Forex
Dollar slips after Biden pulls out, euro rebounds after losses
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower Monday following U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign, with the euro benefiting despite its weak tone after last week’s European Central Bank meeting.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 103.942, flipping after posting its first weekly gain in three last week.
Dollar retreats amid political uncertainty
The dollar has retreated following the weekend’s news that President Biden will no longer seek reelection, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his potential replacement.
“Investors will now switch their attention to how Kamala Harris fares against Donald Trump in the opinion polls – assuming she is appointed the presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention on 19-22 August,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
The dollar had received a boost as the likelihood of a Trump presidency grew following Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month and questions about his age and health.
The main economic data release this week will arrive on Friday, with June’s personal consumption expenditures index set to test market expectations that the Federal Reserve is all but certain to cut interest rates in September.
Economists are expecting the to have climbed 0.1% for the second straight month, which would bring three-month annualized core inflation down to the slowest pace this year, below the Fed’s 2% target.
Euro bounces in wake of ECB decision
rose 0.2% to 1.0893, bouncing after weakness in the wake of the keeping rates steady at its meeting last week.
Analysts flagged that the ECB offered no concerted push back at last week’s policy meeting on the heavy pricing for a cut in September, which remains a strong base case.
“This week’s eurozone business sentiment readings, due Wednesday and Thursday, will help shape the narrative that policy is too restrictive and could prompt a little downside for the euro,” said ING.
Markets are pricing in almost two ECB rate cuts for the rest of the year.
traded 0.1% higher at 1.2931, after topping 1.30 for the first time in a year last week in the wake of the decisive election victory for the Labour Party, ending 14 years of sometimes chaotic Conservative rule.
“Some are no doubt making the case that this is a removal of the Brexit risk premium in sterling, aided by new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s desire to engage more closely with Europe,” said ING.
“While we have some sympathy with that view, we ascribe sterling strength more to sticky UK inflation and the limited pricing of BoE rate cuts this year, plus July’s drop in the dollar on the back of softer US price data.”
Yuan slips after PBOC rate cut
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.2727, close to levels last seen in November.
Weakness in the yuan came after the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut its benchmark to further loosen monetary policy and support the economy.
The cut comes as China struggles with a slowing economic recovery- concerns over which have added to mounting pressure on the yuan.
Recent weakness in the yuan also came amid concerns over a Trump presidency, given that Trump has maintained a negative rhetoric towards Beijing.
fell 0.5% to 156.63, with the yen continuing to see wild swings amid speculation that the Japanese government has intervened in currency markets.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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