Stock Markets
Fed rate cut debate to heat up as US job market cools
By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers got more evidence of U.S. labor-market cooling on Friday that could boost their confidence they are winning their fight on inflation, and open the path to a more active debate on interest-rate cuts when they next meet in late July.
The Labor Department report showing a rise in unemployment and a decline in job creation is just the latest in a string of recent data offering more evidence of slowing than what U.S. central bankers had in hand at their June meeting.
At that time, many of them felt inflation progress was so lacking and the economy still so strong that they would likely cut rates only once this year, if at all. Since then, the data has marched in the opposite direction. A couple of inflation reports have shown prices did not rise at all from April to May; other reports have signaled a slump in services and manufacturing activity and rising job openings and layoffs.
Friday’s job report did not show big cracks in the labor market – indeed, job gains in June, at 206,000, outpaced economists’ expectations.
But the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, and large revisions to prior-month estimates of job creation meant the average monthly payroll gain over the most recent three months has downshifted to 177,000.
That’s below the 200,000-a-month gain that Fed Governor Lisa Cook recently estimated the economy now needs just to keep up with immigration and other increases to the population.
Average hourly earnings were up 3.9% from a year earlier, and 0.3% from a month earlier, Friday’s report showed. That puts annualized wage growth for the last three months at about 3.6%, nearing a pace consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation objective.
U.S. central bankers meeting July 30-31 are not expected to change their policy rate from the 5.25%-5.5% range it has been in since last July.
But the new data, which suggests the labor market is nearing a healthier balance, could put a rate cut at the following meeting in their sights.
“Overall, a moderation in payrolls in Q2 coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate and a slower growth path suggested by recent data bolster the case for rate cuts this year,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist of High Frequency Economics. “We think the Fed could certainly start the discussion about cutting rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and lower the policy rate in September, if the data continue to show moderation.”
Fed policymakers at their June meeting signaled they see just one interest-rate cut this year, a forecast that pointed to a December start to any policy easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said they would need to be confident inflation is heading to their 2% goal before cutting rates.
He also said any unexpected weakening in the labor market could also trigger a rate cut.
The increase in the unemployment rate last month from 4% still leaves that widely used gauge of labor-market health below levels historically associated with a downturn.
But the rising rate, which was 3.7% in January and 3.5% last July, paints an economy on a more fragile footing than the raw number might suggest. Unless it declines in July, it would trigger what’s known as the Sahm rule, an indicator for recession.
And while the post-pandemic economy has repeatedly bucked expectations and undercut long-held correlations, analysts are wary.
“We now have definitive evidence of U.S. labor market cooling with a somewhat alarming rise in the unemployment rate in recent months that should give policymakers ‘more confidence’ that consumer inflation will soon return to the 2% target on a sustainable basis,” said BMO Chief U.S. Economist Scott Anderson.
Powell is slated to address Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and investors will be paying close attention to his views on the latest data and what it means for the Fed’s policy path.
On Thursday investors will get the June reading on the consumer price index, which last month showed inflation had resumed its cooling trend.
Financial markets are pricing in a 78% chance of a September rate cut, up from about 72% before the June jobs report. Traders are also pricing in a second rate cut in December more firmly than previously.
By Maggie Fick and Ahmed Aboulenein
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Members of Donald Trump’s presidential transition team are laying the groundwork for the United States to withdraw from the World Health Organization on the first day of his second term, according to a health law expert familiar with the discussions.
“I have it on good authority that he plans to withdraw, probably on Day One or very early in his administration,” said Lawrence Gostin, professor of global health at Georgetown University in Washington and director of the WHO Collaborating Center on National and Global Health (NS:) Law.
The Financial Times was first to report on the plans, citing two experts. The second expert, former White House COVID-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha, was not immediately available for comment.
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The plan, which aligns with Trump’s longstanding criticism of the U.N. health agency, would mark a dramatic shift in U.S. global health policy and further isolate Washington from international efforts to battle pandemics.
Trump has nominated several critics of the organization to top public health positions, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic who is up for the post of secretary of Health and Human Services, which oversees all major U.S. health agencies including the CDC and FDA.
Trump initiated the year-long withdrawal process from the WHO in 2020 but six months later his successor, President Joe Biden, reversed the decision.
Trump has argued that the agency failed to hold China accountable for the early spread of COVID-19. He has repeatedly called the WHO a puppet of Beijing and vowed to redirect U.S. contributions to domestic health initiatives.
A WHO spokesperson declined to directly comment but referred Reuters to comments by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a press briefing on Dec. 10 in which he was asked whether he was concerned that the Trump administration would withdraw from the organization.
Tedros said at the time that the WHO needed to give the U.S. time and space for the transition. He also voiced confidence that states could finalize a pandemic agreement by May 2025.
Critics warn that a U.S. withdrawal could undermine global disease surveillance and emergency response systems.
“The U.S. would lose influence and clout in global health and China would fill the vacuum. I can’t imagine a world without a robust WHO. But U.S. withdrawal would severely weaken the agency,” Gostin said.
U.Today – MicroStrategy has made headlines again by purchasing 5,262 BTC for approximately $561 million at an average price of $106,662 per BTC. The company now holds a staggering 444,262 BTC, accumulated at a total cost of approximately $27.7 billion, with an average purchase price of $62,257 per BTC.
Despite impressive returns of 47.4% since the beginning of the quarter and 73.7% since the beginning of the year, skepticism about the company’s strategy is growing.
It is believed that to sustain its purchases, MicroStrategy raises capital through methods such as issuing convertible and corporate bonds, securing credit lines and selling shares.
This cycle appears to operate as follows: shares are sold to acquire the cryptocurrency, and the rising price per BTC increases asset value, enabling further loans, which are then reinvested in more purchases.
Some observers warn that a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price or MicroStrategy’s stock could trigger a cascade effect. A sharp fall in MSTR shares would weaken the collateral backing its loans, potentially leading to forced asset sales, including BTC.
This scenario could exert downward pressure on the broader cryptocurrency market, as the company holds 2.2% of the global Bitcoin supply now.
Thus, while some view Michael Saylor’s approach as a bold bid to cement the cryptocurrency’s role in the financial system, others see it as unsustainable. History offers a cautionary note: in 2000, MSTR shares surged to $333 before plummeting 99%, a collapse that took 24 years to recover from.
National homebuilder ranked No. 12 on inaugural list ranking companies based on trust
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., Dec. 23, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — With a longstanding reputation for trust, national homebuilder and land developer Taylor Morrison (NYSE:) (NYSE: ™HC) has been recognized by Forbes on their inaugural list of the Most Trusted Companies in America. The homebuilder ranked No. 12 out of 300 companies across all industries.
“There are few things more powerful than trust and it’s something we strive to earn amongst all company stakeholders, from our customers to our team members, our shareholders, and our local communities,” said Taylor Morrison Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer. “To be included on this esteemed list in its inaugural year is especially meaningful and these awards are important reminders of the relationships we’re building across all aspects of our business.”
Fueled by hundreds of millions of data points, the Most Trusted Companies in America list combines data on a wide range of factors across four categories: employee trust, customer trust, investor trust and media sentiment. The ranking was created in partnership with research companies HundredX, Signal AI and Glassdoor.
Taylor Morrison also earned the No. 67 spot on Forbes’ inaugural America’s Best Companies list. The ranking is Forbes’ most comprehensive company ranking to date and factored in ratings for financial performance, customer and employee satisfaction, cybersecurity, sustainability, companies’ remote work policies, media coverage and more. Forbes’ America’s Best Companies list assessed more than 60 metrics across 11 primary categories to identify which organizations excel across the board. Of the more than 2,000 U.S.-based publicly traded companies that were eligible, only 300 qualified for each list.
In addition to being named among the Most Trusted and Best Companies in America by Forbes, Taylor Morrison holds several additional accolades including being named on Newsweek’s America’s Most Responsible Companies and America’s Greenest Companies lists, U.S. News & World Report’s Best Companies to Work For list, the American Opportunity (SO:) Index, America’s Most Trusted ® Home Builder for nine years, Hearthstone’s 2021 BUILDER Humanitarian Award, and inclusion on the Fortune 500 list since 2021.
About Taylor Morrison
Headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, Taylor Morrison is one of the nation’s leading homebuilders and developers. We serve a wide array of consumers from coast to coast, including first-time, move-up, luxury and resort lifestyle homebuyers and renters under our family of brands”including Taylor Morrison, Esplanade and Yardly. From 2016-2024, Taylor Morrison has been recognized as America’s Most Trusted ® Builder by Lifestory Research. Our long-standing commitment to sustainable operations is highlighted in our annual Sustainability and Belonging Report.
For more information about Taylor Morrison, please visit www.taylormorrison.com.
CONTACT:
media@taylormorrison.com
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