Commodities
Avocado goldrush links US companies with Mexico’s deforestation disaster
By Cassandra Garrison
URUAPAN, Mexico (Reuters) – On a sweltering July afternoon, two large yellow bulldozers dug into the brown soil at the bottom of a lush avocado orchard near the small town of Madero, located in central Mexico’s Michoacan state.
Drone footage recorded by Reuters captured the earth movers hollowing the ground, in what Mexican environmental group Guardian Forestal – which collaborates with the Michoacan state government – and an activist who reviewed the video described as an attempt to construct a water reservoir.
Mexican law requires an environmental impact study and permit to store and use water for resource-intensive avocado farming. Data from the national water authority Conagua showed only 42 reservoirs and wells in Madero were registered with permits. However, two activists interviewed by Reuters said there were hundreds of similar water pools in the area.
With Michoacan battling a drought, avocado producers often resort to taking water from lakes or communal basins, draining them to worrying lows, according to three local and state officials.
Illegal practices in Mexico’s avocado heartland, which is expanding rapidly to feed growing demand in the United States, come at the expense of nearby forests, according to Michoacan government officials.
The environmental damage has prompted U.S. nonprofit the Organic Consumers Association to file lawsuits against unlisted West Pak Avocado Inc and another major avocado importer Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc for labeling Mexican avocados as “sustainable” or “responsibly sourced.”
“Contrary to West Pak’s representations, its avocados are neither responsibly sourced nor environmentally sustainable,” the Organic Consumers Association, a Minnesota-based lobby group that has sued various food and agriculture companies over marketing claims, said in one of the lawsuits.
West Pak declined to comment and Fresh Del Monte did not respond to questions for this story.
The U.S. lawsuits filed in DC Superior Court Monday shine a spotlight on the supply chains of some U.S. companies operating in the Mexican avocado industry.
While lucrative for the growers, the industry is under increasing pressure from organized crime groups and facing accusations of rising environmental damage.
Reuters visited two orchards in July that an analysis of satellite images by U.S. nonprofit Climate Rights International showed were illegally deforested in Madero after 2015.
Climate Rights International identified these two orchards as having sold avocados to West Pak as recently as December and January, according to Mexican government shipping records, also reviewed by Reuters.
During a July visit, the news agency’s journalists observed the farm machinery digging a water reservoir on one of them.
The lawsuits, filed by Irvington, N.Y.-based law firm Richman Law and Policy on behalf of the Organic Consumers Association, demand an injunction be put in place that would require West Pak and Fresh Del Monte to remove their marketing claims of a sustainable supply chain, citing water scarcity, climate change and a decline in the migration of endangered Monarch butterflies that flock yearly to Michoacan.
The Organic Consumers Association is also asking the court to declare that the two avocado importers are violating the District of Columbia’s consumer protection law, and to bar them from continuing such conduct.
AVOCADO DEMAND SKYROCKETS
Avocado exports to the United States have soared 48% since 2019, according to U.S. trade data. The U.S. market accounts for about 80% of Mexico’s total avocado exports, data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows, a trade worth $3 billion last year.
In February, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar said avocados sourced from illegal orchards should be blocked from the U.S. market. There has been no government action from either Washington or Mexico to do so.
The voracious U.S. demand for the staple ingredient of guacamole divides communities in Mexico, where it is both a driver of economic growth and the catalyst for an environmental and social crisis.
Dubbed “green gold” among Mexicans, the avocado trade has attracted crime groups that extort payments from producers and have acted as muscle for others by displacing people and deforesting the once-verdant countryside, according to 10 locals interviewed by Reuters in Michoacan.
Climate Rights International, whose findings are cited in the Organic Consumers Association’s lawsuits, said it has documented more than 30 threats or acts of intimidation associated with the expanded avocado trade, including four abductions and five fatal shootings.
One Madero farmer, who asked to remain anonymous due to concerns for his safety, said he was was kidnapped after he protested deforestation. “If they only knew … behind every avocado that people in the United States eat, there is a bloodstain, a dead person, a missing person,” he said.
Reuters could not independently verify the accounts from the local residents or Climate Rights International’s findings.
Up to 70,000 acres in Michoacan and neighboring Jalisco state have been deforested for avocado farming in the last decade, the data from Guardian Forestal and Climate Rights International show.
Residents told Reuters some local people fight back by destroying the illegal water pumps installed by producers that drain communal reservoirs.
“They have even gone to destroy avocado orchards,” said Claudia Alejandra Sanchez, an activist for Michoacan’s Purepecha indigenous people.
Climate Rights International, which has tracked human rights violations linked to climate change including in Mexico’s avocado trade, told Reuters it contacted West Pak, Fresh Del Monte and other U.S. importers and supermarket chains including Whole Foods Market, Costco (NASDAQ:), Trader Joe’s and Target in April and November last year regarding their supply chains. Reuters reviewed copies of letters shared by Climate Rights International.
Yet the importers and U.S. retailers still sell avocados sourced from illegally deforested orchards in Michoacan, according to a new report by Climate Rights International and Guardian Forestal exclusively reviewed by Reuters.
The new data shows West Pak, Fresh Del Monte and other importers kept shipping from illegally deforested orchards even after being informed of the deforestation in their supply chain, according to Climate Rights International’s analysis of trade records.
The two importers’ avocados landed on the shelves of U.S. supermarkets, the Climate Rights International’s findings showed. Most of those companies have publicly pledged to adhere to sustainable supply chains in compliance with local laws.
Reuters requested comment from nine major U.S. supermarkets and food chains that sell Mexican avocados to ask how they ensured their supply chains were free of illegal deforestation and violent exploitation.
Only Amazon (NASDAQ:)’s Whole Foods Market responded, saying it was actively working with its suppliers to “prioritize Fair Trade certified and other responsibly sourced avocados.”
Daniel Wilkinson, Climate Rights International’s senior adviser, said: “If these companies are serious about their public commitment to sustainability, they could easily clean up their supply chains and greatly reduce the main incentive driving the deforestation and attacks on local communities.”
‘SET MOUNTAINS ON FIRE’
Mexico requires legal permission to convert forest to agricultural land and has not granted such authorizations in Michoacan for nearly three decades, Michoacan’s Secretary Of Environment Alejandro Mendez told Reuters.
“About eight or ten years ago it was pure wilderness here,” said Madero’s environmental director Savas Melchor Gomez, standing in front of the orchard’s trees. “They set the mountains on fire to clear them and continue expanding, and it goes on and on.”
To deal with endemic logging, Michoacan officials plan to establish an online platform that offers public information about illegally deforested orchards.
The platform, which officials said they want to launch this month, would certify avocados from orchards that do not deforest illegally.
Michoacan Governor Alfredo Ramirez said the platform should enhance transparency by allowing foreign governments and companies to see where avocados from illegally deforested areas are going.
“So far, no large supermarket has approached us over this issue… but we do not really see an interest in it, these companies taking any responsibility,” Ramirez said in an interview.
Activists, local officials and researchers who spoke to Reuters estimated the true number of illegal orchards in Michoacan was likely in the thousands and would not be properly identified by the platform, which only includes illegal deforestation after 2018.
Commodities
Natural gas prices outlook for 2025
Investing.com — The outlook for prices in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, influenced by a mix of global demand trends, supply-side constraints, and weather-driven uncertainties.
As per analysts at BofA Securities, U.S. Henry Hub prices are expected to average $3.33/MMBtu for the year, marking a rebound from the low levels seen throughout much of 2024.
Natural gas prices in 2024 were characterized by subdued trading, largely oscillating between $2 and $3/MMBtu, making it the weakest year since the pandemic-induced slump in 2020.
This price environment persisted despite record domestic demand, which averaged over 78 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), buoyed by increases in power generation needs and continued industrial activity.
However, warm weather conditions during the 2023–24 winter suppressed residential and commercial heating demand, contributing to the overall price weakness.
Looking ahead, several factors are poised to tighten the natural gas market and elevate prices in 2025.
A key driver is the anticipated rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as new facilities, including the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 projects, come online.
These additions are expected to significantly boost U.S. feedgas demand, adding strain to domestic supply and lifting prices.
The ongoing growth in exports to Mexico via pipeline, which hit record levels in 2024, further underscores the international pull on U.S. gas.
On the domestic front, production constraints could play a pivotal role in shaping the price trajectory.
While U.S. dry gas production remains historically robust, averaging around 101 Bcf/d in 2024, capital discipline among exploration and production companies suggests a limited ability to rapidly scale output in response to higher prices.
Producers have strategically withheld volumes, awaiting a more favorable pricing environment. If supply fails to match the anticipated uptick in demand, analysts warn of potential upward repricing in the market.
Weather patterns remain a wildcard. Forecasts suggest that the 2024–25 winter could be 2°F colder than the previous year, potentially driving an additional 500 Bcf of seasonal demand.
However, should warmer-than-expected temperatures materialize, the opposite effect could dampen price gains. Historically, colder winters have correlated with significant price spikes, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to heating demand.
The structural shift in the U.S. power generation mix also supports a bullish case for natural gas. Ongoing retirements of coal-fired power plants, coupled with the rise of renewable energy, have entrenched natural gas as a critical bridge fuel.
Even as wind and solar capacity expand, natural gas is expected to fill gaps in generation during periods of low renewable output, further solidifying its role in the energy transition.
Commodities
Trump picks Brooke Rollins to be agriculture secretary
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Brooke Rollins (NYSE:), president of the America First Policy Institute, to be agriculture secretary.
“As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American Farmers, who are truly the backbone of our Country,” Trump said in a statement.
If confirmed by the Senate, Rollins would lead a 100,000-person agency with offices in every county in the country, whose remit includes farm and nutrition programs, forestry, home and farm lending, food safety, rural development, agricultural research, trade and more. It had a budget of $437.2 billion in 2024.
The nominee’s agenda would carry implications for American diets and wallets, both urban and rural. Department of Agriculture officials and staff negotiate trade deals, guide dietary recommendations, inspect meat, fight wildfires and support rural broadband, among other activities.
“Brooke’s commitment to support the American Farmer, defense of American Food Self-Sufficiency, and the restoration of Agriculture-dependent American Small Towns is second to none,” Trump said in the statement.
The America First Policy Institute is a right-leaning think tank whose personnel have worked closely with Trump’s campaign to help shape policy for his incoming administration. She chaired the Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term.
As agriculture secretary, Rollins would advise the administration on how and whether to implement clean fuel tax credits for biofuels at a time when the sector is hoping to grow through the production of sustainable aviation fuel.
The nominee would also guide next year’s renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, in the shadow of disputes over Mexico’s attempt to bar imports of genetically modified corn and Canada’s dairy import quotas.
Trump has said he again plans to institute sweeping tariffs that are likely to affect the farm sector.
He was considering offering the role to former U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler, a staunch ally whom he chose to co-chair his inaugural committee, CNN reported on Friday.
Commodities
Citi simulates an increase of global oil prices to $120/bbl. Here’s what happens
Investing.cm — Citi Research has simulated the effects of a hypothetical oil price surge to $120 per barrel, a scenario reflecting potential geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
As per Citi, such a price hike would result in a major but temporary economic disruption, with global output losses peaking at around 0.4% relative to the baseline forecast.
While the impact diminishes over time as oil prices gradually normalize, the economic ripples are uneven across regions, flagging varying levels of resilience and policy responses.
The simulated price increase triggers a contraction in global economic output, primarily driven by higher energy costs reducing disposable incomes and corporate profit margins.
The global output loss, though substantial at the onset, is projected to stabilize between 0.3% and 0.4% before fading as oil prices return to baseline forecasts.
The United States shows a more muted immediate output loss compared to the Euro Area or China.
This disparity is partly attributed to the U.S.’s status as a leading oil producer, which cushions the domestic economy through wealth effects, such as stock market boosts from energy sector gains.
However, the U.S. advantage is short-lived; tighter monetary policies to counteract inflation lead to delayed negative impacts on output.
Headline inflation globally is expected to spike by approximately two percentage points, with the U.S. experiencing a slightly more pronounced increase.
The relatively lower taxation of energy products in the U.S. amplifies the pass-through of oil price shocks to consumers compared to Europe, where higher energy taxes buffer the direct impact.
Central bank responses diverge across regions. In the U.S., where inflation impacts are more acute, the Federal Reserve’s reaction function—based on the Taylor rule—leads to an initial tightening of monetary policy. This contrasts with more subdued policy changes in the Euro Area and China, where central banks are less aggressive in responding to the transient inflation spike.
Citi’s analysts frame this scenario within the context of ongoing geopolitical volatility, particularly in the Middle East. The model assumes a supply disruption of 2-3 million barrels per day over several months, underscoring the precariousness of energy markets to geopolitical shocks.
The report flags several broader implications. For policymakers, the challenge lies in balancing short-term inflation control with the need to cushion economic output.
For businesses and consumers, a price hike of this magnitude underscores the importance of energy cost management and diversification strategies.
Finally, the analysts cautions that the simulation’s results may understate risks if structural changes, such as the U.S.’s evolving role as an energy exporter, are not fully captured in the model.
While the simulation reflects a temporary shock, its findings reinforce the need for resilience in energy policies and monetary frameworks. Whether or not such a scenario materializes, Citi’s analysis provides a window into the complex interplay of economics, energy, and geopolitics in shaping global economic outcomes.
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