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Stocks gain, Treasury yields jump as US retail data reassures

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By Koh Gui Qing and Naomi Rovnick

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -World stocks rose on Thursday and Treasury yields spiked after surprisingly strong U.S. retail sales data soothed fears about slowing economic growth, and tempered investor bets of imminent aggressive interest rate cuts.

Retail sales increased 1.0% last month, well above market forecasts for a 0.3% gain, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Thursday, suggesting that consumers have maintained spending by bargain hunting.

Some investors said the robust data did not alter bets that the Federal Reserve could begin lowering rates in September, but dimmed the chance that the central bank will start easing policy with a hefty 50 basis-point rate cut.

“This diminishes fears of a recession any time soon and it is good news in terms of stocks, but may not be good news for the bond market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

“With this report, we’re back to square one, with the Fed probably cutting rates by 25 basis points in September. Chances are diminishing for a more robust 50 basis-point cut.”

Equity markets welcomed the latest sign of economic resilience. By 1535 GMT, the jumped 1.5%, the added 1.3%, and the leapt 2.2%. [.N]

MSCI’s world share index, which has moved in excess of 1% on more than half of the trading days in August so far, rose 1.1%.

Pressured by speculation that the Fed is likely to reduce rates at a more moderate pace, the benchmark jumped to 3.9321%, while the two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.1097%. [US/]

The jump in Treasury yields offered some respite to the dollar, which gained 0.4% against other major currencies, halting a stretch of losses that took it to its lowest per euro on Wednesday since late 2023. The dollar is also down almost 15% against Japan’s yen since early July.

A firmer dollar weighed on the euro on Thursday, with the common currency down 0.3% at $1.09748. The dollar also strengthened against the yen to 149.1 yen. [USD/]

RISK APPETITE

In Europe, the pan-European index was up 1.2%, although some analysts cautioned investors against complacency.

Nordea chief market analyst Jan von Gerich said the speed of the Wall Street bounce-back was a reason to be wary of further volatility ahead.

“The tentative rebound in risk appetite has happened surprisingly fast, so I would be cautious,” he said.

Wall Street’s fear barometer, the volatility gauge, eased to its lowest point of the month, having soared to a four-year high on Aug. 5.

The Federal Reserve has held its main funds rate at 5.25%-5.5% for more than a year, helping to quell consumer price rises, but also exacerbating some market imbalances that erupted into chaos this summer.

A sustained period of high U.S. rates driving the dollar higher against Japan’s yen screeched to a halt in July, creating a wrecking-ball effect on a popular speculative trade that involved borrowing the Japanese currency to buy U.S. stocks.

A vicious unwinding of this so-called carry trade sparked a market rout last week, although many investors believe the currency-related disruption is almost over.

“I don’t this (has been) a long-term wider market correction,” said James Henderson, equity fund manager at Janus Henderson.

Elsewhere in markets, sterling rose 0.2% to $1.2853 after data showed Britain’s economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, which was in line with economists’ expectations.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 3, 2024.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

price rose 0.3% to $2,454.21 per ounce, close to its July 17 record high, as market speculation that U.S. rates might soon be lowered lifted the non-yielding metal. [GOL/]

Oil markets were also strong on Thursday, with , the international benchmark, 1.8% higher at $81.19 a barrel as the U.S. retail report brightened the outlook for global demand. [O/R]

Stock Markets

Israeli strikes kill dozens in Gaza over 48 hours, Palestinian officials say

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By Nidal al-Mughrabi

CAIRO (Reuters) -Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least 120 Palestinians over the last 48 hours and hit a hospital on the northern edge of the enclave, wounding medical staff and damaging equipment, Palestinian medics said on Saturday.

Among the dead were seven members of one family whose house was hit overnight in the Zeitoun suburb of Gaza City, the health officials said. The rest were killed in separate Israeli strikes in central and southern Gaza.

At the same time, Israeli forces deepened their incursion and bombardment of the northern edge of the enclave, their main offensive since early last month.

A spokesperson for the armed wing of Hamas said a female Israeli hostage in the group’s custody had been killed in a northern area under attack by Israeli forces.

“The life of another female prisoner who used to be with her remains in imminent danger,” spokesperson Abu Ubaida added, accusing the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being to blame.

An Israeli military spokesperson said it was investigating the Hamas report.

“At this point, we are unable to confirm or deny it,” the spokesperson said. “Hamas continues to engage in psychological terrorism and act in a cruel manner.”

A group representing hostages’ families did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

DAMAGE, INJURIES AT HOSPITAL

Israel’s military says its operations in northern Gaza aim to prevent Hamas fighters from carrying out attacks and regrouping. Local residents say they fear the goal is to permanently depopulate a strip of territory as a buffer zone, something Israel denies.

At Kamal Adwan Hospital, one of three medical facilities on the northern edge of Gaza that is barely operational, director Hussam Abu Safiya said the ongoing Israeli bombardment in the area appeared aimed at forcing hospital staff to evacuate – something they have refused to do since the incursion began.

“Yesterday (Friday), from the afternoon until midnight, the bombardment directly targeted the entrance to the emergency and reception area several times,” he said in a statement, adding that 12 staff members including doctors and nurses were injured.

The strike also caused significant damage that disrupted the electrical generator, oxygen supply network and water supply, he added.

Asked to comment on Abu Safiya’s statement, the Israeli military said that following an initial review it was “not aware of a strike in the area of the Kamal Adwan Hospital”, adding that it does everything possible to avoid harming civilians.

Israel says Hamas uses hospitals and civilians as human shields, and has made public videos and photos to support that claim. Hamas rejects the allegations and says it does not use the civilian population or facilities for military purposes.

Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza officials.

The war was launched in response to an attack by Hamas-led fighters who killed 1,200 people and captured more than 250 hostages in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has said.

© Reuters. A Palestinian man inspects a house hit in an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa

Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar having suspended its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.

Hamas wants a deal that ends the conflict, and leads to the release of Israeli and foreign hostages held captive in Gaza as well as Palestinians jailed by Israel, while Netanyahu has said the war can end only once Hamas is eradicated.

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Trump expected to pick Brooke Rollins to be agriculture secretary, WSJ reports

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to pick Brooke Rollins (NYSE:), president of the America First Policy Institute, to be agriculture secretary, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

If confirmed, Rollins would lead a 100,000-person agency with offices in every county in the country, whose remit includes farm and nutrition programs, forestry, home and farm lending, food safety, rural development, agricultural research, trade and more. It had a budget of $437.2 billion in 2024.

Trump’s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The nominee’s agenda would carry implications for American diets and wallets, both urban and rural. Department of Agriculture officials and staff negotiate trade deals, guide dietary recommendations, inspect meat, fight wildfires and support rural broadband, among other activities.

The America First Policy Institute is a right-leaning think tank whose personnel have worked closely with Trump’s campaign to help shape policy for his incoming administration. She chaired the Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term.

If confirmed, Rollins would advise the administration on how and whether to implement clean fuel tax credits for biofuels at a time when the sector is hoping to grow through the production of sustainable aviation fuel.

The nominee would also guide next year’s renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, in the shadow of disputes over Mexico’s attempt to bar imports of genetically modified corn and Canada’s dairy import quotas.

© Reuters. Brooke Rollins, President and CEO of the America First Policy Institute speaks during a rally for Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, in New York, U.S., October 27, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

Trump has said he again plans to institute sweeping tariffs that are likely to affect the farm sector.

He was considering offering the role to former U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler, a staunch ally whom he chose to co-chair his inaugural committee, CNN reported on Friday.

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ICC warrants are binding, EU cannot pick and choose, EU’s Borrell says

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By Michele Kambas

NICOSIA (Reuters) – European Union governments cannot pick and choose whether to execute arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against two Israeli leaders and a Hamas commander, the EU’s foreign policy chief said on Saturday.

The ICC issued the warrants on Thursday against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged crimes against humanity.

All EU member states are signatories to the ICC’s founding treaty, called the Rome Statute.

Several EU states have said they will meet their commitments under the statute if needed, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has invited Netanyahu to visit his country, assuring him he would face no risks if he did so.

“The states that signed the Rome convention are obliged to implement the decision of the court. It’s not optional,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said during a visit to Cyprus for a workshop of Israeli and Palestinian peace activists.

Those same obligations were also binding on countries aspiring to join the EU, he said.

“It would be very funny that the newcomers have an obligation that current members don’t fulfil,” he told Reuters.

The United States rejected the ICC’s decision and Israel said the ICC move was antisemitic.

“Every time someone disagrees with the policy of one Israeli government – (they are) being accused of antisemitism,” said Borrell, whose term as EU foreign policy chief ends this month.

“I have the right to criticise the decisions of the Israeli government, be it Mr Netanyahu or someone else, without being accused of antisemitism. This is not acceptable. That’s enough.”

Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has killed about 44,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population while creating a humanitarian crisis, Gaza officials say.

Israel began its offensive after the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people in southern Israel, with more than 250 others taken hostage, Israel has said.

© Reuters. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the plenum, during a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/

In their decision, the ICC judges said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution and starvation as a weapon of war as part of a “widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza”.

The warrant for Masri lists charges of mass killings during the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Israel says it has killed Masri.

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