Forex
Dollar gains after US jobless claims fall more than expected
By Hannah Lang
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession.
The greenback’s rise was most prominent against the yen, following a sharp drop the day before in a volatile week in which investors have had to digest the unwinding of popular carry trades and how Japanese monetary policy might evolve.
Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown.
The yen was last down 0.37% at 147.205, having slid 1.6% on Wednesday, after the Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of a near-term hike in interest rates that would typically boost the currency.
The sharp moves in the yen pushed the , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. It was last up to 103.21, above Monday’s seven-month low of 102.15.
Still, market participants were bracing for more volatility.
“Regardless of the fact that risk is a bit higher today, the degree of these swings that we’re having on a seemingly daily basis, or at least every other day, I don’t think is a healthy sign,” said Eugene Epstein, head of structured products, North America, at Moneycorp.
The yen started the week by scaling a seven-month high of 141.675 per dollar, a far cry from the 38-year lows where it traded in early July, after soft U.S. jobs data last week stoked recession worries and roiled investors.
A surprise rate hike from the BOJ last week also forced investors to bail out of carry trades, in which they borrow the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for higher returns. This unwinding gave the yen a boost.
A summary of opinions voiced at the BOJ’s July policy meeting showed on Thursday that some board members cited a need to keep raising interest rates, with one saying they should eventually be increased to at least around 1%.
The contrasting opinions from the summary and Uchida on whether the BOJ will continue to raise rates, or pause as a result of market volatility, underscores the delicate task facing the central bank and will likely keep investors skittish.
“As the market pulls back from the edge of the brink … U.S. interest rates have firmed up, and I think this is going to give the dollar/yen a little bit more of a lift,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
Some analysts believe this unwinding in the carry trade may have further to run, and is possibly only halfway there, which could add to volatility.
Even if the U.S. Federal Reserve does deliver a steep rate cut, as most traders are expecting in September, and the BOJ another increase, there would still be an incentive to use the yen to fund other trades.
The Swiss franc, another currency that was used to fund carry trades and that benefited from the unwinding momentum earlier this week, was down 0.47% at 0.866 per dollar, after dropping more than 1% on Wednesday.
The euro was down 0.05% at $1.0917, while sterling was up 0.48% at $1.275.
Investor focus will now be on the U.S. consumer price inflation report for July due next week, as well as comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 22-24.
“Investors need to brace for a bumpy ride,” said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.
The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601. [AUD/]
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 7.6% to $59,334.95, rebounding after falling below the $50,000 mark on Monday. Ether was last up 9.72% to $2,577.70.
Forex
UBS rises its USD/JPY forecast
UBS revised its inflation forecast for Japan, projecting higher inflation rates in the coming years due to a robust US dollar and increased energy prices.
The UBS FX team adjusted their foreign exchange outlook, now expecting the exchange rate to hit 150 by the end of 2025, up from the previous estimate of 145. This adjustment is based on the backdrop of a strong US dollar.
The revised forecast anticipates a 0.1-0.2 percentage point increase in inflation for 2025 and 2026, driven by higher energy costs and consumer price index (CPI) goods. The core-core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices, is projected to remain above 2% through 2025.
UBS now expects it to reach 2.0% year-over-year at the end of 2025, a slight uptick from the previous estimate of 1.9%. UBS also highlighted that food inflation, currently at 4.2% year-over-year, is expected to stay at similar levels at least through the first half of the current year. This is attributed to the yen’s depreciation and unstable supply conditions.
The research firm notes that while service inflation has been relatively low at 1.5%, particularly due to weak housing rent and public services prices, an acceleration in overall service inflation is anticipated.
However, the development of inflation in specific service components, such as housing rent and public services, which respectively account for 37% and 25% of the weight in services within the inflation calculation, remains uncertain. U
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
Bank of America flags dollar longs as crowded, eyes global inflation concerns
Bank of America (BofA) analysts highlighted a shift in market sentiment, identifying long U.S. dollar positions as the most crowded trade, and now a significant headwind for the currency. This perspective aligns with BofA’s recent reports on the U.S. dollar, emphasizing the stark contrast between current market positions and historical trends.
The analysts’ findings indicate a growing apprehension among market participants regarding global inflation, particularly with a re-acceleration anticipated by 2025. Euro Area inflation expectations are notably visible, underscoring the broader concerns about inflationary pressures.
Additionally, while emerging market (EM) investors seem to have discounted the worst-case scenarios related to tariffs, the uptick in sentiment is perceived as tentative. The cautious stance of EM investors reflects the uncertainty and challenges in the global trade environment.
BofA’s analysis suggests that the heavy positioning in favor of the U.S. dollar could be problematic. The report, dated January 14, 2025, points out that the extent of USD long positions is exceptional not only in a historical context but also when compared to the past year’s trends.
Furthermore, the discrepancy between conviction and positioning is evident, as only a fifth of respondents consider long USD their highest conviction trade. This is despite 42% of those surveyed expecting the peak of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to exceed 5%, as revealed in a separate exhibit from the bank’s research.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
Dollar set for losing week; sterling falls further after retail sales
Investing.com – The US dollar edged higher Friday, but was on course for a weekly loss after core inflation eased, while sterling retreated following the release of weak retail sales data.
At 04:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 108.930, but was set for a drop of about 0.5% in the week, which would snap a six-week winning streak.
Dollar set for weekly loss
The dollar has retreated this week after cooler than expected data raised the possibility of easier monetary policy this year, even after policymakers at the Federal Reserve indicated they would be cautious in its approach to cutting rates this year.
Fed Governor said on Thursday three or four rate cuts are still possible if economic data weakens further.
“The perception at the end of a busy week in macro news is that the optimism around a month-on-month slowdown in core inflation is cautious at best,” analysts at ING said, in a note.
“The inherently forward-looking markets are factoring in Trump’s inflationary policies from a starting point that is already significantly above the target. So, despite stretched positioning and short-term overvaluation, the dollar continues to dodge true catalysts for a correction.”
Sterling falls after retail sales dip
In Europe, traded 0.4% lower to 1.2197, after British fell unexpectedly in December, dropping by 0.3% in month-on-month terms in December after a downwardly revised 0.1% expansion in November, raising the risk of an economic contraction in the fourth quarter.
Data released earlier in the week showed that the British economy barely returned to growth in November.
The is expected to cut interest rates in February, with two rate cuts in 2025 largely priced into the market.
fell slightly to 1.0300, ahead of the release of the final eurozone for December.
“EUR/USD appears to have found a short-term anchor at the 1.0300 handle. That is a level that embeds a 2.5-3% risk premium (i.e. undervaluation), which we suspect will not be materially trimmed until more clarity on Trump’s protectionism policy emerges,” ING added.
Yen nears one-month high
In Asia, climbed 0.3% to 155.79, near its strongest level in nearly one month.
The yen firmed sharply this week as several Bank of Japan officials suggested that an interest rate hike was possible when the central bank meets next week.
traded 0.1% lower to 7.3289, after hitting an over one-year high this week.
China’s grew 5.4% in the fourth quarter, more than expectations of 5%, as a barrage of recent stimulus measures bore fruit.
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