%. To put it into perspective, this group of wallets collectively held 16.16 million BTC, which is 84.8% of the supply back on June 16, 2022.

Zooming out to June 16, 2024, wallets with 10+ BTC currently hold 16.16 million BTC, which represents 82% of the total bitcoin supply.

Santiment also highlighted the emergence of speculation that former FTX chief and convicted crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried was actively suppressing crypto prices in the latter half of 2022. Since its collapse in November 2022, a clear correlation has emerged between the increased holdings of this wallet cohort and the overall market value of BTC.

“But since the exchange’s collapse in November 2022, there has been an undeniable semblance of correlation between 10+ BTC wallet holdings and the coin’s overall market value.”

This could essentially mean that when FTX was operational, there may have been forces acting to decouple or distort the typical correlation between large-holder buying/selling behavior and market prices. But in the post-FTX era, that correlation appears to have reasserted itself, with the holdings of major Bitcoin whales more directly impacting and reflecting the broader market valuation.

As such, Santiment’s data suggests FTX’s activities may have been an anomalous factor influencing crypto prices until its failure, after which whale wallet holdings have reverted to being a stronger indicator of market trajectory.

Rigged

The mass bitcoin selling was first revealed by Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of FTX’s sister hedge fund, in the dramatic FTX trial last year. She claimed that the disgraced FTX founder had conspired with her to manipulate and keep the bitcoin price below $20,000 using customer funds.

Ellison provided evidence in the form of a document that read, “Keep selling BTC if it’s over $20k.”

The testimony led many experts to believe that bitcoin’s failure to hit $100,000 during the 2021 bull market was due to this artificial sell pressure created by FTX execs.

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Cryptocurrency

Top Shiba Inu (SHIB) Leader Shares a Crucial Scam Alert: Details

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TL;DR

  • LUCIE, Shibarium’s marketing strategist, shared a personal story about falling victim to a scammer who appeared kind and trustworthy.

  • Binance also recently urged users to remain vigilant, as fraudsters continue targeting victims through phishing, fake profiles, and impersonation tactics across social platforms.

Another Alert

Unfortunately, scams are a persistent part of the crypto space – just like in any rapidly growing financial or technological innovation. Wrongdoers use sophisticated techniques to deceive inexperienced victims and embezzle their funds.

Earlier this week, LUCIE – the pseudonymous marketing strategist behind Shibarium – opened up about a distressing encounter with fraudsters years ago. In a post on X, they admitted being “still haunted by the day” bad actors drained their wallet. The experience left a deep emotional scar and was soon followed by yet another attack.

LUCIE said the scammer was “so kind, so sympathetic” and also an English native speaker. These are things that might initially not flash the red flag and cause some investors to fall into the trap. Subsequently, Shibarium’s marketing strategist warned people to be careful and stay safe. 

It is worth mentioning that fraudsters often target the Shiba Inu community. Over the last few years, the meme coin has evolved into a complex ecosystem, whereas the number of investors, developers, and proponents is now in the millions. 

The growing community and the fact that some newcomers might have little-to-no experience could be among the reasons why scammers have shifted their focus on that front. 

Not long ago, one SHIB-related X account alerted people that wrongdoers had created fake profiles on the social media platform to deceive with “promises of giveaways, exclusive content, or investment opportunities.” LUCIE was among the targets, and the hackers replicated their personal account.

Binance Users Should Keep Their Guard up

The users of the world’s largest digital asset exchange also comprise a substantial portion of the global cryptocurrency community. Approximately a week ago, the company sounded the alarm about phishing scammers who present themselves as Binance staff on Telegram and other platforms. 

The team advised its customers to pay attention to suspicious messages and to always double-check information before clicking on unknown links. Binance’s CEO Richard Teng shared the warning, emphasizing that people’s vigilance is of utmost importance:

“We’re here 24/7, but your vigilance is the first line of defense.”

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BTC Price Slips as Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Begin to Take Profits

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Analysts at the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant believe it is time to monitor the activity of long-term bitcoin (BTC) holders. This is due to their impact on the price trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency.

According to a report by the pseudonymous analyst Avocado onchain, Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) suggests that long-term BTC holders are beginning to realize profits amid bitcoin’s latest rally.

Long-term Holders Are Taking Profits

CDD tells the average age of coins spent or moved in any transaction by multiplying their number by the days they were held before spending. Binary CDD shows if the movement of the coins is relative to historical spending patterns. This is to say that the metric reveals whether Supply-Adjusted CDD was above or below the wallet’s historical average on any given day.

Binary CDD gives insight into long-term holder spending behavior patterns in the crypto market. This metric is high when long-term BTC holders become active, indicating that long-dormant coins have begun to move. However, the indicator becomes low when long-term holders become inactive.

Notably, Binary CDD spikes when long-term holders start taking profits during bitcoin’s surge to new highs. In the last leg of the 2021 bull run, the 30-day moving average of Binary CDD rose above 0.8 as long-term investors began to actualize profits. Similarly, the metric also climbed past 0.8 when BTC jumped to new highs in March and December 2024.

Bitcoin is Cooling Off

Avocado onchain has disclosed that Binary CDD was rising again alongside bitcoin’s price recovery over the last few days. Currently, the metric hovers around 0.6, indicating that long-term holders are realizing profits. A continuous spike towards and above 0.8 is a sign that this cohort of investors is still offloading their assets, likely to short-term traders.

As predicted by experts, BTC is now cooling off after its recent rally that drove prices into overbought territory on higher time frames. CryptoPotato reported that the asset showed signs of exhaustion after climbing to a key resistance level close to $106,000.

At the time of writing, the leading crypto asset was changing hands around $102,390, having fallen almost 3% from the $105,300 range. Regardless of the brief correction, analysts say Bitcoin metrics have aligned for an incoming sustained bull run.

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1,000,000 ETH: Could This Massive Move Ignite Another Price Rally?

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TL;DR

  • Ethereum’s massive exchange outflows and increased whale accumulation fuel optimism for a continued uptrend.

  • However, ETH’s RSI on the daily scale has climbed to 71, entering overbought territory and signaling a potential short-term correction.

Ready for Another Catapult?

The second-biggest cryptocurrency has taken center stage lately, with its valuation soaring in the past few weeks and outperforming bitcoin (BTC) and many other leading digital assets. On Мay 13, the price for one ether (ETH) surged past $2,700 for the first time since late February. 

In the following days, there was a slight retracement, and currently, the asset is worth roughly $2,550 (per CoinGecko’s data). Still, this represents a significant increase compared to the crash below $1,400 observed at the start of April and a 54% rise on a monthly scale.

ETH Price
ETH Price, Source: CoinGecko

According to some important metrics, there’s much more room for growth. The popular X user Ali Martinez revealed that around one million ETH had been withdrawn from exchanges in the last month alone. The USD equivalent of this significant stash is more than $2.5 billion. As CryptoPotato previously reported, nearly half of the amount was withdrawn in the past seven days.

The development indicates a shift from centralized exchanges toward self-custody methods and is generally considered a bullish factor since it reduces the immediate selling pressure. 

Additionally, many well-known X users have pointed to the increased whale activity lately. CryptoJack claimed that large investors have been loading up ETH “like never before.” It is worth mentioning that he showed the buying spree of Abraxas Capital, an investment company that recently acquired millions of tokens. 

The whales’ actions are closely monitored by smaller players who may decide to follow suit and hop on the bandwagon. Large-scale accumulation also reduces the available supply of ETH, and when paired with steady or rising demand, this can create upward pressure on the price.

Meanwhile, multiple analysts have recently made optimistic predictions about the short term. X user Kamran Asghar set the next target at $2,800, while CRYPTOWZRD expects a successful breakout of the $2.8K resistance level, which could push the price toward $3,550. 

Those willing to explore additional forecasts involving ETH can take a look at our dedicated article here.

This Indicator Suggests a Possible Pullback

Despite the overall bullish conditions and opinions, ETH’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) warns about a potential downward trajectory in the short term. The momentum oscillator measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to help traders assess possible trend reversals. 

It varies from 0 to 100, and readings above 70 typically signal that ETH has entered overbought territory and could soon experience a correction. The RSI on a daily scale is set at 71.

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