Bitcoin’s correlation with Wall Street has been climbing for the past several months and, earlier this week, hit a multi-year peak.

This comes at an intriguing time since a few of the largest and most prominent US stock market indexes charted new all-time highs this week.

BTC-Wall Street Correction Rises

The Fed’s interest rate cut from last week didn’t impact positively just crypto as Wall Street headed north as well. Additionally, the Friday US macro data shows that inflation has slowed to 2.2% from August last year. This came from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which some people believe is a more accurate inflation gauge for individuals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted immediately with an increase from 41,921 to 42,616 to register a new all-time high. Despite retracing slightly by the trading day’s end, the Dow was still slightly in the green.

The S&P 500’s performance was similar, as it pumped from 5,722 to over 5,760 to paint a new ATH of its own before correcting to 5,738 at closing bells.

The Nasdaq Composite failed to break its ATH marked in July and even finished the day with a minor retracement.

At the same time, BTC’s price surged past $66,500 on Friday for the first time in two months. According to IntoTheBlock data, these developments increased the positive correlation between Wall Street and bitcoin, pushing the metric to a two-year high.

$BTC‘s correlation with U.S. stocks reached a two-year high this week, a level that was only surpassed in the second quarter of 2022. pic.twitter.com/in6YRZq2Iw

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 27, 2024

When BTC New ATH?

CryptoPotato reported recently that bitcoin’s correlation with gold had also increased to a multi-month peak. The yellow metal’s price has been on a roll as well in 2024, charting fresh peaks frequently. The latest was on Thursday at just shy of $2,690/oz.

As such, the logical question arises: when will BTC break its March all-time high of $73,800? With such a high correlation with assets that have done just that in the span of a week, BTC remains more than 10% away from its own.

Historically, Q4 has been predominantly positive for the largest cryptocurrency, with an average return of roughly 90% in the past decade. Moreover, October and November are the two most bullish months for BTC, which, coupled with the aforementioned data, could mean that a new all-time high is just around the corner.

Bitcoin’s price has broken post a key level recently and is seemingly targeting a new all-time high in the short term.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the price has finally broken above the $64K level and the 200-day moving average, which is located around the same mark.

With the RSI also showing a clear bullish momentum, the cryptocurrency will likely continue its uptrend toward the $68K resistance zone in the short term.

Otherwise, in case of a correction, the 200-day moving average is still likely to hold the price and push the market higher.

The 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the price has been creating higher highs and lows ever since its rebound from the $52K support level.

The market’s bullish move has created a clear trendline, which has been supporting Bitcoin for weeks. If this trend remains intact, it will only be a matter of time before the market reaches the $68K level.

On the other hand, if the trendline gets broken to the downside, at least a pullback to the $60K level would be probable.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR

During the recent Bitcoin price consolidation and gradual correction, many short-term holders, even those not in profit, panicked and sold their coins. This chart shows the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR, which measures the ratio of profits/losses realized by short-term investors.

As the chart suggests, the STH SOPR made a new record high when the price hit $70K first, but it has rapidly declined during the past few months. Short-term holders have even been realizing losses since July, as the metric has dropped below one. However, with the recent price rally, these investors are now realizing profits once again.

While this is a natural behavior in bull markets, if the selling pressure resulting from this profit-taking is not met with sufficient demand, the price could drop lower again.

Four people have sued the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), demanding that it direct more funds from a $4.3 billion settlement it won against Binance into the U.S. Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund (USVSST).

The complainants argued in their lawsuit that the U.S. Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Act, enacted in 2015, requires all criminal proceeds and two-thirds of civil proceeds from settlements like the Binance one to go to the victims’ fund.

Legal Battle Against the DOJ

According to the four, the DOJ has so far deposited just under $900 million into the fund, with the agency allegedly planning to divert at least $1.5 billion to a separate reserve for crime victims.

In their opinion, this action violates the law and has forced them to seek a court order to ensure all qualifying proceeds end up where they are supposed to.

In the last nine years, the USVSST fund has disbursed more than $6 billion to people directly harmed by state-sponsored terror attacks or their surviving representatives.

While the DOJ and Special Master administer the fund, the suit by the four named a wide array of high-profile defendants. They include the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as well as U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Several Treasury Department agencies have also been mentioned, including the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Binance’s Role and Violations

The money in question comes from a November 2023 settlement between Binance and several federal agencies after the former pled guilty to a string of charges, including breaching U.S. sanctions and failing to implement anti-money laundering controls.

Furthermore, the then-CEO of the crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, popularly known as CZ, admitted to accusations of violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). He was forced to resign from his position and pay a $50 million fine.

In addition, a federal court in Seattle, Washington, sentenced him to four months in prison, which he largely served at the Federal Correctional Institution in Lompoc, California. He is reportedly due to be set free on September 27 since his actual release date, September 29, falls on the weekend.

The charges against Binance and CZ stemmed from investigations by the Justice Department’s national security and crimes division, which found that the crypto exchange had allowed Russian nationals to use its services. This was in contravention of sanctions the United States had placed on the European country due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.