Forex
Dollar dips as yen heads for first weekly drop in six
By Hannah Lang
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar was off a one-week high against other major currencies on Friday, capping off a turbulent few days as traders digested a drop in U.S. jobless claims and the prospect of a looming economic downturn.
The U.S. currency was down against the Japanese yen following a three-day rebound, as Thursday’s firmer-than-expected employment data spurred a paring back in bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.
The yen and the Swiss franc – another safe haven currency – hung near one-week lows as major stock markets rose and Treasury yields dipped.
Markets have endured a chaotic week, triggered in large part by surprisingly soft U.S. payrolls figures a week ago that sent global stocks tumbling, while demand for the safety of assets such as the yen and the franc sent those currencies surging to their highest since the start of the year on Monday.
The dollar was last down 0.39% at 146.675 yen, but still on course for its first weekly rise in six weeks.
“There’s been a major desire by market to finally use the yen as a complete source of a safe haven to the chaos and the conflict that’s going on around the world,” said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.
The , which measures the currency against six others, was down 0.136% at 103.14 following three days of gains.
Against the Swiss franc, it eased 0.18% to 0.865 franc but still on track for a weekly advance.
“The prospect of having a pure risk-on environment, pro carry for FX, for the second half of this year, is much less interesting given our forecasts are more conservative on the dollar/yen and the euro/Swiss franc,” said UBS FX strategist Yvan Berthoux.
“We don’t expect more significant unwind to come. The washout has been quite clear in this environment.”
Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, calming fears the labour market was unravelling and reinforcing that a gradual softening remains intact.
The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18 fell to 52%, from 69% a day earlier, with a 25 basis point cut now seen as having a 49% probability, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
UNWINDING OF SHORT YEN DONE?
The yen had shot higher this month, reaching the strongest since Jan. 2 at 141.675 per dollar on Monday, as an unwinding of short positions snowballed, following a surprise rate hike by the Bank of Japan amid weakness in U.S. economic indicators.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures will give a clearer indication later on Friday of the extent of yen buying that has taken place.
The euro was flat at $1.0919, but little changed compared with a week ago. On Monday, it rose as high as $1.1009 for the first time since Jan. 2.
Sterling rose to $1.2756, after a 0.5% rally overnight that yanked it back from a more than one-month low.
The slipped 0.29% to $0.657, while the New Zealand dollar reached a three-week high of $0.6035 before retreating. It was last at 0.5998.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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