Forex
Commodity currencies struggle, carry trade churn helps yen, Swiss franc
By Tom Westbrook and Alun John
SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -Commodity currencies slid to multi-week lows on Wednesday on weakening raw material prices, with the heaviest selling against the yen which surged to its highest in two months as short sellers bailed out ahead of next week’s central bank meeting.
The Canadian dollar hit a three-month low of C$1.38 per dollar, ahead of a likely second rate cut in as many months by the Bank of Canada at its meeting later in the day.
The Australian dollar fell as much as 0.5% and at $0.6583 was only a few pips from chart support at the early June low. It fell more than 1% on the yen to 101.79 yen and is down nearly 7% against the Japanese currency in two weeks. [AUD/]
The New Zealand dollar fell 0.6% to a near three-month low of $0.5914.
The moves tracked falling prices for industrial metals such as iron ore and , which made 3-1/2 month lows on a gloomy outlook for Chinese demand, and risk aversion in stock markets following some disappointing U.S. earnings. [MET/L]
“We’re seeing softer demand in China and Asia in general and the and just being pulled down,” said Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ in Wellington.
The euro suffered after soft business activity dataand was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.10842 and fell 0.14% on the pound to 83.99 pence as the picture looked perkier in Britain.. [GBP/]
But the European common currency continued to climb against peers to the north, and hit a new eight-month top on the Norwegian crown of 12.00 crowns and a two-month high of 11.727 on the Swedish crown.
“These are the two least liquid currencies in G10, and we suspect markets are particularly punishing this aspect and rebuilding those shorts that had been trimmed throughout May and June,” said Francesco Pesole FX strategist at ING.
In Asia, the risk of a rate hike for Japan and recent rounds of suspected currency intervention have speculators rushing to close what had been profitable “carry” trades funded in yen. The Bank of Japan reviews policy next Tuesday and Wednesday.
In a carry trade investors borrow in a low-yielding currency to invest in higher-yielding assets denominated other currencies.
Dollar/yen went down nearly 1% on Tuesday and fell another 0.7% on Wednesday to its lowest since mid-May at 154.28 per dollar. The yen is the best performing G10 currency against the dollar in July so far.
Moves in other pairs have been larger, with the euro dropping 1.3% on the yen Tuesday and a further 0.86% to an 11-week low of 167.43 on Wednesday.
Mexico’s high-yielding peso dropped 2% on the yen on Tuesday and another 1.1% on Wednesday.
The churn in yen funded carry trades also had an effect on the other favoured funding currency, the Swiss franc, against which the dollar was down 0.43% at 0.8875 francs and the euro was down 0.57% at 0.9620.
Later in the week, markets are waiting on U.S. GDP and core PCE data to test expectations for two U.S. rate cuts over the rest of this year.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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