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Asia FX firms on rate cut bets, yen at 5-mth high on hawkish BOJ

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies strengthened on Thursday as the dollar dropped after the Federal Reserve signaled that an interest rate cut was close, while the Japanese yen hit a five-month high on hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. 

But the Chinese yuan lagged its peers, as did the Australian dollar following more weak economic signals from Asia’s biggest economy. 

The and were nursing steep losses after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that a September rate cut was possible on more encouraging inflation and labor market data.

His comments saw markets almost entirely pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, along with a small chance of a 50 bps cut, showed.

The prospect of lower interest rates boosted most Asian currencies.

Japanese yen firms further, USDJPY below 150 on hawkish BOJ

The yen was the best performer in Asia on Thursday, extending strong gains from the prior session after the Bank of Japan and flagged more potential increases this year. 

The yen’s pair dropped past the 150 yen level for the first time since March, extending a sharp decline seen through most of July.

The BOJ hiked its short-term interest rate by 15 basis points and flagged plans to halve its pace of quantitative easing only by early-2026. The yen had initially logged a volatile reaction to this move, given that the extended timeline for cutting back QE was viewed as dovish.

But comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda tilted perception of the BOJ back into hawkish territory. Ueda said the BOJ was prepared to raise interest rates even higher this year on an expected increase in inflation and improving economic conditions. 

Ueda stated that higher wages were set to increase consumption and inflation, which was in line with the central bank’s expectations.

He also said that 0.5% was not an upper limit for the BOJ in raising rates.

The prospect of higher domestic interest rates and lower U.S. rates bode well for the yen, which has underperformed for the past two years. But strength in the yen also unwound a broader carry trade. 

Chinese yuan lags on more economic woes

The Chinese yuan lagged most of its Asian peers on Thursday following more weak purchasing managers index data from the country. 

The pair rose 0.2%, logging wild swings in recent sessions as traders grappled with weak readings from the country.

data showed an unexpected contraction in China’s manufacturing sector, coming in line with government PMI data from Wednesday.

The readings drummed up concerns over a wider slowdown in China’s biggest economic engines, and further soured sentiment towards the country. They also sparked more calls for stimulus measures from Beijing.

Concerns over China weighed on the Australian dollar, with falling 0.2% on the currency’s large trade exposure to China. Stronger-than-expected data did little to boost the Aussie, given that the trade surplus remained close to four-year lows.

Other Asian currencies advanced on the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates. The South Korean won’s pair fell 0.4%, while the Indian rupee’s pair steadied after falling sharply from record highs on Wednesday.

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Japanese yen subdued despite BOJ deputy governor’s rate hike hint

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Investing.com– The Japanese yen exhibited minimal movement on Tuesday, despite Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino indicating a potential hike in the upcoming policy meeting.

Himino suggested that the central bank might consider raising rates, citing sustained wage growth and expectations of a clearer U.S. policy landscape following President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural address later this month.

The yen’s pair edged 0.1% higher to 157.62 yen on Tuesday.

In recent months, the BOJ has been adjusting its monetary policy to address rising inflation. In March last year, it ended its negative interest rate policy, and by July, it had increased the short-term policy rate to 0.25%.

These measures aim to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, supported by robust wage growth and a weakening yen, which have contributed to higher import costs.

Despite these developments, the yen’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable, reflecting market skepticism about the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.

Analysts suggest that while the BOJ is signaling a shift towards policy normalization, uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions and domestic wage dynamics may lead to a cautious approach.

Barclays (LON:) expects the central bank to implement rate hikes in March and October, with a terminal rate of 0.75%.

The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for January 23-24, where new growth and price projections will be discussed.

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UBS notes hedge funds sell GBP amid UK fiscal worries

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US dollar to stay stronger for longer, UBS says

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Investing.com — UBS strategists expect the US dollar “to stay stronger for longer,” citing robust US economic activity and ongoing tariff concerns impacting other regions.

Monday saw the (DXY) soar to its highest level since November 2022, trading above the 110 mark during the session. This represents a roughly 9% appreciation since late September.

The US dollar’s recent strength has been bolstered by better-than-expected domestic data, including nonfarm payrolls and the services sector purchasing managers’ index. These positive indicators have led to a decrease in the anticipated number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the consequent rise in US yields lending broad support to the USD.

While US economic data is expected to remain solid in the near term, the outlook for Europe is less optimistic, with subdued growth prospects.

Although growth in China is forecasted to accelerate to 5% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, the threat of US tariffs poses a significant risk. Political and economic uncertainties in South Korea, the European Union, and the UK have been linked to weakness in their respective currencies.

According to UBS, potential monetary policy divergence is among the key factors that could further propel the dollar upward in the near term.

While the Fed is expected to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in the second and third quarters, the European Central Bank is projected to reduce rates by 100 basis points in the first half of the year.

“Policy divergence is a powerful driver of currencies, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates,” strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote.

The firm also points out that tariff risks may not be fully accounted for in the current USD valuation. Despite the dollar’s recent rally being largely attributed to solid US macroeconomic data, the introduction of new tariffs could drive the dollar even higher.

UBS suggests that if tariffs are implemented, the DXY could trade between 110 and 115, with significant impacts on other major currency pairs.

“If tariffs were to materialize, DXY could trade in a 110-115 range, could drop below parity, could slide below 1.20, and could move toward 0.94, in our view,” strategists noted. 

However, the investment bank believes that the story of 2025 could be a tale of two halves, with the dollar strength in the first half of the year potentially reversing in the second half.

The current trading position of the USD, which is considered strongly overvalued and shows the highest level of dollar net length since 2015, supports this view.

UBS’s revised forecasts for the EUR/USD pair reflect this expected trajectory. Strategists expect the pair to trade at 1.00 in March, 1.02 in June, and 1.06 in December 2025.

In the case of China, despite the possibility of dramatically higher effective tariff rates, the CNY has only partially priced in this risk, with UBS reiterating its forecast for the to reach 7.50 by June.

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