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What Will Happen to the XRP Price if Ripple Loses its Case Against the US SEC

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TL;DR

  • If Ripple loses the SEC lawsuit, XRP’s price could drop significantly, and the entire cryptocurrency market might experience increased volatility.
  • The regulator initially sought a $2 billion penalty, but the latest proposal is $102.6 million, while the company argues for a fine not exceeding $10 million.

The Possible Effect

The lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) entered its trial phase in April this year.

Some might see the company with the upper hand, considering its three partial court wins secured throughout 2023. However, the regulator also has a chance to emerge victorious. As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT what would happen to XRP’s price if Ripple lost the case.

The AI-powered chatbot estimated that such a resolution could lead to a significant drop in the asset’s value since “investor confidence may be shaken.”

Ripple might also face hefty fines and be required to amend its operational practices, which could significantly harm its reputation and result in reduced adoption and use of XRP. 

ChatGPT further claimed that a victory for the SEC would mean Ripple’s native token classifies as a security, leading to stricter regulatory oversight. Affecting the employment of XRP in global financial services and cross-border transactions may also be among the setbacks.

Last but not least, Ripple’s potential loss could negatively affect the entire cryptocurrency market.

“The decision could trigger significant market volatility, with potential declines in the prices of various cryptocurrencies due to increased uncertainty and fear of further regulatory actions,” ChatGPT concluded.

From $2 Billion to $102 Million

The size of Ripple’s potential penalty has become a major issue in the lawsuit. Initially, the SEC sought a staggering $2 billion fine on the firm, accusing it of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling its XRP token.

Ripple opposed the idea, claiming the amount should not exceed $10 million. One of its main reasons is that there are no direct allegations of fraud in its case against the agency (unlike the one between the SEC and Terraform Labs, where the defunct crypto firm agreed to pay a $420 civil penalty).

Most recently, the Commission softened its tone, proposing a $102.6 million penalty:

“Ripple avoids comparing the Terraform settlement’s penalty to the gross profit of the violative conduct. That ratio ($420 million/$3.587 billion) is significantly higher: 11.7%. Applying it to the $876.3 million in gross profits, the SEC here asks the court to disgorge, which results in a much larger figure, a $102.6 million penalty, than the $10 million ceiling Ripple insists on.”

The lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC is complicated and dates back to December 2020. Those curious to learn about its specifics and possible impact on XRP’s price, feel free to take a look at our dedicated video below:

 

 

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Cryptocurrency

Gary Gensler Officially Out: What Does It Mean for Ripple (XRP)?

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TL;DR

  • Gary Gensler was replaced with pro-crypto advocate Mark Uyeda.
  • The lawsuit between Ripple and the securities regulator continues, with the XRP army expecting a favorable resolution after the changes at the agency’s helm.

Gensler’s Tenure is Over

Gary Genslerthe former Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)officially stepped down on January 20. He spent almost four years at the helm, during which the regulator filed countless lawsuits against crypto businesses.

Perhaps the most popular is the legal tussle versus Ripple Labs (the company behind the cryptocurrency XRP). The entities have been at war since December 2020, and despite the numerous developments and court rulings, the case remains ongoing.

Gensler’s resignation coincided with Donald Trump’s return to the White House as America’s 47th President. Upon assuming power, the Republican enforced multiple amendments. Among those was the designation of Mark Uyeda as Gensler’s successor. 

Uyeda is known as a proponent of balanced regulation that ensures investor protection while avoiding regulatory overreach. He has also presented himself as an advocate of the crypto industry, criticizing the SEC’s previous leadership for its negative stance on the matter. 

“The Commission’s war on crypto must end, including crypto enforcement actions solely based on a failure to register with no allegation of fraud or harm,” Uyeda said in November last year.

The crypto community has long desired Gensler’s resignation and his replacement with someone more open toward the industry. Uyeda’s appointment might sound like great news, but the XRP army should keep in mind that the final resolution of the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC is no easy task and could be prolonged in time due to the complexity of the legal process.

Perhaps XRP’s recent rally that started after the US elections could be attributed to a large extent to the hopes of a more favorable regulatory landscape in the country during the Trump administration. However, those who have pushed for a quick resolution could be disappointed as Gensler’s departure doesn’t necessarily mean the case is done. As such, the company’s native token might correct hard if it turns out that there’s a classic ‘sell-the-news’ event unfolding.

Meanwhile, the American attorney Jeremy Hogan noted that Uyeda will serve as acting Chairman of the securities regulator until the permanent one is confirmed. He expects this to happen in March or April this year.

Not long ago, Trump nominated Paul Atkins to lead the agency. The latter is also considered a proponent of cryptocurrencies but we have yet to see whether the Commission will change its approach once he steps in charge.

Ripple v. SEC: What’s New?

As mentioned above, the lawsuit between the entities has witnessed many developments in the past few months. Most recently, the SEC filed an opening brief requesting the US Court of Appeals to overturn Judge Torres’ decision from 2023. Back then, the magistrate ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges to retail investors did not constitute securities transactions.

Some of Ripple’s executives were not pleased with the regulator’s latest actions. CEO Brad Garlinghouse described the filing as “insanity,” whereas CLO Stuart Alderoty called it “a rehash of already failed arguments” that are likely to be abandoned by the next administration. 

“We’ll respond formally in due time. For now, know this: the SEC’s lawsuit is just noise. A new era of pro-innovation regulation is coming, and Ripple is thriving,” the latter added.

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‘Buy Crypto’ and ‘Buy Solana’ Google Searches Skyrocket After Trump Meme Coin Release

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Search volumes for the terms “buy crypto” and “buy Solana” have reached their highest scores on Google Trends.

The surge in interest aligns with the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin over the weekend ahead of the president’s inauguration.

Search Trends Data

According to data from Google Trends, both search terms have hit the maximum score of 100, indicating a peak in global interest. Similarly, search interest in “Coinbase” and “crypto app” also experienced significant increases.

Further, searches for “Bitcoin” and “Crypto” saw spikes over the past week, with the former hitting a score of 100 and the latter reaching 92 on January 20.

According to The Block Research, mentions of “Bitcoin” on X also grew from 247,000 in the second week of January to 495,000 in the third. Similarly, “Ethereum” mentions jumped from 73,600 to 293,000 during the same period.

The analysts suggested that this increase in social media activity could be a reflection of rising participation from retail audiences, with casual users and influencers playing a key role in the growing crypto conversation.

TRUMP Meme Coin Ignites Crypto Market Activity

President Trump recently made headlines when he rolled out his new meme coin over the weekend. Initially met with skepticism by some traders who questioned its legitimacy due to similar tokens in the market, the asset gained traction after Trump addressed the launch on X, writing, “My new Official Trump meme is here! It is time to celebrate everything we stand for: Winning!”

Once authenticity was confirmed, TRUMP experienced a rapid price rally. Its value exploded after going live, with the token reaching a high of $75.35 and a market cap briefly surpassing $15 billion ahead of the president entering office.

However, the price surge did not last. CoinGecko data shows that TRUMP’s market capitalization has since dropped to around $7.7 billion, with its price falling by 32.3% in the last 24 hours, to trade at $38.90.

Incidentally, the launch also had a positive impact on Solana’s native token, SOL, which recently reached an all-time high of around $293. Analysts have attributed this jump in the cryptocurrency’s price to the hype surrounding the TRUMP meme coin.

In general, many crypto influencers and analysts view the development as a major event for capital formation in the crypto sector. However, not all industry participants are convinced by the recent excitement. Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan cautioned against the speculative nature of meme coins, describing them as a “zero-sum lottery” with no genuine wealth creation.

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Cryptocurrency

Ripple (XRP) Achieves a Major Adoption Milestone: Details

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TL;DR

  • Ripple (XRP) has surged 500% in less than three months, with the number of wallets surpassing 6 million and ecosystem activity increasing.
  • Analysts foresee the asset reaching new highs, with targets between $4.40 and $6, despite recent dips linked to broader market corrections after Trump’s inauguration.

XRP’s Progress

Despite its plunge on a daily scale, Ripple’s XRP has been on a tear in the past few months. Recall that the price was hovering at around $0.50 at the beginning of November last year, while currently, it is worth over $3 (representing a 500% increase).

XRP Price
XRP Price, Source: CoinGecko

This impressive rally could be one reason behind the rising adoption. According to the latest data, the total number of XRP wallets exceeded 6 million. This should be considered a serious achievement, considering that the figure stood at around 5 million at the start of 2024. 

This development coincides with other Ripple-related metrics that have been on the rise recently. Some examples include the number of executed XRP transactions and the number of newly activated accounts. 

Reaching the aforementioned milestone, plus the increased ecosystem activity, suggests an expanding user base, which could boost demand and create additional upward pressure on the price. 

XRP Forecasts

The list of analysts predicting that the token is poised for further gains is quite substantial. Most recently, the popular X user Ali Martinez claimed XRP “has broken out of a bullish flag” and is now gearing up for a new all-time high of $4.40. 

Mikybull Crypto envisioned a similar target, maintaining that the asset has “one of the strongest bullish charts out there.” 

Other market observers who chipped in lately include the X users CEO and Dark Defender. The former thinks XRP could skyrocket to $6, whereas the latter believes the asset may never plunge below $3 again.

It is important to note that Dark Defender made their forecast on January 20, when the price was trading well above $3.15. However, several hours later, it dipped below $3 following the plunge of the entire cryptocurrency market once Donald Trump officially became America’s 47th President.

During his inauguration, he touched upon multiple topics but failed to mention the digital asset industry, which might explain the dip. As CryptoPotato reported, the correction resulted in over $200 million in liquidations within an hour, as hundreds of thousands of traders were wrecked.

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