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Will Today’s Big $6.6B Bitcoin Options Expiry Send Markets Back Down?

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This Friday, around 107,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire, with a notional value of $6.6 billion.

Moreover, it is an end-of-month expiry event, which is much larger than usual end-of-week expiries so there may be a little market volatility.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Today’s huge tranche of BTC derivatives has a put/call ratio of 0.5, meaning that twice as many long (call) contracts are expiring as shorts (puts). The max pain point, or price at which most losses will be made, is $57,000, which is around $4,000 lower than current spot prices.

Bulls remain in charge of Bitcoin options markets with more than $340 million in open interest at higher strike prices of $70K, $75K, and $80K. Moreover, total OI ramps up to $590 million at $90K and $770 million at the $100K strike price, according to Deribit.

Crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live commented that June had been a tough month for the crypto market, “with a more pessimistic atmosphere as BTC and ETH prices at one point approached the max pain point, which investors thought was impossible to reach.”

It added that, despite the volatility in the market, the implied volatility, a measure of future volatility from expiring contracts, did not show a significant rise, with BTC below 50% IV for all major terms.

In addition to the big batch of Bitcoin options, around a million Ethereum options are expiring today. These have a put/call ratio of 0.59, a max pain point of $3,100, and a notional value of $3.6 billion. This pushed the total crypto options expiration notional value to over $10 billion.

Ethereum ETF news will be clearer early next month, observed Greeks Live, which added that the implied volatility “will be under strong downward pressure for a few days after today’s delivery.”

Crypto Market Impact

Total market capitalization has recovered a little from its dip earlier this week to hover around the $2.4 trillion mark. However, sentiment remains bearish, and markets have been downtrending throughout June.

Bitcoin recovered to top $62,000 on June 28, but it retreated to $61,500 at the time of writing. The asset appears to be consolidating at this level following its dip below $60K on June 24.

Ethereum prices had also recovered from their five-week low of $3,260 on Monday. The asset had returned to $3,430 at the time of writing.

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ETH Withdrawals Surge to $1.2B Weekly as Price Nears 3-Month High

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In the last seven days, Ethereum (ETH) has defied market odds and reversed its price trajectory, rallying to a level last seen in mid-February 2025.

This surge in the value of the second-largest cryptocurrency comes amid aggressive accumulation from market participants and declining sell-side pressure.

ETH Records Large Exchange Withdrawals

According to a tweet by the institutional-grade decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock), ether has witnessed an intense and sustained trend of net outflows from centralized exchanges since the beginning of the month.

Ethereum investors have withdrawn more than $1.2 billion worth of ETH from trading platforms within the last seven days. This happened just as ETH recorded a 52% rally in its price, jumping from less than $1,800 to at least $2,730. Massive accumulation trends like this often signal that investors are moving their assets off exchanges to hold in the long term, hoping for significant price appreciation.

ETH has remained dormant for most of this bull cycle, and this has caused investors and market participants to dismiss its bullish potential for this season. However, the asset’s sudden breakout from a resistance zone that has held it down for months triggered a shift in market sentiment.

Investor sentiment moved from fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) due to ether’s underperformance to the fear of missing out (FOMO) as traders scrambled for entry points amid the rally. As more traders try to get into the market, demand for ETH will increase. With sell-side pressure decreasing amid massive withdrawals from exchanges, ETH is bound to experience higher surges in the near term.

Most ETH Holders in Profit

Ether’s ongoing price appreciation has increased the percentage of addresses holding the cryptocurrency in profit to more than 60%. This is a significant development compared to 32% of addresses in profit roughly a month ago.

While most analysts believe ether’s rally is not just the result of a short squeeze, others have warned that the asset could consolidate between $2,400 and $2,700 before its next leg up. Nevertheless, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez has identified the range between $2,060 and $2,420 as the most crucial support floor for ETH. Here, there are 10 million wallets holding more than 69 million ETH.

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Retail Bitcoin Investors Are Returning — A Sign of Renewed Confidence?

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Every major bitcoin (BTC) rally during bull seasons has always seen the active participation of retail investors. While retail activity has been low in the last three months, the situation is changing.

Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that retail investors have begun to return to the Bitcoin market as BTC has maintained its upward momentum over the past few weeks.

Retail Investors Are Coming Back

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán explained that retail investors, who are the most sensitive to market fluctuations, are gradually returning to the Bitcoin ecosystem. This cohort of market participants refers to those with BTC balances ranging from $0 to $10,000.

Since BTC began to recover on April 9, the market has witnessed a significant increase in retail buying, as seen in the Retail Investor (Volume $0 to $10K by USD) Demand 30D Change metric. The indicator turned positive on April 28 and recorded a 3.4% surge in purchases from retail investors from then until May 13.

The growth suggests the market is witnessing a notable recovery in retail investor interest. The trend also shows renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s potential, reinforcing bullish narratives and increasing buying pressure. This renewed confidence can become a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next price movements, as higher demand often drives positive momentum.

More Rally Incoming?

Notably, the entrance of retail investors may indicate the beginning or middle of a bull cycle, especially if institutional buyers have positioned themselves. Hence, if BTC continues its current rally, more retail investors could flock into the market, triggering an even more significant surge.

“This could benefit the entire crypto space, as small investors are likely to diversify into other projects, including DeFi, staking, futures, and other instruments. All signs point to this shift in retail behavior being the start of a new wave of mass adoption in the cryptocurrency market,” Alemán stated.

The CryptoQuant analyst added that increased retail participation can lead to growth in active addresses, new addresses, transfer volume, and Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count. This will reflect an expansion of the crypto ecosystem in the coming months.

Meanwhile, BTC was changing hands around $102,770 at the time of writing, after crossing $100,000 for the first time in three months. The asset was showing a 21% monthly and 9% weekly surge.

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Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Cardano (ADA) Are ‘Gems With 100x Potential,’ Says Analyst

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TL;DR

  • Shiba Inu (SHIB) is gaining momentum, with analysts pointing to certain catalysts for a potential triple-digit price surge in the current cycle.

  • Cardano (ADA) is described as “built to last,” with some predicting a breakout to $1.60 in the short term and possibly $3 by year-end.

SHIB Bull Run on the Way?

The popular X user Henry recently claimed to have explored more than 500 cryptocurrencies to determine which ones are the “gems with 100x potential,” and Shiba Inu (SHIB) found a spot in the prestigious club.

The analyst suggested that the “SHIB movement [has] just started,” adding that the meme coin has much more room for growth due to the increased Shibarium adoption and the aggressive token burns. Henry is not the first to predict that further advancements in the layer-2 blockchain solution could positively impact Shiba Inu’s price. Not long ago, the Bitcoin advocate Jeremie Davinci said:

I like Shiba Inu, as you know, and I think it will do relatively well in this cycle, but it may not go as high as you expect. I think Shiba Inu has a lot of utility now that they have Shibarium, and basically, it’s a chain that you can actually run all kinds of applications.

However, nobody is using it, and there are no applications for using your tokens on Shibarium yet. If they get that solved, Shiba Inu will go to the moon.”

Shibarium officially went live in the summer of 2023 and is specifically designed to foster the development of the meme coin’s ecosystem. Earlier this year, the total number of transactions processed on the protocol surpassed the milestone of one billion.

Henry also reminded that analysts predict a solid surge for Shiba Inu this year. The market observer shared their optimism, envisioning a “huge pump which is going to break all the past levels ATH and will be at least 790%.”

How About ADA?

Cardano’s native token was also on the list. Henry described it as the ocean: “calm, deep, and misunderstood.” However, the analyst argued that when ADA moves, it makes waves across the entire market. 

They further suggested that the asset was “built to last” and that Cardano “is shaping infrastructure.” In their view, ADA’s price is set to reach $3 later this year.

Other industry participants who recently touched upon the token’s performance and made optimistic predictions include Captain Faibik and STEPH IS CRYPTO. The former forecasted a “massive bullish rally” above $1.60 in the short term. 

The latter did not provide exact numbers, simply envisioning that ADA is about “to go parabolic.”

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