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Dollar edges lower ahead of Jackson Hole; euro, sterling higher

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower in early European trade Friday, as a rebound from seven-month lows faltered, ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s eagerly-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. 

At 04:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 101.245, not far removed from lowest levels since Jan. 2. 

Dollar weakens ahead of Powell’s speech

The dollar saw a small rebound earlier in the week, but has still registered losses of around 1% this week, heading for its fifth consecutive losing week.

This weakness followed concerns about a weakening economy and on expectations the Federal Reserve is close to cutting interest rates. 

The focus is now squarely on an address by Powell at the later on Friday, where he is expected to provide more cues on interest rates and the economy.

“He will probably use this speech to prepare markets for a September cut, which is entirely priced in and has been largely anticipated by July’s Fed minutes and recent Fed speakers,” said analysts at ING, in a note. 

“The question is whether he will go as far as opening the door to a 50bp move – if not in September, at a later point this year.”

Markets are now pricing in almost three quarters chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, the CME FedWatch tool showed, with a 50 bps cut becoming less likely.

Euro, sterling gain on weak dollar

In Europe, traded 0.1% higher to 1.1123, not far from the 13-month high it touched on Wednesday.

Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained steady for the third month in a row in July, a European Central Bank survey showed on Friday.

This survey could be used by ECB policymakers as evidence that the public has faith in their ability to bring down inflation to their 2% goal while cutting interest rates.

The ECB has room to cut interest rates possibly two more times this year as inflation remains broadly on the declining path policymakers envisaged, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said. 

“We are broadly along the baseline of our projections and that is consistent with a gradual decline in interest rates,” Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank governor, said on the sidelines of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. 

traded 0.3% higher to 1.3129, just shy of the 13-month high it hit on Thursday after the release of strong activity data for August.

Markets are now pricing in more rate cuts from the Fed by year-end than for the European Central Bank or Bank of England.

Yen gains as Ueda signals rate hikes

In Asia, fell 0.2% to 145.99, with the yen in demand after the Bank of Japan’s Ueda said that short-term interest rates were still too low, and needed to be brought up further to hit neutral levels. 

He also reiterated the bank’s recent messaging that it will raise interest rates further if inflation remains steady. 

Ueda’s comments boosted the yen, which has been on a tear since the central bank hiked rates by 15 basis points in late-July. 

traded 0.1% lower to 7.1372, while gained 0.4% to 0.6732 and rose 0.4% to 0.6159.

 

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Japanese yen subdued despite BOJ deputy governor’s rate hike hint

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Investing.com– The Japanese yen exhibited minimal movement on Tuesday, despite Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino indicating a potential hike in the upcoming policy meeting.

Himino suggested that the central bank might consider raising rates, citing sustained wage growth and expectations of a clearer U.S. policy landscape following President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural address later this month.

The yen’s pair edged 0.1% higher to 157.62 yen on Tuesday.

In recent months, the BOJ has been adjusting its monetary policy to address rising inflation. In March last year, it ended its negative interest rate policy, and by July, it had increased the short-term policy rate to 0.25%.

These measures aim to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, supported by robust wage growth and a weakening yen, which have contributed to higher import costs.

Despite these developments, the yen’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable, reflecting market skepticism about the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.

Analysts suggest that while the BOJ is signaling a shift towards policy normalization, uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions and domestic wage dynamics may lead to a cautious approach.

Barclays (LON:) expects the central bank to implement rate hikes in March and October, with a terminal rate of 0.75%.

The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for January 23-24, where new growth and price projections will be discussed.

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UBS notes hedge funds sell GBP amid UK fiscal worries

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US dollar to stay stronger for longer, UBS says

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Investing.com — UBS strategists expect the US dollar “to stay stronger for longer,” citing robust US economic activity and ongoing tariff concerns impacting other regions.

Monday saw the (DXY) soar to its highest level since November 2022, trading above the 110 mark during the session. This represents a roughly 9% appreciation since late September.

The US dollar’s recent strength has been bolstered by better-than-expected domestic data, including nonfarm payrolls and the services sector purchasing managers’ index. These positive indicators have led to a decrease in the anticipated number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the consequent rise in US yields lending broad support to the USD.

While US economic data is expected to remain solid in the near term, the outlook for Europe is less optimistic, with subdued growth prospects.

Although growth in China is forecasted to accelerate to 5% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, the threat of US tariffs poses a significant risk. Political and economic uncertainties in South Korea, the European Union, and the UK have been linked to weakness in their respective currencies.

According to UBS, potential monetary policy divergence is among the key factors that could further propel the dollar upward in the near term.

While the Fed is expected to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in the second and third quarters, the European Central Bank is projected to reduce rates by 100 basis points in the first half of the year.

“Policy divergence is a powerful driver of currencies, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates,” strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote.

The firm also points out that tariff risks may not be fully accounted for in the current USD valuation. Despite the dollar’s recent rally being largely attributed to solid US macroeconomic data, the introduction of new tariffs could drive the dollar even higher.

UBS suggests that if tariffs are implemented, the DXY could trade between 110 and 115, with significant impacts on other major currency pairs.

“If tariffs were to materialize, DXY could trade in a 110-115 range, could drop below parity, could slide below 1.20, and could move toward 0.94, in our view,” strategists noted. 

However, the investment bank believes that the story of 2025 could be a tale of two halves, with the dollar strength in the first half of the year potentially reversing in the second half.

The current trading position of the USD, which is considered strongly overvalued and shows the highest level of dollar net length since 2015, supports this view.

UBS’s revised forecasts for the EUR/USD pair reflect this expected trajectory. Strategists expect the pair to trade at 1.00 in March, 1.02 in June, and 1.06 in December 2025.

In the case of China, despite the possibility of dramatically higher effective tariff rates, the CNY has only partially priced in this risk, with UBS reiterating its forecast for the to reach 7.50 by June.

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